We begin meteorological spring with one more day in the 70s and increasing rain chances ahead of a cold front. The front will push southward across the area late Monday, leaving us significantly cooler for Tuesday and beyond. (I hope you’ve not put your sweaters away yet!)
The cold front will stall somewhere near the Gulf Coast, and low pressure will spin up and traverse it. Rain chances will come up ahead of this low pressure system later Tuesday, with widespread showers expected on Wednesday. Once low pressure departs, we should get a couple dry days in before a coastal trough possibly generates a few showers in the area on Saturday afternoon. High pressure is projected to usher this trough away from the area for Sunday.
I suspect the temperature shift back to below normal is going to be a bit of a jolt, especially after closing February with a weekend featuring highs in the 80s each day. Normal highs for the first week of March are around 66-67°, and it just doesn’t look like we’re going to get there this week.
Rain chances will make a brief return to start the week, but without the ridiculous tap of moisture that characterized the last few rainstorms. The recent deluge has led to river flooding in spots on the Edisto as well as on the Santee at Jamestown, with homes being threatened in Ridgeville. Overall, though, expect a quieter week of weather with warmer temperatures than we’ve been used to.
As mentioned before, Monday starts ahead of a cold front with scattered showers coming onshore for a fair bit of the day. However, the best chance of showers will be in the afternoon and evening hours as the front passes. Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s and could even crack 70° in a few spots.
Tuesday through Thursday look really nice, with ample sunshine and progressively warmer temperatures, again potentially touching 70° on Thursday.
Our next rain chance arrives Friday afternoon in the wake of another front. Isolated showers will be possible each afternoon through the weekend, but right now we should not see any washouts. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal.
This is the last week of meteorological winter; meteorological spring begins on March 1st. (Meteorologists and climatologists use March 1 to mark the start of spring as it is a consistent point for record-keeping. The vernal equinox, which ushers in the more traditionally accepted definition of spring, is on March 20.)
It’s been quite a soggy weekend, with rain totals in many spots exceeding 1″ just today as seemingly relentless moisture pushed atop a cold air damming wedge, keeping the weather wet and chilly as temperatures have barely left the low 40s over the past two days.
Well, the good news is that things are changing, and that we will even see the sun at times this week! (The weekend looks good, too!) But, there will be more unsettled weather before it’s all said and done.
Enjoy the rain-free conditions on Monday, because we’re back to wet weather at times through perhaps Sunday morning. Temperatures will at least run at or a little above normal for much of the week with zonal flow and perhaps even a little ridging aloft, keeping a well-advertised intrusion of Arctic air for much of the northern continental United States at bay for at least the next several days.
The current forecast shows rain chances diminishing Saturday and Sunday in the wake of a cold front, with below-normal temperatures for Valentine’s Day. It’s worth noting that there is a fair bit of model spread as we get into the weekend, so be keeping an eye on forecast updates as some details will need to be fine-tuned.
Despite some of the apps’ best attempts this past Friday, winter weather is not indicated in the forecast, and there is decreasing support for this scenario unfolding from the ensemble of global model runs as the southern extent of a potent Arctic air intrusion into the continental United States appears to be retreating significantly. There has been a noted bias in the models when they get out to the longer range to try to bring Arctic air much further south than it ultimately ends up, and so far, this appears to be one of those times. If things change and it looks legit, I and the rest of the #chswx enterprise will be sure to let you know! 🙂
We will begin February much as we spent about half of January: Chilly, cloudy, with occasional showers in the area. Fortunately, showers will depart for mid-week, as chilly high pressure runs the show through Thursday. Watch for some frosty and freezing temperatures mid-week before a warming trend commences Thursday afternoon. By Friday, we’re scraping 70° again as we return to the warm sector ahead of our next storm system, with showers becoming possible late in the day. Timing of our next front is somewhat suspect, so you’ll want to keep an eye on the forecasts for the weekend in anticipation of adjustments to rain chances and temperatures.
The final week of January 2021 (already!) will start off fairly warm before returning to below-normal temperatures to head into the weekend. Forecasted highs in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday would be the first 70+ temperatures since January 1-2. This abnormal warmth will be swept away with a soggy storm system come Tuesday evening into Wednesday, though, bringing in cooler and drier conditions to close out the week. Then, the progressive pattern ushers in another storm system to possibly bring some rain and warmer temperatures back to the area as early as Sunday.
The week ahead will be characterized with a few showers to start before warming up and clearing out in the second half. Clouds will increase overnight into Monday, with showers potentially developing over the ocean and moving inland starting in the afternoon. Shower chances will continue into Tuesday as a wave of low pressure affects the area. Once the disturbance clears the area, we’ve got a few nice days to close out the work week, with temperatures topping out in the low 60s each afternoon. A cold front will swing through early Saturday that may bring a shower or two, but other than that, we’ll cool back to around or a little below normal for the weekend.
The first work week of 2021 will generally arrive with little weather fanfare, with temperatures at or slightly above early January normals for much of the week. Rain chances tick up Thursday into Friday as a storm system moves through, but quiet weather returns for the weekend.
2020 looks to hand off to 2021 in the fashion we would expect from this year — a bit on the warm and stormy side — as a cold front approaches the area from the west.
The last few days of the year will get progressively warmer, with 70s back in the picture for New Year’s Eve. Rain chances also return beginning Wednesday, with a shower or two possible as a coastal trough moves inland in response to high pressure to the northeast breaking down and moving out. Rain chances improve for Thursday along with a noticeable jump in temperatures (70s!) as warm and moist air overspreads the area ahead of our next storm system.
Overall, if you’ve got things to do outdoors, Tuesday’s your best day to for-sure avoid rainfall. As for New Year’s Eve, I’m not expecting a washout for fireworks displays as of now, but the devil is in the details. Stay tuned.