Showers return to the forecast on Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. We’ll get off to a comfortable start, with temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s to start the day. The front should show up later in the day, and we’ll get some rain-free time in, warming to the mid-70s before showers arrive. Model guidance brings the rain into the area by mid-afternoon and gets it through the area about 2-3 hours later. The rain won’t amount to much; about a quarter-inch at most. It’ll turn breezy as the front moves by, with gusts 20-30 MPH possible. Once it’s through, we’ll start to cool down heading into the overnight.
Warm weather continues for Friday and the weekend ahead of our next storm system on Sunday, which could bring us a round of strong to severe thunderstorms.
We’ll see a few more clouds on Thursday as a shortwave trough swings through aloft, but other than a slight downtick in temperatures compared to Wednesday’s highs in the low 80s, we’ll remain seasonably warm as surface high pressure remains anchored in the Atlantic for one more day. We’ll keep an eye on the moisture profiles to make sure that no showers try to overachieve with the upper-level energy moving by, but the expectation is that it’ll just be too dry for much more than the enhanced cloud cover.
After a windy and occasionally rainy Wednesday that, thankfully, didn’t result in any severe weather, we will turn much cooler and sunnier for Thursday. Temperatures start in the low 40s, warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon with breezy conditions featuring gusts 25-30 MPH at times, particularly in the morning through the early afternoon as high pressure builds in. We’ll see that high pressure settle in a little more later Thursday night, and that will help winds go a little calmer and start to cool us off for potential frost and freeze issues inland for Thursday overnight into Friday morning.
We’ll climb back aboard the temperature rollercoaster this weekend as a series of fronts affect the area. The first one, coming through Thursday night into early Friday, will knock temperatures down about 10° or so with highs in the upper 60s expected Friday afternoon with mostly sunny skies. This is just a click on the warm side of normal for February 28, which marks the end of climatological winter.
After reaching 79° on Wednesday, some 13° above normal for this point in the year, we’re back in the mid-to-upper 70s on Thursday but with some increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching cold front. Moisture ahead of the front won’t be the best, but a few showers will be possible later Thursday into the overnight as it gets by, so be aware for the potential for a little rain. It’ll also be a bit of a breezy day, with winds 15-20 MPH possible out of the southwest particularly in the afternoon.
After a chilly and dreary Thursday where temperatures barely got up to the low 40s, we’ll at least see the sun on Friday. Still, though, it’s going to be very chilly, with lows in the mid-20s and wind chills in the mid-to-upper teens to start the day, warming only to the mid-40s in the afternoon despite that additional sunshine. In fact, we’re in line to break the daily cold high temperature record of 47° set on February 21, 2020 as highs are set to peak just in the mid-40s.
Clouds will thin out throughout the day Thursday as colder and drier air pours into the area from the northwest. We’ll start the day around freezing, warming to just the mid-40s in the afternoon despite the increasingly sunny skies. The last time we had a high temperature this cold was January 24, when the high was only 47° courtesy of 2″ of snow still on the ground from the 1/22 snowstorm. (The record cold high temperature of 39°, set in 2015, will remain intact, thankfully.)
A cold front that brought showers and a few thunderstorms to the Lowcountry — including a tornado warning for Hilton Head Island — is through the area, and we’ll start Friday on a much cooler note as a result. Expect lows in the low 40s Friday morning, warming only to the upper 50s in the afternoon despite much more sunshine.
A warm front will lift north of the area overnight, scouring out some dense fog and sending much warmer and more humid air into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Within the warm sector, we’ll start in the mid-50s, warming to the mid-70s early on before a line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms approaches the area, generally affecting the metro between 10am-4pm. Severe weather is unlikely this far north where instability is a bit more meager, but a rumble of thunder or two with a strong wind gust is still not totally out of the question. You won’t need the rain gear all day, though, as storms should be offshore by evening with the front following thereafter.
