A cold front will sag southward over the area overnight, taking the edge off some of this very unseasonable warmth (which included tying the record high of 85° at the airport today). We’ll still stay warmer than normal this weekend, though, as a more substantial airmass change remains largely out of reach for now.

Saturday starts in the mid-60s as high pressure pushes south into the area. Northeasterly winds will kick up a touch, and this will help keep temperatures from getting too far beyond the mid-70s in the afternoon despite a good bit of sunshine. It’ll be noticeably drier, too: the absurd-for-November 70s dewpoints get shunted southward in favor of drier air characterized by dewpoints in the upper 50s.

The reprieve is somewhat short-lived, though, as the parent high heads offshore, allowing a coastal trough to sharpen and move ashore Sunday. We start Sunday around 60°, but will warm back into the upper 70s in the afternoon with increasing cloud cover along with dewpoints heading back into the mid-60s. A shower or two will be possible as we head into Sunday evening, and that risk will hang around through Tuesday.

Looking ahead, we see next week continuing to generally feature above-normal temperatures for the first half, but a front should swing through late week that will knock temperatures back closer to November normals in time for the weekend.

A brief respite from the really unseasonable weather arrives this weekend behind a front, but first we deal with Friday and the potential for a shower or two along with one more day of very warm temperatures. Expect lows in the upper 60s to yield to the low 80s in the afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds around the shower activity.

A front gets through later Friday, though, and this begins to temper things a little bit — though by no means anywhere near where we should be for this point in November. Expect a fairly nice day on Saturday, though, with lows in the mid-60s warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. A few more clouds arrive on the scene for Sunday, but we should stay rain-free again, with lows around 60° warming to the upper 70s in the afternoon.

We’ll briefly return to the 80s early next week before a front moves by on Tuesday. This front will help take the edge off some of the warmer temperatures, getting us much closer to mid-November normals, but still on the warm side of normal, with highs in the low to mid-70s and lows in the mid-50s expected starting around mid-week.

Rain continues on Thursday as northward-moving moisture from Hurricane Rafael interacts with a front. As far as average temperature goes, it’s going to be a particularly warm November day: expect to start the day in the upper 60s to around 70°, with highs topping out around 78° (largely governed by the expected rain). If it verifies, the low of 69° would be a new record warm low temperature for November 7, breaking the record of 68° set in 2018.

Rainfall totals should continue to climb across the area, with another 1-2″ possible across much of the metro overnight into Thursday evening. Expect the best chances for rain during the morning, with some scattering of the activity as we get into the afternoon and evening hours. Flooding doesn’t look to be a major concern here, but if training of rain does occur, some localized issues can’t be ruled out.

Many stations recorded a good bit of measurable rainfall yesterday, and it looks like we have another round of it coming Wednesday evening into Thursday courtesy of the interaction of Tropical Storm Rafael in the Gulf and a cold front. Meanwhile, the airmass remains awfully tropical for early November, and we should set a new record warm low temperature on Thursday as a result.

Wednesday will start out quiet and mild (mid-60s lows expected), but expect showers to increase across the area as we get into the afternoon and evening hours, including around the evening commute. Temperatures top out in the low 80s before rain overtakes the area. We could even hear some rumbles of thunder thanks to the spring-like dewpoints around 70-72°.

Rain continues on Thursday and should be around for much of the day. We start the day around 70° — which would be a record warm low for the date — and warm only to around the upper 70s given the cloud cover and ongoing rainfall. Many spots will end up with 1-2″ of rain before this is over, with even higher amounts possible west of 26. It’s much-needed rain, and given that it’s been so dry, the flooding risk is low (provided pockets of heavier rain don’t train over the same urban areas).

High pressure builds back in for Friday and into the weekend, giving us a chance to dry out. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will persist, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s continuing each day well into next week.

A few showers will be in the cards as we head to the polls for Election Day on Tuesday, but it won’t be a washout and should be minimally disruptive to voting. We start the day about 15° above normal with lows in the mid-60s, warming to 80° in the afternoon. We’ll see some peeks of sun from time to time as well. Go out and make your voice heard!