Tag: tropical update

Breezy Election Day ahead of Nicole later this week

/ November 7, 2022 at 8:29 PM

Election Day will feature rain-free conditions, plenty of sunshine, and much cooler temperatures as high pressure to the north wedges into the area. This will definitely feel a lot different than the mugginess we’ve had for the past week-plus. You’ll want to keep a jacket around, too, as winds become gusty as the pressure gradient between the high building in from the north and Subtropical Storm Nicole to the south intensifies. Watch for gusts upwards of 25 MPH away from the coast, with gusts 30-35 MPH possible at the beaches.

The last total lunar eclipse of 2023 — and last one visible from the US until 2025 — will peak tomorrow morning just before 6am. The moon will be getting lower on the horizon in the western sky, but cloud cover should be sparse for eclipse viewing.

The full moon will also be a contributor to elevated water levels in Charleston Harbor with the 7:31 AM high tide, which is expected to peak around 7.6′, producing minor to moderate coastal flooding. This may have some impacts on the morning commute for folks traveling around downtown Charleston. Be ready to use alternate routes in case you encounter flooded or closed roads.

Mariners should take note that a Tropical Storm Warning has been hoisted for the coastal waters (not the harbor, yet) with very rough marine conditions expected to develop due to the aforementioned pressure gradient. There are no land-based tropical headlines as of this writing.

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More unseasonable warmth for Sunday

/ November 5, 2022 at 7:01 PM

We’ve got another unseasonably warm day on tap for Sunday as an anomalously strong ridge of high pressure aloft continues to extend into the Carolinas. High clouds will favor prominently well ahead of a cold front to our west, but that won’t act as much of a governor on temperatures with low 80s still expected in the afternoon. Indeed, onshore flow is likely going to be the only thing keeping us from approaching the record high of 87° set in 2003.

The morning warmth is almost more remarkable: lows in the upper 60s are forecast, which is getting close to 20° above normal for this point in the year. We should fall shy of the record high minimum temperature of 71° set in 2003, but it does look like we’ll give the record a good run for the money.

A stray shower or two can’t be totally ruled out, but we’ll stay sandwiched between the front to the west and better instability and convergence over the waters and should stay dry as a result.

Finally, minor coastal flooding will be possible with the 6:05 AM high tide as we approach a full moon on Tuesday. Water levels approaching 7′ in the harbor could put some salt water on roads around Gadsden Creek once again — think Fishburne and Hagood — as well as spots along Lockwood (both Drive and Boulevard).

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Friday & the weekend: Great weather ahead

/ October 13, 2022 at 9:08 PM

No weather worries as we head into Friday and the weekend as comfortable temperatures take hold behind a cold front coming through overnight.

Friday looks outstanding. Lows in the mid-50s will rebound to the mid-to-upper 70s under full sunshine. Dewpoints below 50° (away from the coast, anyway) will keep things quite comfortable. Winds behind the front will be generally light, generally around 5 MPH from the north. Friday could be one of those rare Severely Nice Weather Alert Days around here, that’s for sure.

Saturday could also qualify as a Severely Nice Weather Alert Day. We’ll start a little cooler — low 50s will be common away from the warmer coastline — and head into the upper 70s under continued uninterrupted sunshine. Winds will be quite light, generally out of the east.

We begin to turn a touch warmer on Sunday as winds go southwesterly ahead of our next front. (More on that in a minute.) Temperatures will run in the low 80s with a few clouds in the afternoon. Sunday’s weather remains excellent, though, and will be a little more palatable to those who like it a little warmer. Something for everyone this weekend!

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Thursday: Showers and storms tapering ahead of a cold front

/ October 12, 2022 at 10:09 PM

Overnight showers and thunderstorms will begin to taper off as we head toward daybreak Thursday. We may deal with some slick roads in the morning, though, so be ready for that possibility for your commute. The good news: We’re done with the recent round of tidal flooding induced by the full moon and onshore winds, so no concerns there.

The cold front will be moving through the state throughout the day and won’t clear the area until after sunset Thursday. Ahead of the front, a few showers and thunderstorms could redevelop as temperatures recover into the low 80s in the afternoon. Drier air punching into the area will modulate that threat somewhat, but don’t be surprised to see a shower or storm in your neck of the woods in the afternoon.

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Rest of the work week: Showers and a few thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday sets up a nice Friday

/ October 11, 2022 at 9:06 PM

The weather will take a turn more toward unsettled starting Wednesday afternoon as some upper-level energy well out ahead of a cold front helps to induce some showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Wednesday will start fairly mild with lows in the mid-60s thanks to persistent cloud cover. Winds will stay onshore, but despite this, we should still top out solidly in the upper 70s in the afternoon ahead of thunderstorms. It certainly seems that we may get a majority of the day in rain-free, with rain chances starting to head up around commute time.

