I hope everyone has gotten to enjoy the last few quiet weather days — it’s been warm, but aside from a brief shower in spots, mostly quiet. This begins to change on Labor Day as a cold front moves into the area from the north. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of the front, with rain chances peaking in the afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected, but some brief periods of heavy rain will be possible.

We’ll have one more day of seasonably warm temperatures before high pressure wedging southward drives some cooler air into the area for much of the upcoming week. Expect to start Labor Day in the mid-70s, warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon before showers and thunderstorms fire up. Heat indices should run around 100° given dewpoints in the mid-70s.

The rest of the week will feature below-normal highs in the low to mid-80s each day within a persistent northeast flow. Unsettled weather will continue, though, with the front stalled to our south and a coastal trough hanging around for the foreseeable future. It won’t rain all the time, but the risk will certainly be there. I’ll have more details tomorrow evening.

It’s a Meat Loaf-like Labor Day weekend this year: Two out of three ain’t bad. We’ll continue this stretch of warm but mostly quiet weather (aside from a stray shower on the seabreeze) for Saturday and Sunday. Expect to start each day in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will generally run in the upper 90s — certainly still hot, but it could (and has!) been much worse.

Attention then turns to a front that will move into the area on Monday. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase throughout the day as the front sags south into the region. Temperatures will peak around 90° one more time before the front ushers in cooler air and continued unsettled weather as we get into the working portion of next week. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major concern, but we could see brief periods of heavy rain and lightning from any thunderstorm that fires. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors!