The good news is that much of the upcoming Labor Day weekend is looking pretty good: expect highs generally to run in the low 90s each afternoon, with heat indices in the upper 90s expected after taking into account dewpoints in the low to mid-70s. A stray shower or storm can’t be completely ruled out, especially as you head inland, but otherwise we should stay mostly quiet across the area.
A pattern change is in the offing, though, that will help drive a front toward the area for Monday. We’ll start Labor Day in the mid-70s once again, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. As the front pushes southward, the risk for showers and thunderstorms will increase, with a decent shot at some storms arriving by Monday evening. This will kick off a stretch of unsettled — but cooler — weather as the front stalls to our south and high pressure wedges southward across the area. A nearby coastal trough should keep rain chances in place for much of next week, though we have a few more summery days to enjoy before then!
Our stretch of high-pressure-dominated weather continues on Thursday as warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies continue. We start the day in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the low 70s will ultimately yield heat indices around 100-101°. A few patches of fog will be possible in the morning, but otherwise, another generally quiet weather day is expected.
The whiff of fall we’ve felt the past day or two starts to retreat a bit as we head into Friday and the weekend. (All good things…)
We do get one more really nice start on Friday, though. Expect to start the day in the mid-60s in much of the metro, running closer to 70° near the coast and even cooler further inland. We’ll warm to the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. Dewpoints will be climbing back into the upper 60s, so while not terribly oppressive, the humidity will be a little more noticeable. It should also support the risk for a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon after a couple reasonably quiet days.
The warming trend continues into the weekend. We’re back in the mid-80s on Saturday and the upper 80s on Sunday as dewpoints return to the 70s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon, but not everyone will see rain, nor will it be the kind of rain to completely ruin the day, either. Just keep an eye out for possible storms and be ready to move outdoor activities inside for a bit.
We’ve got a reasonably comfortable day (especially as late August goes) for Thursday as cool high pressure continues to rule the meteorological roost in our neck of the woods. We start the day in the upper 60s in much of the metro, likely dropping even lower further inland and in more rural locations. Temperatures should warm to the mid-80s in the afternoon, but humidity will be quite tolerable with mid-60s dewpoints expected. Clouds will be on the increase as a coastal trough takes shape, and there will be a risk for a shower near the coast, but much of us get the day in rain-free.
Friday and the weekend look mostly quiet as high pressure remains the main weather player for a few more days. We should start Friday in the mid-to-upper 60s in much of the metro (with low 70s on the coast); temperatures head to the low 90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. With dewpoints in the mid-60s, the heat index could actually run slightly cooler than the air temperature (yes, this can happen!). So, while it’ll still be on the hot side, it won’t be quite as bad as it has been.
Winds go more southerly starting Saturday, and we’ll see a slow uptick in dewpoints as a result, but Saturday still looks quite good. We’ll start in the low 70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies once again. Heat indices will run a degree or two warmer than the air temperature, but still generally not too out of bounds especially compared to what we’ve dealt with recently. Dewpoints creep back into the 70s on Sunday, and this will help drive a few scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening as another cold front approaches the area. We could see a stronger storm or two, but that’ll depend on the timing of the front. Overall, though, we should have a pretty good weekend of weather. And, given the fact that winds will go more southerly, the risk for coastal flooding is diminished for the upcoming weekend compared to yesterday’s forecast, though a little salt water on Fishburne at Hagood around the evening high tides could still be in play.
High pressure wedging southward across the area has brought some cooler and drier air to the area this evening, with dewpoints falling into the mid-60s (it’s been a minute!). This will yield a fairly nice (but still warm) day on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the low 70s and warm to the upper 80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. With the lack of moisture and influence of high pressure, rain isn’t expected (and won’t be for a few days). Overall, not too shabby for mid-August!
While Debby shuffles off to the northeast, our weather will remain unsettled as a trough persists aloft across the eastern half of the country. This will drive a surface front just close enough to stall out and keep elevated shower and thunderstorm chances in play each afternoon.
We returned to the 90s on Thursday and will head back there each afternoon for the foreseeable future. Lingering tropical moisture in the wake of Debby will help drive heat indices well into the 100s, perhaps flirting with advisory criteria despite low 90s air temperatures. Then, we should see showers and thunderstorms fire up each afternoon generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. Storm motions will generally be eastward, so some rain could spread to the coast.
Tropical Storm Debby will make landfall on the South Carolina coast somewhere around Bulls Bay up to Georgetown (taking the cone literally, the margin for error is between Mt. Pleasant and Myrtle Beach) overnight as it turns northward in response to high pressure building back in from the east. This landfall likely won’t really come with much fanfare as Debby’s inner core was hollowed out by land interaction and dry air over the past day or so. The strongest winds, in fact, are well away from the center of the storm. Still, there’s a risk for tropical storm-force winds at the coast and within gusts in rain bands, so the Tropical Storm Warning continues. With such saturated soils, it won’t take too much in the way of wind to bring trees down, so we’ll want to stay a little vigilant about possible power outages.
Showers with occasional downpours and some gusty winds to around 35 MPH have been commonplace throughout Wednesday and that should continue into the overnight through Thursday. Another inch-plus of rain should fall overnight through Thursday morning in the metro proper, with upwards of 2″ possible further inland (generally north and west of 17-A) where a fairly persistent rain band has been parked for a fair bit of the day.
We should see generally improving conditions on Thursday. Some spots may get another half-inch of rain or so as Debby begins to depart the area, and it’ll still be a little breezy, but overall, Debby’s effects will be winding down. Expect temperatures on Thursday to run a little warmer than they have in previous days, heading into the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon as the cloud shield begins to thin out.
The weather stays hot and turns increasingly unsettled as we get into Friday and the weekend. Warmth peaks Friday; expect highs in the mid-90s to combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices approaching 110°. Another Heat Advisory, while having not yet been issued at publish time, certainly seems like a decent possibility for Friday, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should provide some relief to a few of us, though slow-moving storms are certainly a possibility and could lead to some localized flooding. Strong wind gusts remain a concern as well.
Shower and storm chances increase heading into Saturday and especially on Sunday as a weakening front approaches the area and stalls out. Temperatures will start to trend downward a bit thanks to the increase in storm coverage and cloud cover, though Saturday continues to look quite toasty with peak heat indices around 105°. Storms should fire by mid-afternoon and could be somewhat numerous Saturday. Greater coverage is expected on Sunday as the front stalls nearby and moisture continues to increase. That’ll keep highs in the low 90s at most in the afternoon. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, slow-moving storms could produce localized flooding. Be ready to halt outdoor activities if a storm approaches.
Heat will be the main weather story on Thursday as air temperatures reach into the mid-90s and dewpoints peak in the mid-70s, combining for heat indices that could approach 110-115° in the afternoon. This has prompted an Excessive Heat Watch from noon-8PM, when heat indices could be highest. If the forecast indicates heat indices approaching or exceeding 113°, this could be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning; otherwise, a Heat Advisory would likely be the move barring an unexpected cooler start (like we saw today, in fact!)
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. We could also see storms coming our way from the Midlands once again as well. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you can never rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year.
