Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. Somehow, it caught on, and he kept doing it.

More clouds and a little cooler for Tuesday

/ April 19, 2021 at 6:55 PM

We’ll see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, allowing for a little more moisture return off the Atlantic. Temperatures will also run a few degrees cooler than we saw today, but we still should remain relatively comfortable.

It looks as if we get much, if not all, of Tuesday in rain-free. A couple of the models continue to come in with some shower activity Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, but it’s unclear if this is overdone. Any rain that falls would be relatively light, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Otherwise, our next substantial rain chance arrives this weekend, most likely Saturday night. More on that as we get through the week.

The week ahead: Dry spell largely continues

/ April 18, 2021 at 9:58 PM

Our long-standing dry spell will continue for much of this week, save for a small chance of showers on Tuesday as a little upper-level energy ripples through.

Mostly sunny skies will prevail on Monday as temperatures reach right around 80° — still a few degrees above normal at this point in the year. We’ll run a touch cooler on Tuesday with a few more clouds in place and perhaps even a shower or two, but those won’t be enough to break us from our abnormally dry April. Mostly sunny skies return on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front which will swing through overnight. By Thursday, cool high pressure will build in with temperatures near 8-10° below normal across the area under clear skies. High pressure gets off the coast on Friday and temperatures recover to the mid-70s with gradually increasing cloud cover in the evening ahead of a storm system.

If we are going to thwart the driest start to April since 1976, it’s likely going to happen Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning as low pressure moves through the area. At this range, of course, there are certainly model differences, and we will need to see how the details ultimately unfold, but this is the best shot at rain we’ve had probably all month! We’ll watch it closely. For now, though, keep watering your plants and washing your cars as we get through another dry work week.

Nice day coming up today

/ at 8:17 AM

After yesterday turned out to be quite a stunner, we have more good weather in store for today. Temperatures will head into the upper 70s with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Cloud cover will come and go as debris clouds from showers and storms to our south encroach into the area at times, but we look to remain rain-free.

Our dry stretch of weather likely continues into Tuesday at a minimum. Our best chance of rain this month — and it has been a dry month, with only a trace of rain at the airport so far — may not arrive until later Saturday. More on this later today.

Clouds persist, but looking a little less rainy this weekend

/ April 16, 2021 at 10:13 PM

As I mentioned last night, the weekend’s forecast remained a bit fluid and there could still be changes. As time has gone on, we’ve seen a more southward trend to this weekend’s rainfall chances as drier air looks to hold on a little more tightly across the area. Thus, shower chances remain generally low as the target timing for showers generally lies between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Looking at the data coming in right now, it certainly looks like Sunday morning may be the better opportunity for some showers to come through, but rainfall amounts look light.

Temperatures will continue to run a little cooler than normal across the area with more cloud cover than sun, but mid-70s won’t feel too bad, either. All in all, it’s not the best weekend of weather we’ve ever had, but it could be a lot worse, too.

Turning cooler this weekend with some showers possible Saturday

/ April 15, 2021 at 9:18 PM

A cold front will be moving through tonight, bringing some cooler air to the area as the front settles south and then stalls out. Cooler, drier air should win out on Friday, keeping us rain-free but only in the low 70s. Waves of low pressure along the front reintroduce rain chances for Saturday, with periods of showers expected through the evening. Depending on how Saturday plays out, we should see a rain-free Sunday with temperatures warming back up a little closer to normal.

Exact timing of any rain on Saturday is going to be difficult to pin down even tomorrow. A lot depends on how showers and thunderstorms transpire along the Gulf Coast during the day Friday into early Saturday. A couple of the variables forecasters will be taking into consideration includes whether moisture transport this far up is disrupted due to thunderstorm activity further south of us as well as how far north the frontal boundary can meander. It’s a tricky one — stay tuned. Indoor backup plans are a good idea for Saturday — we’ll just need radar and sharp attention to observations to determine when you’ll need to enact them.

Showers and a little cooler for Thursday

/ April 14, 2021 at 8:38 PM

A cold front will sink into the area during the day on Thursday, cooling us down and kicking off scattered showers across the area from about mid-morning into the evening. It won’t rain all day or all the time, but be ready to don the rain gear as the day goes on. One thing you’ll notice is that we will run a few degrees cooler in the afternoon — this cooldown will persist into next week, but won’t be too heinous.

Rain chances will take a break on Friday before returning to the area on Saturday, which is increasingly looking somewhat wet. Shower chances will persist into the weekend and perhaps into the first part of next week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal throughout.

Turning cooler as we close out the work week

/ April 13, 2021 at 9:23 PM

Wednesday promises one more day of above-normal temperatures before a cold front adjusts temperatures downward for the remainder of the week. We should see plenty of sunshine during the day, though clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon with even a stray shower possible in the evening. WIth gusty winds and low humidity, fire danger could be elevated tomorrow, so please don’t burn if you can help it.

Better rain chances arrive overnight into Thursday as the aforementioned cold front moves through the area. The most striking change will be to high temperatures; after several days in the 80s, we’ll top out in the mid-70s on Thursday and will run even a tad cooler on Friday under mostly cloudy skies.

Clouds will hang around on Friday into the weekend as the front stalls out to the south, with some differing solutions on whether and how much rain could re-enter the picture over the weekend as that front hangs out. Stay tuned to forecast updates as far as how the weekend ultimately plays out.

Another nice day in store for Tuesday

/ April 12, 2021 at 8:25 PM

After a dry cold front swings through tonight, we’ll start Tuesday comfortably cool with lows in the mid-50s. By the afternoon, we’ll be back in the low 80s with low humidity. All in all, another nice Tuesday that you probably wish was a Saturday.

As we get into Wednesday, a cold front will make its approach to the area. We could see a few showers in the evening, but rain chances are generally low (20-30%). Thursday looks mostly dry and about 5-6° cooler with temperatures in the mid-70s. We stay cool and partly cloudy on Friday and into the weekend, with some slight rain chances from Saturday to Monday.

The week ahead: Getting off to a warm start, but a little cooldown might be in the cards

/ April 11, 2021 at 11:20 PM

We’ll start out another work week with pretty nice weather in the wake of a cool front (can’t really call it cold with temperatures rebounding into the 80s, but the airmass will at least be drier!) before seeing another front by mid-week potentially bringing some unsettled weather.

Temperatures will start out this week in the 80s on the afternoons and mid-50s to around 60° in the mornings as high pressure moves through the area both at the surface and aloft. After a couple days of tranquil weather, cloud cover will thicken up on Wednesday as a cold front gets closer to the area. A few showers aren’t totally out of the question in the afternoon.

Forecast confidence gets a little iffy as we get into Thursday, with some timing differences in the models — the ECMWF is faster in getting the cold front through, while the GFS is about 12-18 hours slower — and thus invites some questions in when rain will move through the area. Indeed, NWS notes that forecast confidence is pretty low headed into the weekend as model differences persist. So, stay tuned as the details get sorted out, and don’t cancel any plans just yet.

A couple strong storms possible this evening

/ April 10, 2021 at 9:44 AM

We’re starting out partly cloudy this morning with temperatures approaching, if not surpassing, 70° at most spots as of 10am. A fair bit of today should remain dry, but we will be watching to our west as a cluster of thunderstorms approaches the area. It will be weakening by the time it gets here, but a strong storm or two can’t be ruled out this evening. Stay weather-aware and remember, all thunderstorms, regardless of whether they are classified as severe or not, are dangerous. When thunder roars, go indoors!