Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. Somehow, it caught on, and he kept doing it.

Tuesday: Oh, there’s June

/ June 5, 2023 at 9:15 PM

June makes a triumphant return on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore and winds go southwesterly, transporting more warm and humid air into the area. Temperatures should reach 90° after a mid-60s start under partly cloudy skies. We should see a few isolated storms pop up in the afternoon as the seabreeze makes its inland trek. A strong pulse storm with gusty winds and maybe even a little hail can’t be totally ruled out given decent instability; this will be most likely near outflow boundary collisions.

There will be a risk of some minor coastal flooding around the 10:58 PM high tide, but the westerly component to the wind will make this a much more limited threat compared to the past few days. Still, watch for some salt water around the Citadel and on Lockwood late Tuesday evening.

The week ahead: Feeling a little more like June

/ June 4, 2023 at 10:23 PM

After a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures (not that a lot of us are complaining, mind you), temperatures will begin to feel a little more like June at times this week as the series of cool high pressure wedges takes a little breather. The warming trend starts Monday, as highs top out in the mid-80s — still a little below normal, but much closer than we saw on Sunday with a high of only 75°. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, another nice change from Sunday’s generally overcast disposition.

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Sunday’s forecast: A little cooler with major coastal flooding possible in the evening

/ June 3, 2023 at 5:17 PM

A cold front will move through the area early Sunday, which will cap highs in the low 80s — well below normal for early June in the Lowcountry. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure wedges in from the northeast, but rain is not expected with the drier airmass filtering in. It’ll be a little breezy — gusts 20-30 MPH will be possible out of the northeast, especially at the beaches and on elevated surfaces such as the bridges.

The main weather concern for Sunday revolves around coastal flooding. A water level over 8′ is expected once again with Sunday evening’s high tide, which peaks around 9:10 PM. This will produce major coastal flooding once again, closing numerous roads in downtown Charleston and potentially causing disruptions on barrier islands as well. This degree of flooding is extraordinarily rare for June, with only three major flooding events on record — once in 1982 and twice in 2009. Be ready to use alternate routes if you are out and about Sunday evening.

Weekend forecast: Largely quiet, but watch for coastal flooding in the evenings

/ June 2, 2023 at 10:30 PM

This weekend’s forecast is looking pretty good by 2023 standards, and will certainly be a far cry from what last weekend looked like. Saturday will be the warmer of the two days with highs topping out in the mid-80s in the afternoon. A few showers will be possible along the seabreeze, but those should be few and far between. A cold front moves by overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, which will usher in some cooler and drier air that’ll keep highs capped around 80° in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Watch for some breezy conditions in the wake of the front on Sunday, with gusts near 30 MPH possible particularly on elevated surfaces and at the beaches.

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Friday & the weekend: Mostly quiet with temperatures a little below normal

/ June 1, 2023 at 11:01 PM

This weekend’s weather looks closer to what we wish we had last weekend. Expect highs to run generally in the mid-80s on Friday and Saturday. A cold front pushes through later Saturday, and this will drive highs a little cooler on Sunday as a result — generally topping out in the low 80s. We’ll start each day squarely in the mid-60s. Overall, these temperatures are below normal for the start of June.

This might be one of the quieter weekends we’ve had rain-wise this far this year. A stray shower or storm is possible Friday afternoon and evening, with lower chances Saturday and Sunday. We’ll see how this evolves, but this might be as close as we’ve gotten to a rain-free forecast for a weekend since early February! Stay tuned.

If you’re looking for a more authentic June feel, highs in the upper 80s look to return to the weather picture — at least briefly — by the middle of next week.

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Thursday: Mix of sun and clouds, below-normal temperatures to start climatological summer

/ May 31, 2023 at 11:12 PM

Thursday’s forecast is quiet and a little cool for this point in the year as we kick off climatological summer on June 1. Temperatures will generally run a couple degrees below normal on Thursday as cloud cover and a northeast breeze helps to keep things a little on the “cool” side. (Quotes around “cool” because it’ll still be warm and a little muggy, too.) As is customary for June, a shower can’t be totally discounted within this regime, but the vast majority of us get the day in rain-free.

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Rest of the work week: A slightly cooler than normal start to June

/ May 30, 2023 at 9:41 PM

The forecast for the rest of the work week is pretty straightforward: a mix of sun and clouds each day, with temperatures starting the day around normal before topping out a few degrees below normal each afternoon. Highs will generally run in the low 80s after starting each day in the mid-60s, somewhat unusually “cool” for the end of May and beginning of June. Precipitation chances will be minimal Wednesday and Thursday, with a slight chance of an evening thunderstorm on Friday.

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Tuesday: Temperatures near normal, stray PM thunderstorm possible

/ May 29, 2023 at 7:58 PM

After what’s turned out to be a really beautiful Memorial Day, we head back to work and school on Tuesday with similar, if not slightly warmer, weather expected. We’ll start the day a few degrees warmer — generally around the mid-60s — and highs should warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon. There’s a risk for a stray shower or thunderstorm in the later afternoon and early evening hours as the seabreeze gets rolling, but otherwise, the vast majority of us get Tuesday in rain-free as well.

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Memorial Day forecast: The sun returns, but a storm is possible in the afternoon

/ May 28, 2023 at 9:57 PM

The sun will make a return to our skies for Memorial Day as surface low pressure continues to move away from the area and westerly winds dry things out a bit. We start the day much cooler than normal, with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s. (The record low of 53° set in 1961 remains safe.) Sunshine and the aforementioned westerly winds should help highs top out in the low 80s — a couple ticks below normal as well, but certainly much more seasonable than the 60s and 70s of recent days. The only fly in the ointment may be a stray thunderstorm or two in the afternoon as the seabreeze moves inland. If the beach is in your Memorial Day plans, keep an eye out later in the afternoon as storm motions will be toward the coast. Otherwise, no concerns.

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Sunday’s forecast: Improvement begins

/ May 27, 2023 at 11:14 PM

We are through the worst of our experience with the coastal storm that has been bothering us for the better part of two days, and improvement will start to show itself on Sunday. We should see showers mostly shut down around daybreak or so, but I’m not sure a stray or two can be totally discounted throughout the day. We should start to see some breaks in the clouds, and by the evening, I suspect we’ll have at least some sunshine to close out the day. Temperatures will remain well below normal for this point in the year, topping out in the low 70s after starting the day around 60°.

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