We’ve got another unseasonably warm day ahead Tuesday ahead of a front that will sweep through on Wednesday. Ahead of that front, we’ll see an increase in cloud cover, and eventually some shower activity later in the afternoon into the evening and overnight. Temperatures Tuesday start in the low to mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Southwesterly winds will keep the tides at bay, thankfully, and we should fall short of the coastal flooding threshold with the mid-morning high tide, with no coastal flooding expected for the next few days at least.
The week ahead gets off to a warm start, but some seasonably cool weather featuring temperatures a few clicks below normal sets in for the second half of the week.
Monday starts with temperatures in the upper 40s. As high pressure begins to shift offshore, we’ll start to see temperatures warm back to the mid-70s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. We’ll have one more round of coastal flooding in the morning, but it will not be nearly as severe as what we’ve seen the past few mornings as water levels should only peak around 7.2′ with the 9:31am high tide. Still, expect a few road closures in the more vulnerable trouble spots downtown for a few hours during the commute. From there, winds go more unfavorable and the astronomical impacts from the recent full moon continue to lessen.
The only period of unsettled weather looks to take place later Tuesday through Wednesday as a front comes through (the impetus for our cooldown beginning Thursday). Much of Tuesday should get in rain-free, but will be well on the warmer side of normal with lows in the low 50s yielding to highs in the mid-70s in the afternoon. Shower chances increase around and after sunset, and hang around through midday Wednesday. We’ll see cloud cover diminish as Wednesday goes on, but lagging cooler air will let temperatures back to the mid-70s for one more afternoon after an abnormally mild start in the low 60s.
Cool air begins to kick in overnight Wednesday, and we’ll start Thursday in the upper 40s. Highs on Thursday, though, will struggle above 60° despite considerable sunshine. We’ll repeat this performance on Friday, with an even cooler start in the low 40s. A slow warming trend begins over the weekend, but expect temperatures to remain below normal with highs in the low to mid-60s and lows in the low 40s each day with plenty of sunshine throughout.
Cool high pressure will be in control this weekend, and we will get a taste of more seasonable conditions for mid-November than we’ve had thus far this month.
First, though, there is the potential for major coastal flooding for the second time in three days with Saturday morning’s high tide, which is predicted around 7:46am. Water levels in Charleston Harbor are projected to peak between 8.1-8.3′ MLLW with this tide, and this will cause numerous road closures throughout downtown Charleston, as well as flooding issues on Isle of Palms, Mt. Pleasant, and perhaps even parts of James Island. Be vigilant and be ready to reroute in case you encounter a flooded road. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect between 6-10am, and if trends continue, expect this to be upgraded to a Coastal Flood Warning. Also, if the predicted forecast height of 8.2′ comes to pass, it’d be a top-25 tide on record at Charleston Harbor.
Water levels should diminish by mid-morning, and from there, a fairly nice Saturday commences. Expect quite a bit of sunshine, with temperatures warming from the mid-40s in the morning to the upper 60s in the afternoon, just about right on target for normal for this point in the year. Sunday should turn a touch warmer, but a high of 70° is just a teeny bit warmer than normal, so that seasonable feel will continue. Unfortunately, another round of moderate to major coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning’s high tide, though it should not be as severe as Saturday’s.
From there, a warming trend commences for the first half of the week before a mid-week front. The second half of next week looks much cooler than normal, with highs possibly not making it out of the 50s next Thursday! But let’s enjoy the weekend first.
Showers scour out overnight Thursday, and by Friday morning, clouds will be diminishing as cooler and drier air works into the area. We’ll start the day in the upper 40s to around 50°, while the continued influx of cooler air will keep highs pinned to the mid-60s despite increasingly full sunshine. The only fly in the ointment will be the risk for minor to moderate coastal flooding around high tide, which should peak just before 7am. Water levels between 7.3-7.5′ are forecast, which will close some roads, though not as extensively as we saw Thursday morning.
Seasonable and quiet conditions continue for the weekend. Saturday should be a particularly nice day, with lows in the mid-40s yielding to highs in the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon, while temperatures turn a little warmer for Sunday as highs get to the low 70s after another upper 40s start. Sunshine will be very prevalent throughout the weekend, and I hope you get a chance to take advantage of weather that feels much more appropriate for mid-November.
Coastal flooding concerns will continue into the weekend, though, with major flooding expected with Saturday morning’s high tide as water levels are expected to peak around 8-8.2′ with the 7:46am high tide. Expect another round of numerous road closures in downtown Charleston on Saturday morning. Moderate to potentially major flooding can’t be ruled out for Sunday morning, either, as water levels once again approach 8′. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Watches, Warnings, and Advisories from the National Weather Service as your signal that travel could turn difficult.
