Showers have ended and cloud cover will diminish overnight, yielding a sunny Tuesday — in stark contrast to the dreariness that was Monday. However, high pressure trying to build in from the west will help to keep the gradient pinched as low pressure remains offshore, keeping north to northeast winds elevated throughout the day. Temperatures will start in the upper 30s, but the wind chill will make it feel more like 30°, so dress appropriately in the morning. We’ll warm only to the mid-to-upper 50s despite the sunshine, too.

The other issue for Tuesday will be the risk for some minor to moderate coastal flooding very early Tuesday morning. High tide around 4:32am is forecast to reach between 7.5-7.7′. While we fell just short of coastal flood criteria Monday morning, it certainly seems more likely that we’ll achieve flood stage on Tuesday. So, if you have early travels that take you downtown, be ready to reroute around flooded roads.

The first full week of February gets off to a stormy start as strong low pressure affects the area, particularly in the morning. We’re looking for the potential for some coastal flooding early in the day, and this combined with heavy rainfall could cause flooding problems across downtown Charleston, especially around high tide a little after 3:30am. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 2-6am for the salt water flooding threat; if that heavy rain does coincide, additional flood advisories for land-based areas would be needed. Rain does slowly taper off as Monday goes along, but we stay on the chilly side as breezy northeasterly winds blow in. This keeps highs capped to the mid-50s after an upper 40s start.

Our run of quiet weather comes to a brief pause starting Sunday as a storm system approaches the area. We’ll see cloud cover head up throughout the day, and showers will be increasingly possible as we get into the later afternoon and evening hours. Expect temperatures to start in the upper 30s to around 40°, with highs topping out around 60°. Northeasterly winds around the storm system will be increasing as the day goes on, and it could be a bit gusty by afternoon, so keep that in mind as well as you head out and about.

This stretch of quiet weather culminates in a sunny and a bit cooler day on Saturday. A front will come through overnight Friday into early Saturday morning, kicking up the winds a little and swinging them around to the northeast. Temperatures Saturday start in the low 40s, but will only warm to about 60° despite nearly cloudless skies during the day.

Sunday will be a different story. We’ll stay on the cool side with strengthening northeasterly winds throughout the day — expect highs to top out in the upper 50s to around 60° in the afternoon — but cloud cover will be on the increase as a storm system approaches from the west. Showers will advance on the area throughout the day, and we should start to see some showers by early afternoon. Rain will pick up later in the day and especially after sunset. As low pressure to the west and high pressure to the northeast continue to butt up against each other, the pressure gradient will pinch and winds will subsequently increase. We should see gusts to 30 MPH by sunset, and this will continue overnight as rain falls. The rain could be heavy overnight; by the time moisture shunts offshore during the day Monday, some spots could receive an inch and a half of rain with even higher amounts. There will even be a risk for some tidal flooding early Monday morning as well, but it should peak well before commute time. Keep an eye on forecast updates as the details become further refined.

Friday and the weekend will be generally quiet, though we will be watching winds and clouds increase on Sunday ahead of a storm system that’ll make for a windy and soggy Monday. Friday starts around 40° and warms to the upper 60s under partly cloudy skies that will be turning clearer as the day goes on — a rather springlike day regardless of what the groundhog says. Saturday will run a little cooler as a dry front slides southward across the area, with highs topping out in the low 60s as winds turn more northeasterly. Still, skies will be pretty close to if not completely cloud-free, and it’ll be a comfortable day to get out and about.

We’ll start to see changes Sunday as low pressure moving eastward along the Gulf Coast starts to butt up against high pressure to our northeast. The gradient between these two features will tighten over the area, kicking northeasterly winds up throughout the day Sunday. The rain should hold off for much of the day, but we should start to see some showers affect the area late (probably after sunset). Highs on Sunday top out in the low 60s with the continued and strengthening onshore flow. This will lead into what could be a fairly windy and showery Monday, particularly in the morning as low pressure makes its closest approach. Forecast details are still coming together for Monday, so stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend.

The sun comes back out on Thursday with the upper low long gone, and this leads to a nice warmup for Thursday. After starting the day in the mid-to-upper 30s, we’ll warm to the low-to-mid-60s for the start of February. Overall, no major weather concerns to kick off the month, and that ain’t bad.

Generally quiet weather continues for the balance of the work week. The exception will be Wednesday morning, when a little bit of energy aloft traverses the area and squeezes out some shower activity. Rain gauges won’t catch much precipitation at all, and it should be out of here by afternoon. Clouds could hang around, though, and some cooler air blowing in behind the disturbance will keep highs pinned to the mid-50s Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure — and, as a result, sunshine — returns to close out the work week. Expect mostly sunny skies on Thursday. After a seasonably cool start in the upper 30s, highs will warm to the mid-60s in the afternoon. Friday is still looking good, too, with low 40s yielding to upper 60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, so if we get stuck in a temporal loop, at least the weather will be nice.

Peeking ahead at the weekend, we see a quiet and seasonably warm Saturday but an increasingly unsettled Sunday as another storm system approaches the area. This storm system peaks overnight Sunday into Monday with decent rainfall expected. Rain chances diminish heading into next Tuesday, with a little bit of a chill in the air as well.

Expect another seasonally-appropriate day on Tuesday, though we will start out a little cooler than we did on Monday. Lows should bottom out in the mid-30s, and with a little wind still blowing, it’ll feel a few degrees cooler. Temperatures should head to the low-to-mid-60s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift southerly and pick up a bit in the afternoon ahead of a weak low, nudging dewpoints up a few degrees but certainly nothing outrageous.

Temperatures will be much more seasonable this week as a trough re-establishes itself in the east over the next few days, though we will still run a couple degrees above late-January and early February normals (highs generally in the low 60s). Weather will be generally quiet this week as generally dry air and surface high pressure generally rules the roost. The main exception will be Wednesday as an upper low dips nearby, instigating surface low pressure across the Carolinas, but even then the risk for showers will be generally very limited given the dearth of moisture. Quiet weather resumes Thursday through Saturday before another storm system develops in the Gulf of Mexico and strafes the area to the south. Drier air will again limit our rainfall potential, but we will turn a little cooler heading into next week as another upper low lumbers through the area.

After setting a daily high temperature record and tying the monthly high temperature record for January today, we have one more warm day for Saturday before a front brings temperatures back down to earth on Sunday. We start Saturday in the low 60s once again before warming to the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon. Scattered showers should be a factor ahead of the aforementioned front, but coverage won’t really amount to much until we get into the overnight as the front moves by. Showers will taper off early Sunday morning, and as cooler and drier air moves in behind the cold front, cloud cover will break up. Temperatures will be held to the mid-to-upper 60s as gusty west winds — perhaps with gusts approaching 30 MPH in the early afternoon — blow into the area. More normal temperatures return for next week, with a stretch of quiet weather expected to close January and start February.