Heat peaks Thursday before scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms fire along the seabreeze in the afternoon. From there, a cold front sags southward across the area, and keeps shower and storm chances going through Thursday night. We’ll start the day on the warm side with lows in the mid-70s. More westerly winds will keep things a bit drier to start the day, but these winds will help enhance convergence along the seabreeze for those aforementioned showers and thunderstorms as we get into the afternoon. Before thunderstorms begin to disrupt the temperature curve, highs will peak in the low 90s, and heat indices will easily run in the mid-90s, perhaps getting closer to 100° than we’d like in the Highway 17 corridor.

Severe thunderstorms aren’t expected, but some gusty winds can’t be ruled out. There’s plenty of available moisture for a lot of rain to fall in a short period in a few spots, too, but not everyone will see a downpour. However, it seems probable that most of us should be able to measure precipitation by Friday morning.

More opportunities for much-needed rainfall will continue for the rest of the work week and beyond as a front approaches the area and stalls out. Warm and muggy conditions will be a mainstay as well, especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Unsettled weather will continue for the rest of the abbreviated work week as we remain on the periphery of Atlantic high pressure, with plenty of moisture available for the seabreeze and other boundaries to kick off showers and thunderstorms each day. Some much-needed rain will fall, and those chances will improve heading into next weekend.

A few more showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Memorial Day, but overall it will be a fairly decent representation of summertime. We’ll start the day in the low 70s, warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely in the morning, propagating inland during the day. Coverage will be less than Sunday, but you’ll still want to keep an ear out for thunder, which will be your signal to head indoors as at that point, you are at risk of getting struck by lightning. However, this is no reason to cancel any outdoor plans — just make sure you’ve got a good secondary, indoor plan.

Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will continue to be in play for the forecast as we get into the midpoint of the long Memorial Day weekend, though the greater activity will continue to be found along and west of the I-95 corridor. For Sunday, we can expect the bulk of our activity likely during the morning and early afternoon hours before the seabreeze pushes inland and takes most of the activity with it. However, showers will be possible throughout the day, so be ready to move outdoor plans inside just in case a shower or thunderstorm approaches.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany a warm and muggy Memorial Day weekend, but don’t expect a rainout, either. Temperatures will generally run in the upper 80s each day, but dewpoints around 70° will make it feel closer to 90-91° pretty much every afternoon.