Tropical Storm Debby will make landfall on the South Carolina coast somewhere around Bulls Bay up to Georgetown (taking the cone literally, the margin for error is between Mt. Pleasant and Myrtle Beach) overnight as it turns northward in response to high pressure building back in from the east. This landfall likely won’t really come with much fanfare as Debby’s inner core was hollowed out by land interaction and dry air over the past day or so. The strongest winds, in fact, are well away from the center of the storm. Still, there’s a risk for tropical storm-force winds at the coast and within gusts in rain bands, so the Tropical Storm Warning continues. With such saturated soils, it won’t take too much in the way of wind to bring trees down, so we’ll want to stay a little vigilant about possible power outages.
Showers with occasional downpours and some gusty winds to around 35 MPH have been commonplace throughout Wednesday and that should continue into the overnight through Thursday. Another inch-plus of rain should fall overnight through Thursday morning in the metro proper, with upwards of 2″ possible further inland (generally north and west of 17-A) where a fairly persistent rain band has been parked for a fair bit of the day.
We should see generally improving conditions on Thursday. Some spots may get another half-inch of rain or so as Debby begins to depart the area, and it’ll still be a little breezy, but overall, Debby’s effects will be winding down. Expect temperatures on Thursday to run a little warmer than they have in previous days, heading into the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon as the cloud shield begins to thin out.
The weather stays hot and turns increasingly unsettled as we get into Friday and the weekend. Warmth peaks Friday; expect highs in the mid-90s to combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices approaching 110°. Another Heat Advisory, while having not yet been issued at publish time, certainly seems like a decent possibility for Friday, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should provide some relief to a few of us, though slow-moving storms are certainly a possibility and could lead to some localized flooding. Strong wind gusts remain a concern as well.
Shower and storm chances increase heading into Saturday and especially on Sunday as a weakening front approaches the area and stalls out. Temperatures will start to trend downward a bit thanks to the increase in storm coverage and cloud cover, though Saturday continues to look quite toasty with peak heat indices around 105°. Storms should fire by mid-afternoon and could be somewhat numerous Saturday. Greater coverage is expected on Sunday as the front stalls nearby and moisture continues to increase. That’ll keep highs in the low 90s at most in the afternoon. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, slow-moving storms could produce localized flooding. Be ready to halt outdoor activities if a storm approaches.
Heat will be the main weather story on Thursday as air temperatures reach into the mid-90s and dewpoints peak in the mid-70s, combining for heat indices that could approach 110-115° in the afternoon. This has prompted an Excessive Heat Watch from noon-8PM, when heat indices could be highest. If the forecast indicates heat indices approaching or exceeding 113°, this could be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning; otherwise, a Heat Advisory would likely be the move barring an unexpected cooler start (like we saw today, in fact!)
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. We could also see storms coming our way from the Midlands once again as well. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but you can never rule out a damaging wind gust or two this time of year.
Another round of heavy rain appears to be in the cards for Friday as a front continues to move southward into the very muggy and moist airmass that continues to linger over our neck of the woods. Temperatures start in the mid-70s once again, only warming to the upper 80s thanks to cloud cover and storms which should get going by mid-morning as the seabreeze develops. As of this writing, there is no new Flood Watch, but one could be issued by the time some of you read this in the morning. It won’t rain all day in any one location — this rarely happens in the summer — but where it rains, a lot could fall atop increasingly saturated ground. Stay tuned for possible Flood Advisories during the day Friday.
One more round of storms appears likely on Saturday as the front moves by, with more heavy rain potentially in the cards. Once again, temperatures will be suppressed a bit by the clouds and rain, with highs peaking in the upper 80s. Sunday is emerging as the pick day of the weekend, as the front will be south of here with a little bit of drier air building in featuring mid-to-upper 60s dewpoints, which is quite a contrast from the mid-70s dewpoints that typically characterize summer around here. Cloud cover should be minimal, though a stray afternoon storm can’t be totally ruled out. With the sun back out, expect highs to peak in the low 90s, but the drier air means lows will get to fall a bit, with low 70s expected away from the coast.
More active weather is expected Thursday as a stalled front combines with a favorable upper-air configuration and plenty of available moisture for numerous showers and thunderstorms. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, be ready for downpours to affect your day. We could see showers and storms fire overnight near the coast, in fact, and those could impact the morning commute, while guidance continues to paint solid afternoon thunderstorm chances as well.
