Memorial Day Weekend will get off to a benign start, but a stalling front in our neck of the woods will turn things unsettled beginning Sunday.

First, though, let’s shout out Saturday as the pick day for outdoor activities this long weekend. It’ll be a comfortably warm day with a good bit of sunshine and low humidity; expect lows in the mid-60s to warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon, generally right in spitting distance of normal for this time of year.

Enjoy it, because a warm front lifting north into the area on Sunday ushers in some warmer and more humid air, driving up rain chances especially in the afternoon. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, and temperatures will warm to the upper 80s in the afternoon before storms develop and move across the area. Some periods of heavy rain will be possible, with some minor flooding even a possibility in a few spots. The risk for severe weather is low, but a few strong storms can’t be ruled out.

The front will meander across the area on Monday, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances in play for Memorial Day. Recent models suggest we should be on the cooler side of the front, with winds turning to the northeast and keeping high temperatures suppressed to the mid-80s. However, minor fluctuations in the front’s position could change the calculus for temperatures as well as storm intensity. You’ll want to stay tuned to forecast updates in case you’ve got Memorial Day outdoor plans, and make sure you have a backup plan just in case.

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