Thursday is probably going to rank among the nastier, most raw days of this winter: Temperatures barely moving around within the mid-40s, persistent rain, and gusty northeast winds which will make it feel like the mid-30s. Speaking personally, it’s not my favorite by any stretch.

It’s worth noting that the 5:47 AM high tide may approach 7′ in the harbor as northeasterly winds push water levels higher. Some minor coastal flooding will be possible.

It’s going to feel a lot like it, but I’ve got to set expectations here: No, it is not going to snow. We are going to stay just warm enough at the surface and aloft for all precipitation to remain liquid, and the coldest air will lag the moisture by a few hours overnight. If you’re looking for snow, head northward: There are some small chances in the Pee Dee, but it looks like the bullseye is in eastern North Carolina.

This will be the last gray day for a few days; much more sunshine — and much colder weather — is on tap for Friday.

Get ready for a wet and possibly foggy (in spots) commute, as our best rain chances for Wednesday come in the morning to early afternoon hours as an upper-level disturbance ripples along a backdoor cold front that will be moving southward across South Carolina throughout the day.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, temperatures will generally stay steadily in the low 60s, perhaps warming slightly after daybreak. Once the front passes through, temperatures will fall into the 50s, with the potential for lingering showers into the evening hours.

This sets us up for a very chilly and rainy (emphasis on rainy!) Thursday. More to discuss on that in the morning.

After a seasonable, somewhat cloudy Presidents’ Day, we look toward an unsettled work week ahead, with shower chances each day and gradually cooling conditions. Tuesday will be the warmest of the two days as temperatures rise to the low 70s in the wake of a warm front. A cold front will then back-door into the area from the north on Wednesday, causing temperatures to plummet and winds to shift around to the northeast for Thursday. Finally, one more front swings through Thursday night into early Friday, scouring out the rain and leaving us quite chilly with highs perhaps not making it to 50°. (No, winter is not over yet.)

After a mostly sunny but chilly day on Saturday, rain chances return today as moisture and upper-level energy overruns the area. Our best rain chances begin this afternoon through early evening, but scattered showers are possible all day as a surface trough takes shape along the coast. Keep rain gear handy!

Expect temperatures to be on par with yesterday; we topped out at 58° at the airport on Saturday and NWS is forecasting 60° today. It’s conceivable that we may yet run cooler than 60° depending on the onset of precipitation, so be ready to be chilly if you’re outdoors.

We start this Valentine’s Day off with mostly cloudy skies and occasional patches of drizzle and light rain as a plume of moisture with origins in the Pacific pushes eastward over our area. Once said plume begins to clear, we will see clouds follow suit, giving way to a nice and somewhat cool afternoon. The big feature of today’s weather, which lasts through the weekend, is the return to cooler, more seasonable temperatures in the wake of a cold front which swung through yesterday. Expect highs today to top out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the area, a marked change from yesterday’s upper 70s inland to mid-70s near the coast.

Conditions in the Tri-County at noon remain fairly warm, but cloud cover has kept temperatures largely in check along and east of 17-A, with upper 60s to low 70s across Charleston proper. (Not record territory yet.) Further west into Summerville and Moncks Corner, temperatures have soared into the upper 70s where the marine layer, and thus cloud cover, have had less of an impact. It is here where there will be the greatest risk for a couple strong thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. As the marine layer holds closer to the coast, the air stabilizes quickly, which will lessen the severe threat. If the marine layer erodes a bit more before storms arrive, this could spread the wind gust threat a little further east. The Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise the Lowcountry in a marginal risk for damaging straight-line wind gusts, and that certainly seems well-placed.

Ahead of the line, winds have been gusting pretty regularly to 30 MPH at the airport. Breezy conditions will continue and perhaps intensify some as the sun breaks out a bit.

Storms are moving at a pretty good clip — roughly east at 35 MPH — and so timings have been adjusted accordingly. I’m thinking 1-2 PM for areas of Dorchester and Berkeley counties adjacent to I-95, 2-4 PM for Summerville, Moncks Corner, Goose Creek, and areas generally in the 17-A corridor, and then 3-5 PM for Charleston proper before the line gets off the coast.

After the line clears the coast, expect an hour or two of rainfall. Slick roads and rain may complicate the commute, so be ready to allow extra time to get home tonight.

Sea fog impacts will wane this morning, but some areas of dense fog will be possible through 10am. Attention then turns toward what looks to be a rather warm day across the Lowcountry with the record high of 78° set in 1976 in serious jeopardy. If the forecast verifies, this would be the fourth 80° day of the season and the third this year.

Later this afternoon into this evening, a line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the area from the west alongside a cold front, which will knock temperatures down for this weekend. A couple strong thunderstorms with the capability of producing wind damage are possible. Widespread severe weather isn’t expected, but be ready in case a warning is issued. These thunderstorms look to affect the area between 4-8 PM.

After setting a record high on Tuesday, we will once again have another warm — but perhaps not record warm — day on Wednesday. We’ll start the day out around the normal high temperature for this time of year (62°) with some fog possibly in the area. After any fog in the area dissipates, we’ll be left with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-70s, but will remain rain-free. The record high for February 12 is 79°, set in 2017.

Some winter we’re having this year. For the third time this season and the second time this year, it is conceivable that we’ll top out at 80° tomorrow, which would break the record of 79° set in 1939. (It’s worth noting that the low of 61° is close to the normal high for February 11.)

We’ll start the day with the potential for some patchy fog and may end it with a few showers in the area, but most of us should stay dry as the best ingredients for showers and thunderstorms will stay to our west. The further inland you go, the better your shot at a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be.

After a brief return to winter, more very spring-like (and unsettled) weather returns to the forecast for this week. Much of the work week will feature at least a chance of showers each day, with the potential for a few thunderstorms Tuesday as well as Thursday. Another front will clear the area Friday, cooling us off for a brief period before the potential for another disturbance on Sunday. Good news is that it does look like that we’ll squeeze in some decent weather for SEWE. Temperatures will remain well above-normal, with 70s in store starting Monday through Thursday.