Welcome to the 2024 hurricane season, everybody. From now through November 30, we’ll keep one eye out on the Atlantic basin for whatever spinny mischief may try to get going. The outlook for this year is for an incredibly busy season thanks to flat-out hot water well into the Atlantic and the expectation that we’ll be in La Niña, which tends to relax shear over the Atlantic and turbocharges the environment for tropical cyclone formation as a result. Of course, the outlook only shows how many storms will probably form; it’s not an indicator of how many of those will make landfall, much less where they may do so. It only takes one storm to make a season memorable for all the wrong reasons, too.

The good news to start the season is that tropical cyclone development isn’t expected for the next seven days. We didn’t even have any preseason activity this year for the first time since 2022. However, as we all know, tropical cyclones can spin up on a dime, so it’s important for us all to be prepared. To paraphrase John Philpot Curran, Thomas Jefferson, and others: the price of living in Charleston is six months of tropical vigilance.

Showers will gradually depart as Friday wears on thanks to low pressure moving away from the area. It’ll be an unseasonably warm day, with lows starting near 60° before temperatures top out in the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. We’ll see some breaks in the clouds between showers, so once again, we’re not expecting a totally gray, washed out day. The only other issue will be the potential for some minor salt water flooding around the 10:25am high tide; expect water levels to peak around 7′ or so, putting some salt water once again on Hagood at Fishburne and perhaps on Lockwood. Widespread flooding issues are not expected.

The weather improves just in time for the weekend. Clouds will be decreasing Saturday as deeper moisture departs. We start the day in the mid-50s before warming into the low 70s in the early afternoon. From there, a cold front will get through later in the day; expect a dry passage thanks to much drier air in place. Sunday will be noticeably cooler — expect lows in the mid-40s, some 10° cooler than Saturday morning — before warming to around 70° in the afternoon.

This week’s shower chances will peak Thursday as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast, spawning low pressure off the Florida coast. Expect shower activity to generally be scattered in nature, though, with some dry periods and maybe a few breaks in the clouds possible at times. Warmer air will make inroads as the wedge of high pressure which kept temperatures fairly well suppressed over the past few days begins to give way. Expect highs to top out in the low 70s in the afternoon as a result.

There will again be the risk for some minor coastal flooding with Thursday morning’s high tide, which is expected to peak around 9:33am. Much like Wednesday morning, water levels should reach 7-7.2′ again, which should be enough to put some salt water on the roads but not enough to begin to introduce widespread issues. Still, the vulnerable locations on the west side of the peninsula near The Citadel and Gadsden Green will likely take on salt water once again during the morning. Be ready to reroute around flooded roads.

Showers re-enter the weather picture for the second half of the work week, though we’ll warm up a little in the process. Expect overcast on Wednesday before scattered showers commence in the afternoon. It doesn’t look like it’ll be a terribly heavy rain, but it could be enough to make the roads a little slick, so be careful when commuting. Temperatures start in the low 50s and rise to about the mid-60s in the afternoon as the cool wedge of high pressure hangs on for one more day.

The wedge starts to weaken Thursday, and despite overcast with periods of showers continuing, temperatures will run a little warmer. Expect mid-50s to start with low 70s in the afternoon. A few peeks of sun will be possible Friday, though scattered showers are expected to continue. Temperatures will run even warmer Friday, with lows around 60° and highs in the low-to-mid-70s.

Minor coastal flooding will continue to be possible with the morning high tides heading into the weekend. Water levels will generally peak around 7-7.1′ or so each day, which is enough to put some salt water on vulnerable roads in downtown Charleston. The highest tide capable of producing flooding on Wednesday is predicted around 8:47am, Thursday a little after 9:30am, and Friday around 10:30am. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Another seasonably cool fall day awaits for Tuesday as we start to see an uptick in cloud cover portending more unsettled weather beginning later Wednesday into the rest of the work week. Temperatures start in the mid-40s before heading to the mid-60s in the afternoon, a couple clicks below normal but certainly very seasonally-appropriate. We’ll see ample sunshine, too, but as mentioned, cloud cover will begin to head up as we get into the evening.

High tide a little after 8am will be capable of producing some minor coastal flooding, with water levels generally approaching 7′ or so. It’ll be enough to put salt water on the most vulnerable roads — think around Hagood and Fishburne — but won’t cause widespread problems. Still, be ready to reroute around salt water-covered roads Tuesday morning.

After a dreary weekend, some sun begins to peek back out for Monday, and this will help temperatures get closer to — but still a touch below — mid-November norms. Expect highs in the mid-to-upper 60s Monday through Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the low 70s starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend, with a slight cooldown for Sunday in the wake of a weak cold front.

Clouds will steadily increase through the first part of the work week as a reasonably vigorous disturbance ejects out of the southern Plains, with surface low pressure moving southeast from the Gulf Coast toward the Florida peninsula, dragging an inverted trough to its north that will help be a forcing mechanism for some shower activity here at home. There’s a slight chance of showers as soon as Wednesday, with rain chances peaking Thursday before gradually tapering Friday and perhaps into Saturday depending on the timing of the trough’s exit and the aforementioned front crossing the area. Most of Saturday should be rather nice, and Sunday will offer even more in the way of sunshine.

The warming trend that began this past weekend continues for much of the upcoming week, but a front will bring along some cooler air — and maybe a few showers — as we head into the weekend.

Legitimate sweater weather arrives Wednesday as the coldest air of the season thus far moves into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s but don’t expect temperatures to climb too much beyond the mid-50s despite lots of sunshine. In fact, we may at least tie a different kind of record high on Wednesday — the record low maximum temperature for November 1, which was also 55° last set in 2014.

Thursday looks to get off to the coldest start since early March, and a continued north to northeasterly breeze will drive the wind chill down to around or even below freezing. Dress accordingly in the morning! From there, highs will run a few degrees warmer than they did on Wednesday, but that’s not saying much as we’ll still see temperatures struggle to reach 60° despite unencumbered insolation. The record low maximum of 58° on Thursday is probably safe, but it’ll be close.

The airmass starts to moderate on Friday, though, as warmer air begins to work back into the area. We start Friday in the low 40s before warming to the upper 60s to around 70° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into the weekend, too, as we head back to the 70s each afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

The week ahead will feature the strongest cold snap of the season thus far sandwiched between a warm start and a warm finish. It’s a classic “shorts then sweaters” week of fall weather in the Lowcountry as a strong front moves by late on Halloween.

Rinse and repeat: More quiet and warm weather is on tap for Thursday (and beyond!) High pressure remains in control, and that’ll keep things rain-free and rather warm for late October. We start the day in the low 60s (for reference, the normal low for October 26 is 54°) and warm to around 80° in the afternoon. Much like Wednesday, we’ll see a few clouds amongst otherwise blue skies.

The only fly in the ointment will be the potential for some minor coastal flooding with the Thursday evening high tide. Water levels should peak between 7-7.2′ in the harbor, and this’ll cause some salt water to spill onto the typical trouble spots roughly an hour or two on either side of the 6:49 PM high tide. We’ll probably land a Coastal Flood Advisory during Thursday evening’s commute, so be ready to route around a little salt water especially around the Citadel and MUSC.