An unsettled week lies ahead, particularly for those of us near the coast, as a possible tropical or hybrid cyclone develops and moves toward Florida around mid-week before recurving with a cold front later in the week. After that front gets through, below-normal temperatures will arrive by Sunday.

We’ve got another unseasonably warm day on tap for Sunday as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft continues to extend into the Carolinas. High clouds will favor prominently well ahead of a cold front to our west, but that won’t act as much of a governor on temperatures with low 80s still expected in the afternoon. Indeed, onshore flow is likely going to be the only thing keeping us from approaching the record high of 87° set in 2003.

The morning warmth is almost more remarkable: lows in the upper 60s are forecast, which is getting close to 20° above normal for this point in the year. We should fall shy of the record high minimum temperature of 71° set in 2003, but it does look like we’ll give the record a good run for the money.

A stray shower or two can’t be totally ruled out, but we’ll stay sandwiched between the front to the west and better instability and convergence over the waters and should stay dry as a result.

Finally, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the 6:05 AM high tide as we approach a full moon on Tuesday. Water levels approaching 7′ in the harbor could put some salt water on roads around Gadsden Creek once again — think Fishburne and Hagood — as well as spots along Lockwood (both Drive and Boulevard).

Even warmer weather is in the forecast for Friday and the weekend as high pressure at the surface slips offshore and winds turn southerly. Friday will still have a semblance of a fall feel, at least in the morning, as lows dip into the upper 50s ahead of highs in the upper 70s in the afternoon.

Thereafter, a more southerly component of wind begins to kick in, and we will begin to see temperatures (and humidity) kick up another notch. Saturday and Sunday will both start in the mid-60s — some 15° above normal — with highs reaching into the low 80s each afternoon. We’ll get close to record high minimums this weekend, but don’t anticipate breaching those. (The record high minimum for Saturday is 69°, and for Sunday is 71°, both set in 2003 during a record warm stretch.) Rainfall should be largely a non-issue, though a shower or two can’t be ruled out from time to time especially later this weekend as some upper energy interacts with a surface trough to our west.

The upcoming full moon and continued onshore flow will contribute to minor coastal flooding around times of high tide beginning Friday evening. More substantial coastal flooding will be possible as we head into next week as we watch for the potential for low pressure to develop in the western Atlantic, cranking the pressure gradient and northeasterly winds. This low could drive rain chances up in our neck of the woods as well, but the forecast extent of the rain still needs some finesse. Stay tuned this weekend for updates.

If you’re looking for a return to that fall feel that we had for a couple weeks in October, you may be waiting a little while: above-normal temperatures are favored through mid-month in the eastern third of the continental US. There are some signs that the pattern might change as we head toward Thanksgiving and beyond — stay tuned, though.

Weather’s looking good for Thursday as high pressure at the surface and aloft are in control. It will remain mild for November with temperatures running a few degrees above normal, especially in the morning. Expect plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds from time to time. If there’s one thing that might throw a fly in the ointment for an outdoors lunch, it’s that there will be a bit of a northeasterly breeze. Pin your napkins down appropriately and otherwise enjoy!

The only other weather concern will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 5PM high tide. This could have commute impacts around Lockwood Dr. and the Citadel as salt water spills onto Fishburne and Hagood. If this is part of your evening commute, consider another route to avoid salt water splashing onto your car’s undercarriage.

The weather will be generally quiet and comfortably warm for the rest of the work week, with temperatures running at or above normal for the foreseeable future as ridging develops in the Southeast. Northeasterly winds will keep temperatures generally in the mid-to-upper 70s each afternoon. Dewpoints in the 50s will generally be comfortable, though we should see those begin to creep back into the 60s starting Friday afternoon as moisture return inches up for the weekend.

The only hazard we’ll be watching for heading toward the weekend is the risk for minor coastal flooding with the afternoon and evening high tides, particularly Thursday and Friday, as persistent northeasterly wind and the approaching full moon (Nov 8) will combine to drive water levels over 7′. We could see evening high tides approaching moderate flood threshold by the weekend, so stay tuned for forecast updates.