This at least helps drives temperatures down a touch: while the low of 77° is still quite balmy, highs top out in the low 90s at best with heat indices running lower than they have on previous days. (A meteorological Pyrrhic victory, perhaps, but so it goes in late July.)
We’ve got a couple fairly active weather days ahead as low pressure nudges a front back inland across the area starting Friday. Then, heat really starts to build in on Sunday, with a stretch of heat indices well into Advisory territory expected to last several days.
Guidance suggests we could get off to an early start to spotty showers and thunderstorms on Friday before coverage becomes more widespread as the seabreeze kicks in later in the day. Temperatures start in the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest near the coast, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon in-between storms. Factor in dewpoints in the mid-70s and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Many of us should see some decent rain; an inch of rain looks to be a good bet in many spots, with some spots receiving upwards of 2″ (and maybe even a little more where locally heavy rainfall occurs). Severe weather is not expected, but minor flooding could occur where storms train. As the sun heads down, expect coverage to decrease.
Storms will continue into Saturday as energy aloft and low pressure at the surface affect the area for one more day. They’ll be a little more scattered in nature, though many of us could see some measurable rainfall once again. After another upper 70s to low 80s start, temperatures head back into the mid-90s in the afternoon with some spots flirting with Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices 108°+) in between storms.
Sunday will turn even hotter, with temperatures heading into the upper 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should venture into Heat Advisory territory, with fewer storms to cool some of us off as the pattern shifts back to a more traditional summertime setup with the Bermuda high to our east and the seabreeze pushing inland to kick off showers and storms. You’ll want to make sure you’re taking heat precautions if you find yourself out and about during the height of the afternoon. The hot temperatures look to stick around into at least the first part of next week, too, with heat indices perhaps approaching 110° at times with scattered afternoon storms to cool a few of us off.
A stalling front will briefly usher in slightly drier air on Thursday, helping to keep heat indices below heat advisory levels, but it’ll still be plenty warm with air temperatures peaking in the mid-90s and heat indices in the mid-100s expected. We should still see a few showers and thunderstorms pop in the afternoon, but like Wednesday, coverage should be reasonably limited.
The Fourth of July should be a generally quiet weather day across the area, featuring partly cloudy skies and generally near-normal temperatures (read: still fairly hot). We start the day in the mid-70s and will warm to the low-to-mid-90s away from the coast, which looks to run more into the upper 80s to around 90°. The heat index will run around 100° as dewpoints remain a touch lower than they have been (generally low 70s). You’ll want the sunscreen with the UV index expected to run close to 10 at the height of the afternoon. Ridging aloft will keep a lid on any thunderstorm activity, removing Mother Nature’s fireworks from the equation this go-around.
After some much-needed rainfall Thursday, we’ve got a few more shots at additional rain as we close out the month. In fact, the thunderstorm activity Thursday night will likely help keep temperatures and dewpoints down a little heading into Friday, with heat indices “only” in the low-to-mid-100s for many of us before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. The early return from the late Thursday evening model runs suggests less storm coverage Friday than we saw Thursday, but some of us will still see another round of needed rain.
The active summertime pattern stays in place for Saturday into Sunday as well, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with increasing dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to prompt Heat Advisory-level conditions once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire. Scattered coverage continues to be expected, with some of us getting luckier than others as far as rainfall goes. Some of the rain could be quite heavy at times, though, with minor flooding a possibility if it sets up in the more vulnerable locations. And as always, you can’t rule out a stronger or even marginally severe thunderstorm in the summertime; while there isn’t much to hang your hat on as far as organized storms, boundary and cell collisions can help bring down some strong wind gusts.
The meteorological status quo continues on Thursday: Heat, humidity, and a few storms in the afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly heinous on Thursday, with lows barely dipping below 80° away from the warmer coastline and highs getting into the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Mix in dewpoints in the mid-70s, and that’ll yield another day of dangerous heat indices in the 107-110° range. I’d be ready for yet another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow.
A front sinking southward into the area combined with the usual seabreeze influence will help improve shower and thunderstorm chances for more of us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible, and some gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm as well. A stray Severe Thunderstorm Warning certainly is in the cards, but widespread severe weather isn’t expected.
