After several days of periodic, road-flooding deluges, a break is in store for the weekend as a front pushes south of the area. While we could see a few lingering storms on Saturday, we should see a little more in the way of sunshine through broken cloud cover as well. After a mid-70s start, temperatures will head to about 90° in the afternoon. Heat indices will not be quite the factor that they have been thus far in July, either: it’ll feel around 95° or so. Certainly not cool by any objective measure, but it’s not 105°, either.

Drier air pushes into the area on Sunday, and despite highs in the low 90s once again, it’s just going to feel a lot better as dewpoints mix out to the mid-60s in the afternoon. (We’ve been dealing with mid-to-upper 70s dewpoints for the better part of several weeks now, so this will be nice!) The drier air will help promote generally sunny skies with little to no chance of any rain in the afternoon. It’ll be one of the better outdoors days in recent memory, and dewpoints in the mid-60s essentially remove the heat index from the equation.

Enjoy this, because as we depart July and head into August next week, we’re back into a pretty standard summertime pattern with warm temperatures, mid-70s dewpoints, and afternoon storms.

Another round of heavy rain appears to be in the cards for Friday as a front continues to move southward into the very muggy and moist airmass that continues to linger over our neck of the woods. Temperatures start in the mid-70s once again, only warming to the upper 80s thanks to cloud cover and storms which should get going by mid-morning as the seabreeze develops. As of this writing, there is no new Flood Watch, but one could be issued by the time some of you read this in the morning. It won’t rain all day in any one location — this rarely happens in the summer — but where it rains, a lot could fall atop increasingly saturated ground. Stay tuned for possible Flood Advisories during the day Friday.

One more round of storms appears likely on Saturday as the front moves by, with more heavy rain potentially in the cards. Once again, temperatures will be suppressed a bit by the clouds and rain, with highs peaking in the upper 80s. Sunday is emerging as the pick day of the weekend, as the front will be south of here with a little bit of drier air building in featuring mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints, which is quite a contrast from the mid-70s dewpoints that typically characterize summer around here. Cloud cover should be minimal, though a stray afternoon storm can’t be totally ruled out. With the sun back out, expect highs to peak in the low 90s, but the drier air means lows will get to fall a bit, with low 70s expected away from the coast.

More active weather is expected Thursday as a stalled front combines with a favorable upper-air configuration and plenty of available moisture for numerous showers and thunderstorms. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, be ready for downpours to affect your day. We could see showers and storms fire overnight near the coast, in fact, and those could impact the morning commute, while guidance continues to paint solid afternoon thunderstorm chances as well.

This at least helps drives temperatures down a touch: while the low of 77° is still quite balmy, highs top out in the low 90s at best with heat indices running lower than they have on previous days. (A meteorological Pyrrhic victory, perhaps, but so it goes in late July.)

Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances will be in play each starting Wednesday as disturbances within southwest flow aloft add some lift to the generally favorable thermodynamics. Temperatures on Wednesday start in the upper 70s, warming to the low-to-mid-90s by afternoon. As far as storms, some coastal storms, perhaps with waterspouts, will again be possible with the morning land breeze. Then, once the seabreeze becomes established, we should see more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity inland.

Rain chances tick up even further Thursday and peak Friday as a front sags south nearby. This will help keep highs capped to around if not slightly below normal, especially Friday. Both days, expect decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain and a strong storm or two can’t be totally ruled out. Friday looks particularly active with the threat for isolated flooding possible. To this end, The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Fingers crossed for no commute problems, but it’s something to watch.

Heat and humidity will continue to rule the roost for Tuesday and for the next couple days as we stay within southerly flow at the surface and aloft, keeping the moisture pump moving right along. This will also lead to periods of storms. Guidance is hinting at another round of morning showers and storms near the coast as the land breeze develops before afternoon storms develop further inland. Coverage will generally be scattered in nature, and not all of us will see rain as a result. Highs top out in the low 90s after a start in the upper 70s; expect heat indices to get close to advisory criteria in the afternoon, perhaps approaching 107°.

