Atlantic high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring on progressively warmer weather as we hit Thursday and the rest of the Bridge Run weekend. We may set some record warm low temperatures during this stretch, starting with Thursday’s forecast low of 67°, which would tie the record warm low set in 2012. It’ll be a partly cloudy day, and the increasing influence of high pressure will keep any shower activity at bay (unlike what a few of us saw on Wednesday as a warm front lifted north). Temperatures will head to the mid-80s in the afternoon, which should get us right into some of the warmest air so far this year.
After a raucous evening, we’ll have a much quieter Tuesday ahead as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front. The post-frontal airmass won’t feel much like a cold front came by, though, as temperatures will only come in a couple clicks below where they did on Monday (83° ended up as the day’s high temperature). Generally speaking, expect lows in the low 60s to warm to the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
Another nice day is ahead for Thursday as high pressure slides by to our north. Temperatures start in the mid-40s, warming to the mid-70s under sunny skies for one more day. With the center of high pressure shifting more north of the area, winds will swing around more to the northeast and the east. It’ll be another dry day, relative humidity-wise, especially away from the coast as dewpoints mix down to the 30s in the afternoon. An inland-moving seabreeze will send dewpoints up into the low 40s as we get later into the day, but it’ll still feel quite comfortable outside.
After a front swings through late Monday, quiet weather takes root for the rest of the week starting Tuesday. And what a nice day of weather Tuesday will bring: after starting in the low 50s, temperatures warm into the mid-70s in the afternoon with plenty of sunshine and low humidity. Once again, a shame the pollen is such a thing this time of year, because it’s looking like a beautiful day to get out and about where you have opportunities to do so.
Showers return to the forecast on Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. We’ll get off to a comfortable start, with temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s to start the day. The front should show up later in the day, and we’ll get some rain-free time in, warming to the mid-70s before showers arrive. Model guidance brings the rain into the area by mid-afternoon and gets it through the area about 2-3 hours later. The rain won’t amount to much; about a quarter-inch at most. It’ll turn breezy as the front moves by, with gusts 20-30 MPH possible. Once it’s through, we’ll start to cool down heading into the overnight.
The main weather story for Sunday will be the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in association with a squall line moving through the area generally from the mid-morning through mid-afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts will be the overriding concern, but a tornado or two cannot be discounted, nor can some sporadic hail reports be discounted as well.
We’ll see a few more clouds on Thursday as a shortwave trough swings through aloft, but other than a slight downtick in temperatures compared to Wednesday’s highs in the low 80s, we’ll remain seasonably warm as surface high pressure remains anchored in the Atlantic for one more day. We’ll keep an eye on the moisture profiles to make sure that no showers try to overachieve with the upper-level energy moving by, but the expectation is that it’ll just be too dry for much more than the enhanced cloud cover.
Much more sunshine is in store for Tuesday as low pressure pulls away from the area at the surface and aloft. This will help warm things up, too — after a mid-40s start, downslope winds out of the northwest and the aforementioned sunshine will push highs to the low 70s in the afternoon, a couple degrees above normal for March 11. Overall, a much nicer day than Monday (weather-wise, anyway).
After a windy and occasionally rainy Wednesday that, thankfully, didn’t result in any severe weather, we will turn much cooler and sunnier for Thursday. Temperatures start in the low 40s, warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon with breezy conditions featuring gusts 25-30 MPH at times, particularly in the morning through the early afternoon as high pressure builds in. We’ll see that high pressure settle in a little more later Thursday night, and that will help winds go a little calmer and start to cool us off for potential frost and freeze issues inland for Thursday overnight into Friday morning.
