After an unexpectedly cool day in which temperatures did not get out of the 50s for the first time since February 18, we have another rather chilly day ahead for Tuesday despite full sunshine. Air temperatures to start the day will run in the low 40s in the immediate metro area (and cooler than that further inland), but factor in a decent 5-10mph northwest breeze and it’ll feel closer to the mid-30s in the morning.

As the day goes on, freezing levels will drop close to 4,000 feet and occasionally breezy northwest winds will continue to pump cooler air into the area, keeping surface temperatures in the upper 50s at best in the afternoon. This is more in line with early January normals than mid-March. A very dry atmospheric column will preclude anything in the way of cloud cover, so sunshine will be brilliant and unfettered at least, and should make the resulting cool air temperature feel a little better.

The main weather story for the week ahead will be a solid round of much cooler air affecting the area around mid-week. Some spots, generally inland of the coast, may run into trouble with some frost or freezing temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (and perhaps again Wednesday night into Thursday morning).

Sunday will start rain-free but with more clouds than sun as moisture builds down into the area ahead of a storm system which will lift a warm front very close by. Low pressure moving along this warm front along with the continued influx of moisture should be enough to kick off some showers and maybe even a thunderstorm starting early afternoon. The peak of the rain should be in the evening hours as the low makes its closest approach, with shower chances hanging around through about midnight. Temperatures will be in the 60s much of the day after warming out of the upper 40s during the morning. As the warm front peeks north, we could briefly touch 70° or so from the metro area southward, but I’d be prepared for a lukewarm rain.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a storm system approaches the area from the west. We should remain rain-free through midnight before the atmosphere moistens sufficiently for showers to begin reaching the ground by tomorrow. Rain appears to be most likely from roughly mid-morning into early afternoon before cooler and drier air works into the area. Highs ahead of the front should peak in the low 70s despite the rain. A crack or two of thunder can’t be totally discounted, either.

Saturday is the pick day of the weekend for getting outside: it’ll run a little cooler and skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day. Expect highs to peak in the mid-60s after a start in the mid-40s. We should get Sunday morning in rain-free, especially near the coast, before precipitation chances head back up heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Highs should peak in the low 70s unless showers fire up sooner. The bulk of the rain looks to fall late Sunday into early Monday morning before a reasonably strong cold front punches through the area to send temperatures below normal for a few days next week. Stay tuned for timing changes on the rain as well as potential frost concerns for the middle of next week.

More seasonable weather for early March continues on Thursday with a few more clouds working their way into the area ahead of a storm system that’ll bring rain our way on Friday. We’ll start the day in the low-to-mid-40s before warming to the upper 60s in the afternoon. Rain chances should hold off until after midnight.

Today’s high was 87°, breaking the record of 86° set in 1961 while also being the warmest day of the year so far in 2023. Downtown got in on the record warmth action, too: the high of 84° broke the record of 83° set in 1945 and tied in 1961.

This changes drastically starting Wednesday. Lows in the 60s turn into lows in the mid-40s; highs in the 80s drop off 20°+ to the mid-60s in the wake of a front that is ushering in some much more seasonable — if not slightly below normal — temperatures for this point in the year. Winds may be gusty overnight as the cooler air moves in, and we’ll stay a little breezy through a good bit of Wednesday. The ongoing cool advection will counteract the otherwise mostly sunny skies to yield those mid-60s highs.

We’ve got one more day in the 80s coming up for Tuesday before the May-like warmth takes a backseat to more seasonable March temperatures. Temperatures will soar into the mid-80s in most spots except at the immediate coast as winds out of the west and northwest pin the seabreeze. We look to threaten record highs both at the airport and at downtown Charleston one more time — 86° and 83°, respectively, both set in 1961 — before a cold front sweeps through the area in the late afternoon/early evening hours.

Dewpoints will fall throughout the day as low-level moisture mixes out into an increasingly dry airmass. Once the front gets through, temperatures should hold in the upper 70s before falling quickly once daytime heating is lost. The front will pass through with little fanfare other than a wind shift more toward the north and then the northeast as cool high pressure builds in behind it. We’ll bottom out on Wednesday in the mid-to-upper 40s — easily the coolest start to a day since mid-February — and only top out in the mid-to-upper 60s in the afternoon, perhaps as much of a 20° drop from Tuesday’s high!

If you’ve enjoyed this stretch of exceptionally warm weather for this point in the year, savor the next couple days as we will be cooling off by mid-week, with this cooler weather looking to persist for a while as the pattern flips more favorably for below-normal temperatures for much of the continental US.

If it weren’t for the pollen, I’d unequivocally endorse this weekend as a great one to get out and about. Once a cold front and its associated thin line of showers clears the area overnight, skies will clear and give us a brilliant couple days. We start Saturday in the mid-60s as some of the slightly cooler and drier air lags a bit, but we’ll see dewpoints mix out nicely as the day goes on, allowing for a comfortably warm day as temperatures approach 80° but with less humidity than the past few days.

A secondary cold front will come through overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. It will be starved of moisture, so a dry passage is expected. The airmass behind this front is more noticeably cooler and drier. You’ll certainly feel the difference when we start Sunday around 50° — the coolest start to a day since the temperature bottomed out at 48° on February 20 — and only see temperatures rise into the low-to-mid 70s in the afternoon despite pristine skies. We’ll see some occasionally breezy conditions both days, but other than that, really nice weather is in store with a little more seasonable feel on the way.

Changes are coming in the forecast as we get through the weekend as the abnormal warmth for this point in the year finally starts to get blunted a bit.