I’m back…just in time for more rain. Showers and thunderstorms figure prominently in the forecast this week, especially in the afternoons and evenings, as the pattern generally keeps a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. This keeps us within southwest flow aloft, which keeps disturbances rippling through the area at times and the flow of moisture open from the Gulf. This, in turn, translates to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening as daytime heating kicks in and the sea breeze makes its inland trek.

After reaching 99° at the airport on Sunday — the warmest it’s been since May 29, 2019, when it was 101° in the midst of the Memorial Day heat wave — air temperatures make another run for the upper 90s on Monday after another steamy start in the upper 70s to low 80s as a deep-layer ridge stays in place. Given the moisture in place, heat indices should once again reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (108°) in many spots, especially in the Highway 17 corridor. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the seabreeze, but with the ridge in place, coverage will be scattered at best. Much like Sunday, we can’t rule out a stronger storm where one does fire if it can realize the considerable instability that will be available to it. Additionally, storm motions should again be fairly slow, and with a juicy atmosphere, some localized flooding will be possible if a storm does fire and hang out for a bit.

We’ve got a couple fairly active weather days ahead as low pressure nudges a front back inland across the area starting Friday. Then, heat really starts to build in on Sunday, with a stretch of heat indices well into Advisory territory expected to last several days.

Guidance suggests we could get off to an early start to spotty showers and thunderstorms on Friday before coverage becomes more widespread as the seabreeze kicks in later in the day. Temperatures start in the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest near the coast, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon in-between storms. Factor in dewpoints in the mid-70s and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Many of us should see some decent rain; an inch of rain looks to be a good bet in many spots, with some spots receiving upwards of 2″ (and maybe even a little more where locally heavy rainfall occurs). Severe weather is not expected, but minor flooding could occur where storms train. As the sun heads down, expect coverage to decrease.

Storms will continue into Saturday as energy aloft and low pressure at the surface affect the area for one more day. They’ll be a little more scattered in nature, though many of us could see some measurable rainfall once again. After another upper 70s to low 80s start, temperatures head back into the mid-90s in the afternoon with some spots flirting with Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices 108°+) in between storms.

Sunday will turn even hotter, with temperatures heading into the upper 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should venture into Heat Advisory territory, with fewer storms to cool some of us off as the pattern shifts back to a more traditional summertime setup with the Bermuda high to our east and the seabreeze pushing inland to kick off showers and storms. You’ll want to make sure you’re taking heat precautions if you find yourself out and about during the height of the afternoon. The hot temperatures look to stick around into at least the first part of next week, too, with heat indices perhaps approaching 110° at times with scattered afternoon storms to cool a few of us off.

A stalling front will briefly usher in slightly drier air on Thursday, helping to keep heat indices below heat advisory levels, but it’ll still be plenty warm with air temperatures peaking in the mid-90s and heat indices in the mid-100s expected. We should still see a few showers and thunderstorms pop in the afternoon, but like Wednesday, coverage should be reasonably limited.

Another hot and potentially stormy day is on tap for Wednesday. We’ll start the day in steamy fashion once more, with upper 70s to start the day away from the even warmer coastline. We’ll warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon, and this combined with mid-to-upper-70s dewpoints will yield heat indices in Heat Advisory territory once again. We should see showers and thunderstorms initiate once again in the afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze, though it’s worth noting that this evening’s convection-allowing models are showing a bit of a quieter day. We’ll see, though, as it’s often the small-scale influences that can help to drive development this time of year.

Thursday should be a little more active as a front stalls out to our west and a mid-level disturbance approaches from the east. Before storms fire, though, it’s another day in Mother Nature’s sauna with air temperatures in the low to mid-90s feeling like the mid-100s, perhaps flirting with Heat Advisory levels once again. Storms should be generally scattered to widespread in the afternoon and evening with heavy rain once again a possibility.

The aforementioned disturbance interacts with the stalled front to keep showers and storms in the area for a good bit of Friday, with coverage peaking in the climatologically favored afternoon and evening. This will keep temperatures from getting too far out of hand, with highs potentially falling short of 90° for the first time in over a week, though it’ll still be plenty warm. Heavy rain and maybe a strong storm or two remain the main concerns as we sit in a rather moisture-rich environment ahead of the stalled front to the west.