Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. In the ensuing decade-and-a-half, @chswx has provided live coverage of tropical cyclones, tornadoes, severe weather, and even a couple bouts of winter weather to the good people of Charleston, SC.
Warm weather continues for Friday and the weekend, feeling a lot more like September than late October. Temperatures will continue to run in the low 80s each afternoon after starts in the low 60s each day. Unsurprisingly, these temperatures run well above climatology. At this point in October, a normal day starts in the low 50s, and we will run well above that through the end of the month, it looks like. Our high temperatures will come in about 8-9° or so above normal each day; we should be in the mid-70s. While the record highs for Friday and Saturday seem out of reach (87° and 86°, respectively), Sunday’s forecast high of 83° comes within a couple degrees of the daily record high of 85° set in 1946.
Fall fans, do not fret, though: A strong cold front appears timed for Halloween. This front will knock temperatures back to near normal for Tuesday, followed by below-normal high temperatures as we start November (think mid-60s vs. mid-70s).
Rinse and repeat: More quiet and warm weather is on tap for Thursday (and beyond!) High pressure remains in control, and that’ll keep things rain-free and rather warm for late October. We start the day in the low 60s (for reference, the normal low for October 26 is 54°) and warm to around 80° in the afternoon. Much like Wednesday, we’ll see a few clouds amongst otherwise blue skies.
The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for some minor coastal flooding with the Thursday evening high tide. Water levels should peak between 7-7.2′ in the harbor, and this’ll cause some salt water to spill onto the typical trouble spots roughly an hour or two on either side of the 6:49 PM high tide. We’ll probably land a Coastal Flood Advisory during Thursday evening’s commute, so be ready to route around a little salt water especially around the Citadel and MUSC.
The rest of the work week will be seasonably warm as high pressure remains in firm control of our weather. We’ll start Wednesday noticeably warmer than Tuesday with lows in the upper 50s as opposed to the upper 40s. From there, temperatures will warm to near 80° under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. We start Thursday even warmer, with low 60s forecast — several degrees above normal for this point in the year. Temperatures top out around 80° with a mix of sun and clouds. As for Friday, copy and paste — pretty much the same story as Thursday. We keep warmth heading into the weekend and to start next week, though we should see a cooldown in time for Halloween.
High tides on Wednesday will get close to coastal flood criteria and could yet require a Coastal Flood Advisory or two if the departures tick up just a little more. We’ll flirt with minor coastal flood criteria at times of high tide into the weekend, so keep an ear out for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
We get off to a fairly chilly start on Tuesday as lows bottom out in the upper 40s thanks to clear skies and light winds. This will be the low-water mark (so to speak) for temperatures, though, as we head into the rest of the week. Highs on Tuesday top out in the mid-70s once again, perhaps a degree or two warmer than we saw on Monday. All in all, another nice October day.
The story of this week’s weather will be high pressure keeping a firm grasp on the area for the rest of the week (and maybe even the rest of October). This will lead to generally quiet weather, with a warming trend bringing us into the low 80s starting around midweek. Monday will be the coolest of the set in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage; we start the day around 50° and warm into the low 70s in the afternoon with just a few clouds. Tuesday starts a touch cooler, but the warming trend will begin with temperatures reaching a little warmer in the afternoon. A decent stretch of above-normal warmth takes hold from there, with variable cloud cover but little else to write home about as moisture is generally scant. All in all, it’s not a bad week to get the car washed (note to self) and enjoy some outdoor lunches.
The only concern may end up being coastal flooding at times of high tide possibly starting as early as Tuesday. Winds will be out of the northeast as high pressure settles in to our northwest, and this combined with the upcoming full moon will once again start to send water levels above coastal flood criteria as we head into the latter half of the week. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.
After an occasionally stormy Friday, we have a great looking weekend of weather ahead. Skies clear out overnight Friday in the wake of the front, and by Saturday morning, we’re waking up to brilliant sunshine and temperatures in the low 50s. It’ll be a predominantly sunny day with temperatures topping out in the low-to-mid-70s.
Sunday turns a little warmer, but it’ll remain rather comfortable. Lows in the upper 50s give way to highs in the mid-to-upper 70s in the afternoon with a few clouds at times and a gentle northwesterly breeze. A reinforcing front makes a dry passage late Sunday evening, and this will cool temperatures back down for Monday. Peeking ahead into the forecastable future, there’s very little sign of much in the way of rain as we get into the home stretch of October. This isn’t too abnormal as October is climatologically a fairly dry month here in the Lowcountry, but we are almost an inch off pace still for the month.
Showers and a few thunderstorms re-enter the weather picture for Friday as a cold front moves by, but it’ll be worth it as we have a gorgeous weekend ahead.
We start Friday in the mid-50s with dewpoints steadily rising throughout the day. Showers and thunderstorms will approach the area from the west as the day goes on, with storms possible perhaps as early as 1-2 PM, but most likely in the late afternoon to early evening hours. A storm or two could even be on the strong side, with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Rainfall between a quarter and half-inch is generally expected, with some spots under- and over-performing as is common with these kinds of convective setups. Due to the ongoing dry conditions, though, flooding is not expected to be an issue.
From there, the weekend looks great. Skies clear nicely for Saturday, and northwesterly flow will yield a rather beautiful day with lows in the mid-50s yielding to highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon with nary a cloud to be found. Sunday will be another really nice day with temperatures generally similar to Saturday’s, though we’ll see a bit more in the way of scattered clouds ahead of a dry frontal passage late. All in all, it looks to be a fantastic weekend to get out and do stuff.
Expect clouds to be on the increase on Thursday as a coastal trough develops nearby, spreading some cloud cover onshore. Somewhat more southerly trajectories will allow temperatures to run a little warmer (but still below normal). Expect to start the day in the low-to-mid-50s before temperatures head to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Despite increasing clouds, expect one more rain-free day ahead of a cold front arriving Friday.
Sun continues for a couple more days before unsettled weather arrives later Friday with a cold front. Wednesday could be the chilliest start since April 18 if the NWS forecast verifies, with low to mid-40s common away from the locally warmer coastline. Temperatures will warm into the low 70s under mostly sunny skies, a couple clicks warmer than was observed on Tuesday.
Thursday runs even a little warmer as winds go a little more east to southeast, allowing some more moisture to work into the area. Expect to start Thursday in the low 50s before warming to the mid-70s under generally partly cloudy skies.
Our next rain chance arrives Friday afternoon into the evening ahead of a cold front. This will be the warmest overall day of the set as lows generally start in the mid-to-upper 50s before reaching highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon before showers begin. Right now, it doesn’t look like we’ll get much in the way of rain; generally around a quarter-inch at most. Of course, that doesn’t preclude a few spots from seeing some slightly heavier or lighter amounts.
Once the front is through, we have an excellent, seasonable weekend of weather on tap with lows in the low 50s and highs in the low 70s each afternoon with plenty of sunshine.
Tuesday will be another seasonably cool day under mostly sunny skies as high pressure remains in control at the surface with troughing aloft. After an upper-level disturbance passes by overnight Monday, skies will clear, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s away from the coast for Tuesday morning. Temperatures then rise into the upper 60s, with the potential for a couple spots to hit 70°. Overall, a very seasonable October day across the Lowcountry.