Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. Somehow, it caught on, and he kept doing it.

Frosty start Thursday; warming begins Friday

/ December 6, 2023 at 7:14 PM

Thursday will represent the bottom-most point of this week’s temperatures rollercoaster, with lows bottoming out in the mid-30s across much of the metro with freezing temperatures further inland. Frost is a distinct possibility, and you’ll want to have pets and plants inside overnight Wednesday. Cool high pressure moves across the area during the day Thursday, limiting highs to the upper 50s to around 60° despite predominantly sunny skies.

Read more »

Rest of the work week: Chilly couple days, then turning warmer Friday

/ December 5, 2023 at 8:09 PM

Another cool couple days lie ahead as a reinforcing front comes through early Wednesday morning. This will be a pretty solid shot of cool and dry air as high pressure builds in from the west. We’ll start Wednesday in the mid-40s, but the cooler air rushing in will limit the high to around 60° in the afternoon despite primarily sunny skies. It’ll be a bit breezy, with gusty winds out of the northwest at times, so some element of wind-breaking may be ideal.

Thursday will be the coolest day of the week. We’ll start the day in the mid-30s, with inland locations possibly approaching freezing. A light wind will make it feel a little cooler, with wind chills in the low 30s across the metro. Skies will once again be predominantly cloud-free, but the cold high pressure settling in will hold highs to the upper 50s to around 60°.

High pressure slips offshore Friday, and this allows some warmer air to move back in. We start Friday in the upper 30s to around 40°, but temperatures will warm back toward the mid-60s in the afternoon. Clouds will also be increasing as a coastal trough begins to take shape nearby, but rain is not expected.

Read more »

Tuesday: Turning cooler

/ December 4, 2023 at 7:54 PM

A reinforcing shot of cool air arrives overnight, and by Tuesday morning, we’ll wake up to temperatures about 10-15° cooler than we woke up to on Monday. Expect to start the day in the mid-40s before warming to the mid-60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. These temperatures are right around normal for December 5.

Read more »

The week ahead: Mostly quiet with a mid-week cooldown

/ December 3, 2023 at 9:30 PM

After a weekend in which clouds were prevalent but rain perhaps not so much, we get into a mostly quiet week ahead despite a few frontal passages that will gradually cool us off as we move through the week.

Read more »

Sunday’s forecast: Still unseasonably warm with scattered showers, maybe some thunder

/ December 2, 2023 at 6:22 PM

A cold front approaching the area should kick off some scattered showers at times throughout the day, with the best chances for rain generally occurring around midday to early afternoon. It’ll be one more unseasonably warm and muggy day across the area despite full overcast: lows will bottom out in the mid-60s — right in the neighborhood of the typical high for early December — with highs topping out in the mid-70s in the afternoon. It may be warm enough for some instability to develop, which could lead to a thunderstorm or two even as the front gets closer during the evening. No severe weather is expected, though. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts won’t be much to write home about — a few hundredths of an inch for most, with perhaps some locally heavier accumulation if a storm can fire. Shower chances taper after sunset, with the front to follow overnight.

Weekend forecast: Showery and warm, especially Saturday

/ December 1, 2023 at 7:47 PM

The weekend will be unseasonably warm with off and on showers, particularly starting Saturday afternoon and lasting into Sunday. The first thing of note will be the low temperatures in the low to mid-60s each morning. The normal high for early December runs around 67° or so…and we’ll be within striking distance of that in the mornings. Afternoon highs will be tempered by cloud cover and shower activity, but will still run well above normal in the mid-70s. As for the rain, it looks to be fairly on and off, with models hinting that a thunderstorm complex moving across the Gulf Coast into Florida may rob some of the moisture transport into the area. This could act to reduce the amount of rain we ultimately receive and may make the weekend look like less of a washout than first thought. We’ll keep an eye on this, but keep rain gear handy anyway and be ready for travel issues, because when it sprinkles, traffic snarls.

Friday & the weekend: Warmth and showers return

/ November 30, 2023 at 5:45 PM

Our recent chilly spell will come to an end on Friday as warmer and more humid air moves back in just in time for the start of meteorological winter (December-February). We start Friday in the upper 40s — well above where we have started the past few mornings — and warm to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Unfortunately, showers will also be returning to the forecast, with isolated to scattered showers developing in the afternoon and increasing in coverage overnight heading into Saturday.

Saturday should feature the greatest shower coverage, with on and off rainfall expected. It’ll still be warm, though — lows start in the low 60s, roughly where our high was on Wednesday — with temperatures heading to the low-to-mid-70s despite the rain in the area. Showers will keep on going into Sunday, though coverage may become a little more sparse as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. That being said, most of the models still have showers going well into Sunday night, so keep the rain gear handy. We’ll run about as warm, if not slightly warmer, than Saturday, with highs running solidly in the mid-70s.

Read more »

Thursday: One more round of morning frost and freeze

/ November 29, 2023 at 7:33 PM

Keep those plants covered or indoors: Frost and freeze conditions will return Wednesday night into Thursday morning as cool high pressure remains in place for one more day. Lows will bottom out in the low to mid-30s in much of the metro, with the warmer temperatures near the water. We could even see some 20s further inland and in more rural locations as well. Make sure your pets have a safe place to be tonight!

Temperatures on Thursday will warm to the low-to-mid-60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, perhaps running a few degrees warmer than Wednesday’s highs, but still on the cool side of normal for late November.

Read more »

Rest of the work week: Freeze warning Wednesday morning, frost possible Thursday…and 70s on Friday

/ November 28, 2023 at 7:41 PM

A Freeze Warning is in effect for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Expect temperatures to fall into the 20s inland of 17-A, with temperatures around 30° in much of the rest of the metro area. Places closer to the water such as downtown and the islands should stay just above freezing, though frost will be a concern there as well. Bring in your sensitive plants and make sure your pets have a warm place to be tonight.

Read more »

Tuesday: Chilly day with decreasing cloud cover; Freeze Watch for Wednesday morning

/ November 27, 2023 at 6:13 PM

Tuesday will begin a string of a few chilly mornings across the metro area. Temperatures will start in the mid-30s; breezy northwest winds will make it feel closer to freezing, so bundle up accordingly. (There should be too much wind and too little moisture for frost formation, BTW.) Cloud cover will hang around for the morning before scouring out in the afternoon. Even so, highs will struggle to the mid-to-upper 50s as northerly winds continue to blow cold air into the region.

There will be a chance for a little salt water to creep up out of some drains around Lockwood as well as out of Gadsden Creek with Tuesday morning’s high tide, though it should peak just shy of coastal flood criteria. Still, you don’t want to drive through salt water if you can help it. High tide on Tuesday morning is expected to peak around 8:17am.

Read more »