I hope everyone has gotten to enjoy the last few quiet weather days — it’s been warm, but aside from a brief shower in spots, mostly quiet. This begins to change on Labor Day as a cold front moves into the area from the north. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase ahead of the front, with rain chances peaking in the afternoon and evening. Severe storms are not expected, but some brief periods of heavy rain will be possible.

We’ll have one more day of seasonably warm temperatures before high pressure wedging southward drives some cooler air into the area for much of the upcoming week. Expect to start Labor Day in the mid-70s, warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon before showers and thunderstorms fire up. Heat indices should run around 100° given dewpoints in the mid-70s.

The rest of the week will feature below-normal highs in the low to mid-80s each day within a persistent northeast flow. Unsettled weather will continue, though, with the front stalled to our south and a coastal trough hanging around for the foreseeable future. It won’t rain all the time, but the risk will certainly be there. I’ll have more details tomorrow evening.

It’s a Meat Loaf-like Labor Day weekend this year: Two out of three ain’t bad. We’ll continue this stretch of warm but mostly quiet weather (aside from a stray shower on the seabreeze) for Saturday and Sunday. Expect to start each day in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will generally run in the upper 90s — certainly still hot, but it could (and has!) been much worse.

Attention then turns to a front that will move into the area on Monday. We’ll see the risk for showers and thunderstorms increase throughout the day as the front sags south into the region. Temperatures will peak around 90° one more time before the front ushers in cooler air and continued unsettled weather as we get into the working portion of next week. Severe weather doesn’t look to be a major concern, but we could see brief periods of heavy rain and lightning from any thunderstorm that fires. Remember: when thunder roars, go indoors!

The good news is that much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend is looking pretty good: expect highs generally to run in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 90s expected after taking into account dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. A stray shower or storm can’t be completely ruled out, especially as you head inland, but otherwise we should stay mostly quiet across the area.

A pattern change is in the offing, though, that will help drive a front toward the area for Monday. We’ll start Labor Day in the mid-70s once again, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. As the front pushes southward, the risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase, with a decent shot at some storms arriving by Monday evening. This will kick off a stretch of unsettled — but cooler — weather as the front stalls to our south and high pressure wedges southward across the area. A nearby coastal trough should keep rain chances in place for much of next week, though we have a few more summery days to enjoy before then!

Our stretch of high-pressure-dominated weather continues on Thursday as warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies continue. We start the day in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low 70s will ultimately yield heat indices around 100-101°. A few patches of fog will be possible in the morning, but otherwise, another generally quiet weather day is expected.

Warm and muggy conditions continue for the rest of the work week as high pressure ridges aloft and at the surface. This should help keep showers to a dull roar, though I suppose with the airmass we can’t ever totally rule out a rogue popup shower (like we saw today).

We may start Wednesday with some fog once again, but that should mix out by 9-10am to yield a mostly sunny day with highs in the low to mid-90s. Dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will combine with those air temperatures to make it feel closer to 105° in the height of the afternoon, so be sure you’re taking frequent breaks and getting plenty of water if you’re outside during that time.

We’ll keep this going Thursday into Friday, with lows in the mid-70s each morning yielding to highs in the low 90s each afternoon with just a few clouds from time to time. The stacked high pressure will give any enterprising updraft trying to become a shower a very, very hard time, and rain-free conditions are expected as a result.