I’m back…just in time for more rain. Showers and thunderstorms figure prominently in the forecast this week, especially in the afternoons and evenings, as the pattern generally keeps a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. This keeps us within southwest flow aloft, which keeps disturbances rippling through the area at times and the flow of moisture open from the Gulf. This, in turn, translates to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening as daytime heating kicks in and the sea breeze makes its inland trek.
After reaching 99° at the airport on Sunday — the warmest it’s been since May 29, 2019, when it was 101° in the midst of the Memorial Day heat wave — air temperatures make another run for the upper 90s on Monday after another steamy start in the upper 70s to low 80s as a deep-layer ridge stays in place. Given the moisture in place, heat indices should once again reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (108°) in many spots, especially in the Highway 17 corridor. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the seabreeze, but with the ridge in place, coverage will be scattered at best. Much like Sunday, we can’t rule out a stronger storm where one does fire if it can realize the considerable instability that will be available to it. Additionally, storm motions should again be fairly slow, and with a juicy atmosphere, some localized flooding will be possible if a storm does fire and hang out for a bit.
A surface trough and the seabreeze keeps shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast each afternoon for much of the upcoming week. We’ll stay on the steamy side, though, with temperatures generally in the low to mid-90s each afternoon and lows in the upper 70s inland to low 80s near the coast, where additional record high minimum temperature records could be broken this week.
We will get the first week of July off to a very soggy start as a front stalls in the area, bringing a risk for numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening (more on that shortly). While rain chances back off a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday as the front meanders and weakens, we will get at least a brief break from the advisory-level heat that punctuated the end of June. Rain will keep highs to the upper 80s on Monday, while onshore flow Tuesday helps to keep highs tamped down to the mid-80s. Warming begins again Wednesday, though, with upper 80s yielding to mid-90s on the Fourth of July. We’re in the upper 90s for Friday and the weekend with standard afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances expected.
Charleston summer is in full swing as we get into the last week of June as hot and muggy conditions will be prevalent for the foreseeable future.
Monday will be particularly warm with westerly winds ahead of a front that’ll be sagging southward throughout the day. This front along with the pinned seabreeze should help ignite some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but not everyone’s going to get heat relief. We start the day in the mid-to-upper 70s, warming to the upper 90s in the afternoon with heat indices around and even a little above 105° expected. (Note: 105° used to be heat advisory criteria, but that has changed this year — 108° heat index or higher for two hours is the new heat advisory criteria.)
The front hangs around Tuesday before retreating northward Wednesday. This should generally lead to standard afternoon thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze each day. Highs continue in the mid-90s after mid-70s starts both days, with heat indices once again potentially approaching 105°. Rain chances tick up Thursday and Friday as a disturbance moves across the area, while ridging builds aloft for the weekend and starts to reduce afternoon storm chances. Highs continue in the low to mid-90s each afternoon after mid-70s starts, with heat indices flirting with the Heat Advisory criteria especially later in the work week. Be sure you’re taking frequent breaks and hydrating if you’re working outdoors in this swampy weather!
The week ahead will generally feature temperatures around if not even a touch below normal at times through mid-week before warming back up, perhaps into the mid-90s, for the weekend.
We start the week off fairly quietly as a little bit of lower-dewpoint air nudges into the area, generally capping highs in the upper 80s to around 90°. High pressure aloft and at the surface will keep thunderstorm chances very low, so expect to at least get the first couple days of the week in rain-free.
High pressure starts to weaken as we head into Juneteenth, and the standard summertime afternoon thunderstorm chances respond accordingly. Storms could be a little more widespread Thursday as low pressure approaches Florida, enhancing the flow of moisture into our neck of the woods. A warming trend begins Friday as high pressure offshore moves a little further south, turning the resulting flow at the surface more southerly as well and essentially turning the heat pump back on. Low-to-mid-90s temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday, with scattered thunderstorms each afternoon.
After highs topped out in the mid-90s on Sunday, we’ll see temperatures back down a little bit toward normal heading into the upcoming work week as a front crosses through and stalls out nearby, potentially bringing a somewhat unsettled Monday. Showers and thunderstorms could be in the area during the morning hours, but the better chance for rain arrives in the afternoon and evening as more forcing arrives. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, heading to around 90° under a mix of sun and clouds.
The weather turns quiet to start the new work week, and we’ll even enjoy slightly lower temperatures and a little less humidity for at least a couple days, too! Monday looks particularly nice with lows in the mid-60s warming to highs in the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. A warming trend commences thereafter, with highs in the mid-80s Tuesday followed by upper 80s Wednesday. 90s return on Thursday, and we stay around there for Friday and the weekend as well…alas, with a bit more summertime humidity in play, too.
Rain chances are quiet through Thursday as ridging aloft rules the roost. This ridging will give way to a few disturbances starting Friday and lasting into the weekend, which will bring some shower and thunderstorm chances primarily in the afternoons. There’s no washouts anywhere that we can see, though — just be sure to have a secondary indoor plan to go along with your outdoor plans as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.
I hope everyone got to enjoy this fine Mother’s Day weekend, because we are getting back to storms for a good chunk of the upcoming week. We start Monday on a dry note, but shower and storm chances will increase as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast states toward the East Coast. We start Monday in the low 60s, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon with clouds on the increase ahead of shower and thunderstorm chances later in the day.
The upcoming week will be on the warm side as ridging aloft builds in, sending mid-week temperatures well into the 90s and perhaps into record territory.
First, though, we deal with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Temperatures on Monday start once again in the upper 60s to near 70°, warming to the mid-80s as one last upper disturbance makes its way through. We should see thunderstorms fire up around or a little after midday and generally remain scattered in nature. A few heavy downpours will be possible, and a strong storm can never be totally discounted near where boundaries collide — and on the flip side, some of y’all might not see any rain at all. (That time of year!)
