Aside from some showers on Wednesday as a cold front moves through, this week looks pretty good weather-wise, offering up more in the way of sunshine than we’ve seen in the past couple weeks.

If you weren’t a huge fan of the winter-like chill that shaped the past week’s weather, here comes a somewhat more seasonable feel to the air for Thanksgiving week. (We’ll also have some showers and some tidal flooding to come along for the ride.)

Well, the 80s are over (for at least a while, anyway). A cold front that came through Sunday morning ensured that our high of 68° would be set…at 1am. It was a somewhat chilly afternoon, and we have more of the same in store for the week ahead as well-below normal temperatures become the rule heading into the weekend before Thanksgiving.

An unsettled week lies ahead, particularly for those of us near the coast, as a possible tropical or hybrid cyclone develops and moves toward Florida around mid-week before recurving with a cold front later in the week. After that front gets through, below-normal temperatures will arrive by Sunday.

The week ahead will look a lot different from this past weekend as we cast away the gray in favor of more sunshine and warmer-than-normal temperatures to kick off November.

Warm weather fans, this will be a little better week for you as temperatures will run closer to, if not slightly above, normal at times.

Temperatures are the main weather story this week as the first legitimate sweater weather of the autumn arrives Tuesday in the wake of a strong cold front. Highs on Monday will be in the low 80s for the last time for the foreseeable future; once the front is by, we begin a stretch of well-below normal temperatures. Highs top out only in the 60s for Tuesday through Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the coldest day since early April, with lows bottoming out around 40° and highs only topping out in the low 60s despite full, unfettered sunshine. From there, temperatures will moderate, with highs returning to the 70s by Friday into the weekend.

So far, there is a risk for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening as the front moves by. A stronger storm or two can’t be completely counted out given good wind shear and decent thermodynamics, but some dry air should limit coverage. If stronger storms do form, gusty winds and maybe some hail are the main threats. After that, we look to remain rain-free for much of the rest of the week.

The forecast for the weekend is complicated by some signals that a coastal low could develop and move northward, bringing us some unsettled weather. There’s a lot of model disagreement on where the low forms, if it even forms at all. For now, the NWS forecast is for a reasonably warm, rain-free weekend, but keep an eye on updates as more guidance comes in throughout the week as revisions are possible.

On balance, the week ahead will be primarily quiet weather-wise, with the exception of Thursday as a cold front presses through the area, bringing along some showers and thunderstorms. Highs through Thursday will remain a little below normal, generally running in the mid-to-upper 70s. Conversely, cloud cover and increased moisture will keep lows at or a little above normal through Thursday morning, with lows in the mid-60s expected Wednesday and Thursday right ahead of the front.

The weather on Thursday could bear watching for a few stronger storms depending on how much instability can develop. We’ll have good wind shear in place, but the instability — as is often the case as we head into the cool season — is going to be the main question mark. More likely, though, Thursday will represent the first significant rain for the area since Hurricane Ian, though amounts certainly won’t approach Ian-like numbers.

Once the front is through, we will see cloud cover decrease and temperatures once again head well below normal for Friday and the weekend, which is looking pretty good. Highs through this period will run in the low 70s, while lows will bottom out in the upper 50s Friday and the low 50s Saturday and Sunday, several degrees below normal for this point in the year.

The week ahead will be punctuated by rough weather conditions courtesy of what is currently Tropical Storm Ian, which is finally beginning to intensify as I write this. It is expected to intensify into a major hurricane by as early as Tuesday morning, head over the western tip of Cuba, and then into the Gulf of Mexico where it moves up peninsular Florida’s Gulf Coast on the way to a landfall late Thursday/early Friday.

The week starts out innocuously enough; highs will head toward 90° on Monday ahead of a cold front which will push southeastward across the area throughout the day with maybe a shower, but the vast majority of us stay dry. Said front will knock Tuesday’s highs back to the low 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies as high pressure wedges southward into the area. The front that got through Monday will then stall out and begin to retreat northwestward as a warm front on Wednesday as Ian approaches Florida. This could help spread a little shower activity in our direction, but otherwise expect mostly cloudy skies and significantly cooler temperatures — highs topping out only in the mid-70s underneath increasingly breezy northeasterly flow as the gradient between Ian to the south and high pressure centered to our north begins to tighten.

It’ll be a tale of two seasons this week — both figuratively and literally — as we reach the autumnal equinox on Thursday to usher in astronomical Fall. Summer’s gonna have one final parting shot, though, as a ridge expands across much of the southern US during the middle of the week.

We’ll still be dealing with a pesky coastal trough on Monday, which will toss some occasional showers and maybe a thunderstorm ashore. Temperatures will head up to the mid-80s away from the immediate coast; humidity will make it feel more like the low 90s. As the aforementioned ridge of high pressure builds in, though, the coastal trough will move away from the area, setting us up for a warm stretch mid-week. Tuesday’s highs will approach 90° as northerly to northwesterly flow aloft keeps cloud cover to a minimum. We get even hotter for Wednesday, with highs in the low 90s expected. Thursday’s going to be the hottest day of the set as compressional heating ahead of a cold front pushes temperatures close to the mid-90s — not quite meteorological conduct becoming of the first day of fall. Dry air in the area will limit cloud cover, much less any thunderstorm activity, so don’t count on that for any relief.

What we can count on, though, is the cold front to actually bring in a decent airmass change. Cooler and drier air will punch into the area overnight Thursday into Friday as the cold front gets through. We’ll start Friday on the warm side, but cool advection will kick in and keep temperatures from getting much warmer than the low 80s in the afternoon. The weekend is looking quite excellent, with a northeasterly breeze keeping temperatures a bit below normal for this point in the year and cloud cover to a minimum. We’ve just gotta get through this hot stretch first.