The greatest risk for showers and thunderstorms looks to be after sunset through early Thursday morning. It’s likely we’ll get a good bit of Thursday morning in rain-free, allowing highs to top out near 80° in the early afternoon. Then, it’s possible that some showers may redevelop ahead of the cold front itself as its timing should coincide with peak heating. The front gets through Thursday evening, and by Friday, we’re starting out quite a bit cooler — upper 50s as opposed to mid-to-upper-60s — with highs topping out in the mid-70s under quite a bit of sunshine. This will set up a beautiful weekend of weather with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, though perhaps not quite as cool as mentioned yesterday. Still, though, mid-to-upper 70s remain below normal for highs for this point in October.

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Tuesday: Mostly cloudy but mostly quiet; front arrives Wednesday-Thursday

/ October 10, 2022 at 9:47 PM

Not much weather to write home about for Tuesday as we get one more mostly dry day in ahead of a cold front which should bring the most substantial rain since Ian to the area for later Wednesday into Thursday. Cloud cover blanketing the area will help keep lows elevated to around 60° to start the day. Breezy onshore winds and continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures capped in the mid-70s. Much as we saw today, there is a small chance of a shower or two in the afternoon, but these won’t be horribly disruptive and should be short-lived if they do end up firing.

Another round of minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible a couple hours around the predicted 9:40am high tide. Be ready to use alternate routes in case of flooded or closed roads in downtown Charleston.

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The week ahead: First significant rain since Ian possible Thursday

/ October 9, 2022 at 11:57 PM

On balance, the week ahead will be primarily quiet weather-wise, with the exception of Thursday as a cold front presses through the area, bringing along some showers and thunderstorms. Highs through Thursday will remain a little below normal, generally running in the mid-to-upper 70s. Conversely, cloud cover and increased moisture will keep lows at or a little above normal through Thursday morning, with lows in the mid-60s expected Wednesday and Thursday right ahead of the front.

The weather on Thursday could bear watching for a few stronger storms depending on how much instability can develop. We’ll have good wind shear in place, but the instability — as is often the case as we head into the cool season — is going to be the main question mark. More likely, though, Thursday will represent the first significant rain for the area since Hurricane Ian, though amounts certainly won’t approach Ian-like numbers.

Once the front is through, we will see cloud cover decrease and temperatures once again head well below normal for Friday and the weekend, which is looking pretty good. Highs through this period will run in the low 70s, while lows will bottom out in the upper 50s Friday and the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, several degrees below normal for this point in the year.

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Friday & the weekend: Nice weather persists, but watch for tidal flooding

/ October 6, 2022 at 10:45 PM

We stay seasonably warm for Friday & the weekend, even with a cold front swinging through later Saturday. Friday’s going to be the warmest day of the set with the most unencumbered sunshine and some compressional heating ahead of the cold front helping to drive highs to around the low to mid-80s. A few more clouds will mark the approach and passage of the front Saturday, but no rain is expected; expect temperatures back in the low 80s ahead of the front Saturday afternoon. Winds go northeasterly on Sunday and will help to cool things down a touch. Expect highs to run in the upper 70s, generally a few clicks below early-to-mid-October normals, but not quite the chill we saw in the immediate wake of Ian last week.

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Thursday: Back to the 80s

/ October 5, 2022 at 9:55 PM

Thursday will be another nice weather day across the area with a seasonable chill to start and comfortable warmth to finish. Lows will once again start in the low-to-mid-50s away from the warmer coastline, but plentiful and virtually unobscured sunshine combined with winds generally out of the southwest will help temperatures reach the low 80s in the afternoon, right on the nose for early-October climatology. Should be a nice day for getting out and about!

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Rest of the work week: Warming up, some tidal flooding

/ October 4, 2022 at 9:44 PM

We’ve got another chilly start coming up on Wednesday morning as clear skies and light winds allow for good radiational cooling conditions. We should see temperatures take a dip back into the upper 40s by daybreak (away from the barrier islands and downtown, anyway). From there, a warming trend will commence as a pesky trough associated with the remnants of Ian (yes, really) finally begins to lift away from the area. High pressure will continue to build in from the west, and the resulting downslope flow will begin to help warm temperatures in earnest. Wednesday’s high will top out in the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. The warming trend continues into Thursday and Friday, with lows bottoming out in the mid-50s and highs reaching around 80-81° each afternoon ahead of a cold front which will swing through Saturday, sending temperatures well back below normal for this point in October by Sunday and the following week. No rainfall is expected; indeed, quite the contrary as mostly sunny skies will continue to dominate.

The only weather hazard of note will be the potential for coastal flooding with the afternoon high tides particularly Thursday and again on Friday (and likely through the weekend) as the moon turns full. Southwesterly winds will keep any coastal flooding to a dull roar Wednesday and Thursday, but we may see water levels creep well into minor flood stage, perhaps approaching moderate flood Friday evening. As the front gets through on Saturday, winds turn northeasterly, which is a very favorable wind direction for coastal flooding, so we’ll need to continue to monitor evening high tides through the weekend for additional rounds of coastal flooding.

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