Expect generally quieter but warmer conditions for the second half of the work week as high pressure gives us a respite before another unsettled period commences Saturday.

Wednesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun that’ll help drive temperatures into the mid-80s in the afternoon after a start near 70°. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening as a weak front moves through the area, and a strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out in the stronger storms.

High pressure is the main weather driver on Thursday, yielding a fairly quiet and warm day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon with just some passing clouds from time to time. Friday should remain mostly quiet with temperatures once again starting in the mid-60s before yielding to mid-80s in the afternoon. High pressure will be departing ahead of our next disturbance, and there’s still some question as to how soon showers and thunderstorms arrive in the area as a result. So, for now, there’s a slight chance we could see some activity Friday night, but it’s more likely that unsettled weather holds off until Saturday.

Tuesday figures to be a fairly active weather day with a couple rounds of storms expected. The first one will be ongoing as we wake up and commute; periods of heavy rain will be possible within thunderstorms, so be ready for delays in the morning. One other twist will be in the form of a warm front that will lift north across the area as we get into mid-morning; this could enhance low-level shear enough where the environment might support a brief tornado (though this risk is fairly low all things considered). The first round of showers and thunderstorms should get offshore roughly around midday, and many of us will catch a break from the rain early Tuesday afternoon. Heading into mid-to-late afternoon, expect additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to fire across the area. There will be a damaging wind risk within the strongest storms, so you’ll want to keep an ear out for possible weather warnings. Storms will be possible well into the evening before chances head back down around midnight or so.

Temperatures Tuesday start on the warm and muggy side in the mid-to-upper 60s. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s given the expected showers, thunderstorms, and overall cloud cover.

I hope everyone got to enjoy this fine Mother’s Day weekend, because we are getting back to storms for a good chunk of the upcoming week. We start Monday on a dry note, but shower and storm chances will increase as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast states toward the East Coast. We start Monday in the low 60s, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon with clouds on the increase ahead of shower and thunderstorm chances later in the day.

The latest forecast update from the Space Weather Prediction Center calls for G4-G5 geomagnetic storming overnight, with the peak of the activity expected right around sunrise (alas) as another round of G5 conditions is expected.

As of 9PM, the geomagnetic storm index is, well…G-Zero. It is expected to ramp back up, but weaker than last night when the storm remained at G5 levels for much of the evening. This will mean that it’ll be a later night for aurora-watchers here in the Lowcountry, and that y’all will indeed have your best chance at seeing something if you are in a dark place and using a camera. We just cannot expect that we will see aurora to the degree we saw it last night, and it may not even be close. And by the time the expected G5 conditions kick in, we’ll be getting into dawn, and that will end the chance for us to see aurora here. Sunday evening’s forecast right now doesn’t look too favorable here with generally G3 conditions at best as the storm dies down, so if we’re going to see any additional aurora, it’s going to have to be tonight.

If you are going to stay out a while tonight, pack a hoodie — lows dip into the upper 50s under clear skies. Good luck, aurora-hunters!

Well, last night was something else — you just don’t see aurora this far south every day, and the degree to which we saw it was so incredibly rare. The fact that many of you were able to see it with the naked eye speaks well to the strength of the storm: a G5 event, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center, which hasn’t happened since October of 2003.

The geomagnetic storm continues over the weekend. However, it probably peaked last night. G3 conditions are forecast for tonight, which would preclude most of us from seeing aurora unless we were in a dark place with a good view of the northern horizon using a camera with a wide-open aperture. Clouds will not be an issue tonight as fair-weather cumulus will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. If anything, you might want a hoodie if you’re going to go looking! But once again, I want to set expectations very carefully: we just cannot expect a repeat of last night’s display tonight. G5 geomagnetic storms are incredibly rare, and that’s the strength we need for the kind of display we saw yesterday here in the Lowcountry. (It’s not too late to head to the NC mountains, though!)

After a stormy Thursday that, aside from a report of quarter-size hail in Goose Creek, was generally benign for the Charleston metro, a couple more rounds of unsettled weather arrive Friday before a beautiful weekend.

We get off to a warm start on Thursday — expect lows to only bottom out in the low to perhaps mid-70s with highs topping out in the low 90s and humidity making it feel closer to the upper 90s. The main weather story, though, will be the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms moving through Thursday afternoon and into the evening. These could pack strong and potentially damaging wind gusts along with large hail. Exact timing is still unclear, but there is a risk these could coincide with the commute, so we’ll want to watch them closely. Stay close to reliable weather sources throughout the day for updates.

We reached 90° on Tuesday, the third 90° high of the year and the first time since April 20, when we reached 91°. We turn even warmer for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridges over the area. Wednesday will feature highs in the low-to-mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. Heat indices won’t get too out of bounds, but it’ll still feel a touch warmer than the air temperature will indicate.

High pressure remains in control to start Thursday, sending us to the mid-90s in the afternoon with heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s possible. A storm system will approach the area, though, and this will help ignite showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Given the moist, unstable, and decently sheared environment, a few of those storms could turn strong or severe. We’ll keep an eye on how things evolve further to our west Wednesday as they’ll inform the situation locally on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Showers and thunderstorms feature prominently in the forecast on Friday as a cold front moves through. A couple stronger storms still can’t be totally discounted in this scenario, though the risk looks lower than Thursday at this point. Temperatures will be governed by clouds and rain, topping out in the mid-80s. Once the front gets through late Friday/early Saturday, cooler and drier air moves in for what should be a rather nice weekend!

We may contend with a storm or two in the morning, but the weather story for Tuesday will be the return of the 90s in the afternoon. It’ll be a warm start with lows around 70°, but as the ridge aloft builds in, highs top out in the low 90s. If there’s one bit of good news here, it’s that it’s not summer-humid just yet, and dewpoints should run in the mid-60s, keeping heat indices reasonably in check. Cloud cover will be diminishing throughout the day as well, so expect plenty of sunshine as we get into the afternoon and evening hours.

The upcoming week will be on the warm side as ridging aloft builds in, sending mid-week temperatures well into the 90s and perhaps into record territory.

First, though, we deal with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Temperatures on Monday start once again in the upper 60s to near 70°, warming to the mid-80s as one last upper disturbance makes its way through. We should see thunderstorms fire up around or a little after midday and generally remain scattered in nature. A few heavy downpours will be possible, and a strong storm can never be totally discounted near where boundaries collide — and on the flip side, some of y’all might not see any rain at all. (That time of year!)