We’ll start Martin Luther King, Jr. Day out in chilly and breezy fashion as cold air moves into the area in the wake of today’s storm. Lows will bottom out generally in the mid-30s away from the coast, but gusty winds will make temperatures feel closer to the mid-to-upper 20s. A mix of clouds and sun will give way to fewer clouds and more sun by afternoon as high pressure continues to build back into the area. Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will still struggle into the low 50s as the colder airmass takes hold.

Regarding the upcoming weekend’s weather

Once again, there’s scuttlebutt in social media around a few wintry model runs making the rounds. There’s even some signs of wintry precipitation showing up now in some automated weather apps Friday into the weekend. As always, I’ll advise extreme caution with these automated apps, largely driven by weather model input with little human intervention.

The pattern is favorable for additional winter weather threats in the next couple weeks in the Southeast. But with that said, the specifics of any future threat are incredibly murky. Looking ahead toward the weekend, we find that the global models (GFS and ECMWF)…well…could not be much further apart.

The images above are a comparison of the ECMWF (better known as the Euro) and the GFS (American) global model output valid Saturday evening at 7PM. The ECMWF has dry high pressure in place over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the GFS has low pressure skirting the Gulf Coast, with the Carolinas on the cold side of the system to start, wit the model printing out some snow showers in the area. As the National Weather Service put it in their evening forecast discussion, “[…]forecast confidence in this period [long term] of the forecast is as close to zero as it can get.”

Bottom line: We’ll watch it, but let’s not get too excited yet. The most important rule of winter weather in the South, especially here in Charleston, is to manage your expectations carefully.

Stay tuned…

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