Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.
More showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon and evening as a stalled front hangs around the area. First, though, we’ll start the day in fine June fashion with lows around 70° in the morning. Temperatures should head to about 90° in the afternoon before thunderstorms fire. Dewpoints in the mid-60s should yield heat indices around 92° — nothing totally out of hand for this point in the year, but certainly steamy.
Warm and unsettled weather will be the rule for much of the week ahead as a trough of low pressure aloft hangs around for much of the week, driving a front close to the area before it stalls out and meanders before washing out over the weekend.
I hope y’all enjoyed the relative dearth of humidity on Saturday — it was a rare June day in the Lowcountry where the heat index was cooler than the air temperature — because humidity will return to the area during the day Sunday as a warm front lifts north of the area. We start the day in the mid-60s before warming into the upper 80s; dewpoints heading back into the upper 60s will make it feel more like the low 90s at the height of the heat of the day. From there, we should start to see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop and move eastward across the area. Instability and shear aren’t super-great, so the risk for any severe storms looks limited — but remember, all thunderstorms are dangerous because of the lightning they produce. Regardless, it doesn’t look to rain all day at any one location — as always, just make sure you have an indoor backup plan for outdoor activities.
We’ve got a pretty decent weekend of weather ahead, though we may see a few storms Sunday afternoon and evening as a front moves back north through the area. Saturday looks like a great summer day, though — we start the day in the low 60s, which is a few degrees below normal for June 10. Highs then head up to around 90° in the afternoon, and with unseasonably low dewpoints, humidity won’t play quite the role we’re used to it playing in June. I suspect that you may want to get to the beaches a little early to avoid traffic.
Sunday starts a little warmer as temperatures start in the mid-60s, still a tad below normal for June 11. Clouds will be on the increase throughout the day, and we’ll be watching a warm front as it moves back north through the area for the potential to kick off some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 80s, and with dewpoints about 10° warmer, it’ll be a little more humid, too. Overall, though, still not too shabby.
Looking for the 90s? They’ll be back starting Monday, and look to last for much of next week — but let’s enjoy the weekend first.
Quieter weather continues as we head into Friday and Saturday, with the risk for thunderstorms returning Sunday afternoon and evening as another front gets close to the area.
Our string of stormy afternoons looks to continue on Thursday as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Showers could fire as early as mid-morning, but the better chance of thunderstorms arrives in the afternoon and evening hours as we get some daytime heating in place. Much like the past two days, a few storms could produce gusty winds and hail, so be on the lookout for quickly changing weather conditions and be ready to move indoors quickly if storms approach.
With the front in the area, highs will top out somewhat lower than Wednesday’s 92° — expect generally mid-80s across the region before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. We could run a little warmer — or cooler — depending on how fast the front gets south of here. (That could also modulate our thunderstorm chances a bit, too.)
Finally, there are no air quality concerns with the ongoing wildfire smoke that is being transported south into the eastern United States from Quebec, though we will continue to see a milky haze in the sky, which should persist into the weekend.
The summertime feel continues into Wednesday, as temperatures look to top out in the low 90s in the afternoon before thunderstorms develop once again in the afternoon thanks to a combination of the seabreeze and a backdoor front that slowly approaches the area throughout the day. A few stronger storms are possible with gusty winds and hail, so be on the lookout if you have evening plans to celebrate getting over the hump.
June makes a triumphant return on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore and winds go southwesterly, transporting more warm and humid air into the area. Temperatures should reach 90° after a mid-60s start under partly cloudy skies. We should see a few isolated storms pop up in the afternoon as the seabreeze makes its inland trek. A strong pulse storm with gusty winds and maybe even a little hail can’t be totally ruled out given decent instability; this will be most likely near outflow boundary collisions.
There will be a risk of some minor coastal flooding around the 10:58 PM high tide, but the westerly component to the wind will make this a much more limited threat compared to the past few days. Still, watch for some salt water around the Citadel and on Lockwood late Tuesday evening.
After a prolonged period of below-normal temperatures (not that a lot of us are complaining, mind you), temperatures will begin to feel a little more like June at times this week as the series of cool high pressure wedges takes a little breather. The warming trend starts Monday, as highs top out in the mid-80s — still a little below normal, but much closer than we saw on Sunday with a high of only 75°. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, another nice change from Sunday’s generally overcast disposition.
A cold front will move through the area early Sunday, which will cap highs in the low 80s — well below normal for early June in the Lowcountry. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure wedges in from the northeast, but rain is not expected with the drier airmass filtering in. It’ll be a little breezy — gusts 20-30 MPH will be possible out of the northeast, especially at the beaches and on elevated surfaces such as the bridges.
The main weather concern for Sunday revolves around coastal flooding. A water level over 8′ is expected once again with Sunday evening’s high tide, which peaks around 9:10 PM. This will produce major coastal flooding once again, closing numerous roads in downtown Charleston and potentially causing disruptions on barrier islands as well. This degree of flooding is extraordinarily rare for June, with only three major flooding events on record — once in 1982 and twice in 2009. Be ready to use alternate routes if you are out and about Sunday evening.