So the disclaimer at the outset with this weekend’s forecast, especially for Sunday, is that a lot hinges on the eventual path, forward speed, and strength of what is, as of this writing, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. You’ll want to keep closer tabs on forecast updates than you normally might as things are a little more fluid than normal due to the uncertainty.
With that in mind, though, one thing that’s certain is that Saturday is going to be a hot and muggy day with ample storms in the afternoon. Temperatures don’t look to get below 80° across more of the metro area than we might like, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 70s will yield heat indices that peak around advisory criteria (108°) before showers and storms develop and cool things down.
Sunday will start on the mild side once again, but showers and thunderstorms should — provided the current NHC track for Four holds — become fairly widespread across the area by Sunday afternoon as the surge of tropical moisture and a little daytime heating combine for some rather heavy downpours. The upside will be that highs will be suppressed to the mid-80s, but I’d expect it to be soggy enough to where we wouldn’t get to enjoy that all that much. An inch or two of rain will be possible Sunday, especially near the coast.
The weather stays hot and turns increasingly unsettled as we get into Friday and the weekend. Warmth peaks Friday; expect highs in the mid-90s to combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices approaching 110°. Another Heat Advisory, while having not yet been issued at publish time, certainly seems like a decent possibility for Friday, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should provide some relief to a few of us, though slow-moving storms are certainly a possibility and could lead to some localized flooding. Strong wind gusts remain a concern as well.
Shower and storm chances increase heading into Saturday and especially on Sunday as a weakening front approaches the area and stalls out. Temperatures will start to trend downward a bit thanks to the increase in storm coverage and cloud cover, though Saturday continues to look quite toasty with peak heat indices around 105°. Storms should fire by mid-afternoon and could be somewhat numerous Saturday. Greater coverage is expected on Sunday as the front stalls nearby and moisture continues to increase. That’ll keep highs in the low 90s at most in the afternoon. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, slow-moving storms could produce localized flooding. Be ready to halt outdoor activities if a storm approaches.
Heat will be the main weather story on Thursday as air temperatures reach into the mid-90s and dewpoints peak in the mid-70s, combining for heat indices that could approach 110-115° in the afternoon. This has prompted an Excessive Heat Watch from noon-8PM, when heat indices could be highest. If the forecast indicates heat indices approaching or exceeding 113°, this could be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning; otherwise, a Heat Advisory would likely be the move barring an unexpected cooler start (like we saw today, in fact!)
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. We could also see storms coming our way from the Midlands once again as well. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you can never rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year.
