Low pressure to bring more rain to the Lowcountry this week

/ July 5, 2020 at 10:58 PM

We’ve got a soggy, stormy start to the week in store as a low pressure system moves through the Gulf Coast states and strafes our coastline. We’re already starting to see some shower activity from this storm system this evening, and more is expected through at least Wednesday night, if not beyond.

More precipitation for a water-loaded year

The precipitation guidance from the Weather Prediction Center, if it verifies, indicates that we’re going to add another 2-3″ of rain (with locally heavier amounts, to be sure) on top of the roughly 4″ surplus we are already running for the year. We will certainly want to keep an eye on the possibility of flooding in low-lying areas, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday.

One consequence of this rain, though, is that we are going to get a break from the 90s that we’ve had over the past week. Temperatures look to top out in the rain-cooled mid-80s, with lower 80s probable during showers and thunderstorms. We will not escape the humidity, though — there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture available to wring out.

Could this low become tropical?

There is a chance that this low pressure could become tropical in nature as it straddles the Carolina coastline later this week. Regardless of tropical development, impacts should remain the same: periods of heavy rainfall especially through Wednesday (and perhaps beyond, though models are in quite a disagreement about how things evolve).

If the storm does develop and get a name, it would be named Fay.

Edouard becomes the earliest fifth named storm on record in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Five was upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard this evening. It is not long for this world, nor will it be any risk to our interests, but it is notable in one aspect: It is the earliest ‘E’ storm on record in the Atlantic, beating out Emily’s naming on July 12, 2005, as noted above by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, hurricane researcher and outlook forecaster at Colorado State University. As mentioned earlier, it is headed away from the US and probably will not even have tropical characteristics by the end of tomorrow.

It’s worth noting, too, that while we’re racking up the names at a record pace so far, the storms themselves have been nothing to write home about. Meteorologist Sam Lillo does a nice job of illustrating this using Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), an aggregate measurement of a hurricane season’s activity by how strong and long-lasting storms were:

While the number of named storms is certainly enough to catch your eye, it’s the ACE that will ultimately be used to measure this season’s intensity.

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