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Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. Somehow, it caught on, and he kept doing it.

Isolated showers and storms possible Tuesday afternoon; big cooldown Wednesday

/ May 10, 2021 at 8:26 PM

We have one more day in the 80s on Tuesday before a backdoor front sinks south of the area Tuesday evening, bringing quite a cooldown to the area Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the front sags southward across the area, particularly in the afternoon.

Better rain chances arrive overnight into Wednesday, as moisture overruns a weak wedge of high pressure, setting up widespread precipitation for Wednesday and potentially into Thursday. An excessive rainfall event is not expected — indeed, this rain will be quite welcome as we continue to experience abnormally dry conditions across the Lowcountry. The persistent rain falling into the wedge will keep temperatures pinned down in the upper 60s. Record low maximum temperatures of 69 on Wednesday (set in 1963) and 68 on Thursday (set in 1996) are certainly in jeopardy. (At least it’s May and not January, where the wedge is often much chillier and the rain much more unpleasant!)

Temperatures rebound beginning Friday, and we continue to look really good for an extremely pleasant weekend of weather. (It’s never too early to think about the weekend, after all.)

The week ahead: Unsettled, turning chilly, but recovering for the weekend

/ May 9, 2021 at 8:53 PM

After an excellent weekend of weather, we’re back into a bit of an unsettled pattern for the work week. Monday should be mostly dry to start, but showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon as mid-level energy works its way through the area. Highs will top out in the mid-80s with humidity making it feel a little warmer.

We’ll begin to see a frontal boundary sink into the area on Tuesday, bringing another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. As the front sinks southward, a wedge of high pressure will begin to build in from the north and northeast, spelling a chilly (by mid-May standards) couple days for Wednesday and Thursday with highs only topping out in the mid-to-upper 60s. Rain looks likely as moisture overruns the wedge, and we sure could still use it as abnormally dry conditions persist across the Lowcountry.

By Friday, we begin to see drier high pressure reassert itself. Rain chances will remain with us especially in the morning before clearing the way for another gorgeous weekend of weather. (I like it when the pattern works out like this!)

Friday and the weekend: No complaints (weather-wise, anyway)

/ May 6, 2021 at 9:37 PM

No complaints about this weekend’s weather: Solid late-spring fare for the Lowcountry, with low humidity, a chill in the air to start each morning, and comfortably warm temperatures each afternoon under plenty of sunshine with just some fair weather cumulus at times providing a little natural shade. (Mom will love it.)

If I had to pick a day out of the three for the best weather, I’d say Saturday is probably it for its wide spectrum of temperatures, low humidity, and relatively calm winds. Friday and Sunday look to be a bit on the breezy side with high pressure building on Friday and beginning to depart on Sunday.

We’ll need to monitor weather conditions for enhanced fire danger over the next few days as we still remain abnormally dry. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Friday due to very low humidity and winds gusting up to 30 MPH at times, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see fire danger remain elevated into Sunday before our next rain chances arrive Monday. Please don’t burn outdoors as flames could quickly get out of hand. Otherwise, though, enjoy a nice weekend!

Less humid today, setting up for a nice weekend

/ at 8:31 AM

A cold front came through early this morning and you can really feel the difference out there! The air is much drier this morning in comparison to yesterday, with dewpoints down into the upper 50s and low 60s as opposed to the mid-to-upper 60s as they were 24 hours ago. Partly cloudy skies will continue today as low pressure organizes off the coast later today, with a very tiny chance of a shower this evening. We’ll see a second round of dry air punch in overnight, making for excellent weather especially Friday into Saturday.

One more day of mugginess before weather improves markedly to close the work week

/ May 4, 2021 at 10:22 PM

We’ve got one more day of thunderstorm chances this week before a cold front sweeps them out of here by Thursday, setting us up for a fine end to the work week and a nice weekend.

First, though, we need to handle Wednesday. Wednesday is going to be a tricky day in the forecast; scattered showers and thunderstorms certainly seem possible, but the overall coverage of storms is less certain. It appears that thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast will rob our area of moisture, which should keep coverage and intensity a tick lower than we’ve seen over the past couple days. Still, a strong to severe storm or two cannot be totally ruled out, either.

What is certain about Wednesday is that it’ll be another warm and muggy day. Temperatures will head into the mid-80s once again, with heat indices running around 90°.

The cold front swings through overnight Wednesday/early Thursday morning, and the airmass begins to change in response. We’ll see partly cloudy skies on Thursday with highs topping out in the low 80s with a little lower humidity. This airmass really begins to take hold later Thursday into Friday, when temperatures will start in the upper 50s and warm to comfortable temperatures in the upper 70s with lower humidity. This nice weather hangs around into the weekend, particularly on Saturday. Enjoy it — we don’t have too many more of these “cool” snaps left until later this year!

Warmest day of 2021 so far expected today, with thunderstorm chances this evening

/ at 6:57 AM

After the high topped out at 88° yesterday, we look to take at least one step closer to 90° today with another very summer-like day ahead. Humid air will allow heat indices to head up into the mid-90s for the first time this year. We’ll stay dry for much of the day absent any triggers for thunderstorm development, with our best chance of showers and thunderstorms coming later this evening (much like last night). Once again, we’ll be looking to our west throughout the day to nail down timing of any showers and thunderstorms that impact the area. Much like last night, there will be a damaging wind risk as well with the strongest thunderstorms, so keep an ear out to forecast updates throughout the day.

The week ahead: Warmest weather so far this year to start the week

/ May 2, 2021 at 6:51 PM

Get ready for a very summer-like start to your week. High pressure slipping into the Atlantic with a little ridging aloft will keep us warm — dare I say it, hot — and humid for the first part of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through Thursday before a cold front swings through with drier air and more pleasant temperatures for the weekend.

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Nice weekend shaping up ahead of an unsettled-looking week

/ April 30, 2021 at 7:10 PM

We’ve got a good-looking weekend queued up to start May. A cold front came through earlier today, and drier air is moving into the area from the north. This will make for a comfortable start to Saturday, with lows bottoming out in the mid-50s. Temperatures will rise into the mid-to-upper 70s under a mostly sunny sky — a really great day to get outdoors. Sunday will turn a little warmer with highs topping out in the low 80s under partly cloudy skies, but should still be quite nice.

As we get into next week, the pattern turns a little more unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances each day through Thursday, though this should all settle out for another gorgeous weekend afterward. Enjoy!

Friday: Quite warm, but drying out behind a cold front

/ at 7:37 AM

This morning, we find a cold front moving into the Upstate of SC. Said front looks to cross the area this afternoon with mostly little fanfare; expect mostly clear skies by sundown. Despite the front, today will be the warmest day of the week as deep downslope flow in the wake of the front allows temperatures to warm into the upper 80s. Dewpoints will trend downward, though, and it will feel pretty good outside despite the higher heat to close April. The weekend looks pretty good, with an especially nice day coming up on Saturday — more later today!

Thursday: Turning warmer

/ April 28, 2021 at 10:14 PM

We’re going to feel a little more like late May than late April tomorrow as high pressure slides a little more offshore with strong ridging remaining aloft. Humidity creeps up a little bit, and with a little compressional warming beginning ahead of a cold front, temperatures will get into the mid-80s in the afternoon. We will remain rain-free for at least one more day given the ridging aloft; with only a slight chance of thunderstorms on Friday as the front swings through, it is conceivable we will stay rain-free through the weekend as high pressure builds back in behind it, cooling things off a little for Saturday.

Minor coastal flooding will remain an issue with the evening high tides through Friday. Winds will then shift offshore and lingering astronomical influences will wane, ending this cycle of coastal flooding.