The rest of the work week will be much warmer than mid-March normals as high pressure ridges across the area at the surface and aloft. Temperatures on Wednesday will start in the upper 40s, warming to near 80° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies as a weak disturbance ripples across the area, bringing only an uptick in cloud cover and little else given such a dry atmosphere at the surface. Thursday will see us solidly back in the 80s once again with just a cloud or two at times as high pressure will be strongest that day. We’ll start to see cloud cover come back up for Friday as high pressure gets shunted offshore by the next storm system, though it’ll still be a very warm day by mid-March standards as lows bottom out in the mid-50s with highs warming to the low 80s in the afternoon. We should get much of the day in rain-free, though a shower or two will be possible as we get into the late afternoon and evening hours.

After one more somewhat chilly night — expect low 40s across much of the metro, with mid-to-upper 30s possible further inland — we start a warming trend that’ll get us into the 80s by the end of the week. Tuesday looks rather delightful: expect highs to top out in the low 70s away from the locally cooler coastline. Comfortably dry air will be in place with relative humidity bottoming out around 30% in the afternoon, and we’ll keep a solid amount of sunshine throughout the day. Winds will start to swing more southwesterly in the afternoon and kick up to around 5-10 MPH. Not bad!

Unseasonable warmth continues for one more day before it is blunted by a sharp cold front that will bring a few late showers Wednesday followed by much cooler weather on Thursday.

First, though, we start Wednesday with low temperatures approaching 60°, warming to the upper 70s to maybe even 80° in the afternoon ahead of the aforementioned front. It’ll be breezy, too, as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the front. We should stay rain-free through the daylight hours; from there, a thin line of showers, which has been depicted on models for the past several days, should move by and produce a little rain, but nothing too impactful.

The impacts from the front will come in the form of a sharp cooldown for Leap Day. We start Thursday in the mid-40s, only warming to the low 60s in the afternoon with more clouds than not and breezy northeasterly winds. Winds will slacken a little bit Thursday night into early Friday, though low pressure developing offshore as high pressure wedges southwestward into the area should help to tighten the gradient a bit more as we go through Friday. Shower chances increase throughout the day Friday as moisture overruns the wedge and the aforementioned low pressure develops, with rain chances peaking Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures are currently forecast in the mid-60s, but downward revisions to that forecast certainly seem possible as we learn more about the strength of the wedge.

We turn even warmer on Tuesday as high pressure moves further offshore and more warmer air is drawn northward. Temperatures start several degrees above normal, generally in the low 50s (and even warmer closer to the coast). From there, we’ll head well into the mid-70s in the afternoon despite an uptick in cloud cover compared to Monday as a disturbance moves by to the north. We’ll stay out of the rain, though. Winds will run a little on the breezy side as well, but nothing too crazy.

We have a couple more quiet days of weather ahead before showers associated with a cold front affect the area Friday. Wednesday will be another bright and sunny day with temperatures a few clicks below normal. We start the day in the mid-30s and warm to the low 60s as high pressure moves overhead.

From there, a warming trend develops ahead of the aforementioned Friday front. Thursday will start about 5° warmer as lows bottom out around 40°, while winds coming back out of the south help drive highs to the mid-to-upper 60s in the afternoon. Cloud cover will be increasing as the front draws closer throughout the day Thursday, but rain will hold off until at least Friday morning. Showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible during the day, but severe weather isn’t expected. Friday will be a spring-like day with lows in the low 50s yielding to highs around 70° in the afternoon, tempered by shower activity.

The front clears the area late Friday, and we will have a quiet weekend of weather with temperatures generally around late February normals (mid-60s highs) and lots of sunshine.

We have a chilly night ahead as clearing skies and light winds allow for good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow morning lows on Tuesday to reach freezing for the first time since January 22, when we started the day at a frigid 23°. It won’t be quite as cold — freezing temperatures in the metro would be relatively short-lived — but with some light wind in the morning, it’ll feel more like the upper 20s as we get back to regular order after Washington’s Birthday. There will be plenty of sunshine, though, and that’ll help counteract some cooler air continuing to filter into the area, allowing highs to top out in the low 60s once again.

We’ve got quiet weather for the rest of the work week as high pressure remains in control through Friday. Wednesday will bring another round of nearly uninterrupted sunshine, but will also represent the coldest start to a day for the rest of the week with lows bottoming out in the upper 30s. The sun will help warm us up quite nicely into the mid-60s in the afternoon, a couple clicks above normal for Valentine’s Day.

We turn even warmer on Thursday, albeit with a little bit more in the way of clouds around. Thursday starts in the low 40s and warms to around 70° in the afternoon. A dry cold front will blunt the warming trend on Friday. We start the day in the upper 40s thanks to a little more cloud cover blanketing the area, but highs will be limited to the upper 60s to around 70° under mostly cloudy skies. Still, it should be a nice day.

The next rain chance arrives Saturday as low pressure moving toward the mid-Atlantic states drags a decidedly more wet cold front through the area. High pressure builds in behind it for Sunday, which will briefly cool us off before temperatures rebound to around and slightly above normal values by next Tuesday.

The storm system that’s soaked us on Monday will lift away from the area on Tuesday, clearing us out but also producing a period of gusty winds overnight as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Watch for gusts 30-35 MPH at times, especially on bridges and overpasses, that will affect the area through the morning commute. We should see gusts calm down gradually as the day goes on, thankfully. Clouds will depart and temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-60s after an upper 40s start, yielding a pleasant and seasonable mid-February day.

We’re just about done with the chillier weather for a few days, but first, Wednesday awaits. Lows on Wednesday should flirt with freezing, and continued breezy northerly winds will help it feel like the mid-20s. You’ll want to dress in layers to start, though you should be able to shed a layer or two later in the day as temperatures approach 60° and winds, mercifully, continue to die down.

There is a risk for some minor coastal flooding with the 5:33am high tide, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the forecast of 7.3-7.5′ revised downward given the past two mornings have come in lower than expected. (Watch this be the one time the tide does exactly what the evening blog post says it will.) In any event, any flooding issues should be resolved before the bulk of the commute, but if you are an early commuter and downtown is in your plans, keep an eye out for possible flooded or closed roads.

Showers have ended and cloud cover will diminish overnight, yielding a sunny Tuesday — in stark contrast to the dreariness that was Monday. However, high pressure trying to build in from the west will help to keep the gradient pinched as low pressure remains offshore, keeping north to northeast winds elevated throughout the day. Temperatures will start in the upper 30s, but the wind chill will make it feel more like 30°, so dress appropriately in the morning. We’ll warm only to the mid-to-upper 50s despite the sunshine, too.

The other issue for Tuesday will be the risk for some minor to moderate coastal flooding very early Tuesday morning. High tide around 4:32am is forecast to reach between 7.5-7.7′. While we fell just short of coastal flood criteria Monday morning, it certainly seems more likely that we’ll achieve flood stage on Tuesday. So, if you have early travels that take you downtown, be ready to reroute around flooded roads.