The rest of the work week will feature generally isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of a cold front that will stall in the area for Friday into Saturday, bringing greater coverage of unsettled weather (and possibly a low risk of severe weather on Friday). Thereafter, said front introduces a good bit of uncertainty into the forecast.

A Bermuda high will stay in force for Wednesday into Thursday. This will generally keep onshore flow in place, allowing occasional showers and storms to stream into the area from the Atlantic particularly in the morning hours before the seabreeze focuses additional showers and storms inland during the afternoon. Reasonably good atmospheric moisture is in place, allowing a few showers or storms to perhaps generate some locally heavy rainfall, especially where outflow boundaries collide. Temperatures will generally run in the upper 80s away from the coast.

As we get into Friday, a cold front will approach from the northwest in association with a trough of low pressure aloft. This will focus more numerous showers and thunderstorms particularly as we get into the evening. Model soundings suggest some wind shear sufficient for organizing a strong to severe storm or two, so we’ll want to keep an eye on these details as they evolve. Additionally, the Gulf will be open for business with the trough helping to draw more moisture into the area (precipitable water values exceeding 2″ for the geeks out there), so areas of heavy rainfall will certainly be possible. Ahead of the front, temperatures will still flirt with 90° before showers and storms increase in coverage.

Forecast becomes more uncertain heading into the Fourth

The aforementioned cold front will stall out somewhere nearby on Saturday, and this is where a fair bit of forecast uncertainty begins to come into play. Depending on where the front sets up, we could have a warm and fairly dry Fourth, or we might keep some more humidity, showers, and thunderstorms in the forecast. Today’s global model runs were trending a little drier, but one should never put much faith in a stalling cold front in our neck of the woods in July. My advice right now: Stay tuned to forecast updates as the details flesh out a little more.

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