More active weather is expected Thursday as a stalled front combines with a favorable upper-air configuration and plenty of available moisture for numerous showers and thunderstorms. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, be ready for downpours to affect your day. We could see showers and storms fire overnight near the coast, in fact, and those could impact the morning commute, while guidance continues to paint solid afternoon thunderstorm chances as well.

This at least helps drives temperatures down a touch: while the low of 77° is still quite balmy, highs top out in the low 90s at best with heat indices running lower than they have on previous days. (A meteorological Pyrrhic victory, perhaps, but so it goes in late July.)

Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances will be in play each starting Wednesday as disturbances within southwest flow aloft add some lift to the generally favorable thermodynamics. Temperatures on Wednesday start in the upper 70s, warming to the low-to-mid-90s by afternoon. As far as storms, some coastal storms, perhaps with waterspouts, will again be possible with the morning land breeze. Then, once the seabreeze becomes established, we should see more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity inland.

Rain chances tick up even further Thursday and peak Friday as a front sags south nearby. This will help keep highs capped to around if not slightly below normal, especially Friday. Both days, expect decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain and a strong storm or two can’t be totally ruled out. Friday looks particularly active with the threat for isolated flooding possible. To this end, The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. Fingers crossed for no commute problems, but it’s something to watch.

Heat and humidity will continue to rule the roost for Tuesday and for the next couple days as we stay within southerly flow at the surface and aloft, keeping the moisture pump moving right along. This will also lead to periods of storms. Guidance is hinting at another round of morning showers and storms near the coast as the land breeze develops before afternoon storms develop further inland. Coverage will generally be scattered in nature, and not all of us will see rain as a result. Highs top out in the low 90s after a start in the upper 70s; expect heat indices to get close to advisory criteria in the afternoon, perhaps approaching 107°.