Tropical update: Another depression looking likely near the Bahamas

/ September 12, 2019 at 9:29 AM

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of disturbed weather affecting the Bahamas for potential tropical cyclone development. This wave has been watched closely for the last few days, and probabilities for development have been rising. It now appears likely that we will see a tropical depression form in the next couple days. If it becomes named, it would be named Humberto.

Beware of Scary Model Runs

Seemingly on cue, there are no shortage of scary model runs floating around, including one (yes, that Euro run everyone is talking about) that develops the storm into a hurricane off the east coast of Florida over the weekend. We will need to see a lot more run-to-run consistency as well as agreement in the guidance members before there is any confidence in any one solution; the Euro just now picked up on this with the overnight run. We will see what it has to say today as more observations are taken. A Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled into the storm this afternoon, according to NHC, and that should help get some better data into the models so that they can initialize better.

Often time, with these disorganized waves, the models have a really, really tough time initializing them, which can taint the subsequent solution. Dorian is an excellent example of this; the models consistently took the storm over Hispaniola, keeping it much weaker, before an unforecasted reformation of the center to the north. (We know what happened next.)

I know anxieties are running quite high in the wake of Dorian (and rightfully so). I urge you to monitor official forecasts for your decision-making. There is such a wide spread of possibilities ranging from an open wave moving into the Gulf to a hurricane recurving well off the coast. Model runs show us a series of possible solutions, which are then synthesized into a forecast of what is most likely to happen. Stick with those end-products, rather than the raw materials.

What to do today

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