A fairly standard mid-July weekend lies ahead across the metro area. Highs top out in the low-to-mid-90s each day after starting out in the mid-to-upper 70s. The seabreeze will be the main instigator for afternoon and evening thunderstorms; as is customary for this point in the year, heavy rain and frequent lightning are the main threats, with gusty winds possible within the strongest storms. Severe or not, all thunderstorms are dangerous due to the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors.

Friday and the weekend will feature another round of warm temperatures, with heat indices running 105-110° by the weekend, and a solid chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. We’ll start each day in the upper 70s — perhaps not getting below 80° downtown and at the beaches — before warming to the mid-90s each afternoon. Surface dewpoints running solidly in the mid-70s will yield heat indices approaching 105° on Friday. The weekend should peak even hotter, with heat indices approaching 105-110° each afternoon. Stay tuned for the potential for Heat Advisories from the National Weather Service.

From there, showers and thunderstorms will fire each afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will be the main concerns, though the stronger updrafts found where outflow boundaries collide could be capable of producing a marginally severe storm or two with damaging wind gusts the main concern. As is often the case in July, it will not rain all day, and some of you may not see rain every day. Just be ready to bring outdoor activities inside in case thunderstorms approach. Severe or not, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. “When thunder roars, go indoors!”

Expect one more generally quiet weather day on Thursday (though a shower or storm can’t be ruled out in the afternoon, especially further inland) before things turn more unsettled as a trough digs in for Friday and the weekend.