Thunderstorms will continue to feature prominently in the forecast as we head into the second half of the work week as warm and humid conditions continue. Temperatures will generally run pretty steady-state, right around normal for this point in the year with lows in the low 70s warming to the upper 80s each afternoon, with some moderation in temperatures expected at times thanks to thunderstorms. It won’t rain all the time as the best chances for storms will arrive each afternoon, though a stray storm or two can’t be ruled out at any point.
The risk for organized severe weather will decrease heading into the second half of the work week as high pressure ridges in aloft. Still, colliding outflow boundaries and storms interacting with the seabreeze can help produce short-lived, localized severe weather. Be sure you’re listening for weather warnings as you head out and about, just in case.
Showers and storms, a few of which could be on the strong side, will be possible again on Tuesday, particularly in the afternoon, as low pressure aloft remains in place and the heating of the day kicks in. The warm and muggy airmass stays in place, with lows in the low 70s warming to the upper 80s in the afternoon before storms develop. Guidance suggests showers and storms develop in the 2-3 PM timeframe, and there will be the risk for a storm or two to become severe once again with damaging winds the main threat. The risk for severe weather is a little lower Tuesday, but will still need to be monitored especially after a rough day for Summerville.
A coastal low will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with potentially heavy rain, to the Lowcountry starting late tonight and peaking Wednesday into Thursday.
We’ve got one more day of quiet weather in store for Tuesday before low pressure offshore begins to send moisture back our direction starting Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday start in the mid-60s, and we’ll warm to the mid-to-upper 80s under generally partly cloudy skies as high pressure builds in briefly from the north.
The active pattern that’s kept things on the stormy side the past few days will continue until a front sweeps through the area late Friday, clearing things up a bit for the weekend. For now, though, we’re still going to be dodging scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
The weather will remain unsettled for the rest of this last work week of May with plenty of warm and humid air for various surface boundaries and mid-level impulses to stir things up, especially in the afternoons and evenings.
The unseasonable warmth of the past week and change will draw to a close on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area. We’ll start Wednesday in the mid-70s, warming to the mid-90s in the afternoon. There’s a chance for a storm or two ahead of the front, but it’s conceivable that many of us may not see any rain at all with this frontal passage. If a storm or two can get going, it could turn strong to severe, but the chances are very low.
Expect less in the way of cloud cover on Tuesday as the front that helped focus some shower and thunderstorm activity across the area on Monday meanders north and high pressure builds in aloft with plenty of dry, sinking air to be found. We’ll stay on the toasty side of normal for mid-May, with lows in the low 70s warming to the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints aren’t terribly out of control, thankfully, so heat indices won’t be too much of a factor, only running about 2-3° or so above the air temperature. That said, it’s still quite warm for this point in the year — the normal high for May 20 is 84°.
We have one more day of scattered storms in store as low pressure aloft opens up into a trough and interacts with the seabreeze in the afternoon. Once again, we get off to a very mild start with lows in the upper 60s expected. Temperatures will head to the mid-80s before scattered storms initiate along and ahead of the seabreeze. Some brief downpours will be possible, but not expecting a repeat of what we saw this past weekend, either.
High pressure moving offshore will help send winds a little more southerly for the rest of the work week, and temperatures will respond with a subtle bump into the mid-80s each afternoon. Expect mostly sunny skies to prevail on Wednesday; lows in the upper 50s warm to about 85° in the afternoon, except a little cooler near the coast where the cooler Atlantic waters will modulate the high temperatures a bit.