After a stubborn high pressure wedge held firm across SC for a good bit of the day, we will warm significantly on Tuesday as low pressure moves across a pesky frontal boundary which is expected to lift north across SC as the day goes on. Highs should top out in the upper 70s in most spots; wouldn’t be surprised to see an 80° reading peek through depending on how much sun can break through cloud cover. Said low pressure will help spur on some scattered showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all day, and rain amounts should generally be light, though a few downpours cannot be ruled out.
Most of us should not be headed out and about unless it is for essential trips for provisions or prescriptions. To the grocery workers, pharmacists, medical professionals, and first responders still heading into the community despite the threat from coronavirus, we salute you all.
After topping out in the mid-70s today, temperatures will really start to crank up on Thursday. If the forecast verifies, it’ll feel more like late May as opposed to mid-March. The record high of 85, last set in 2012, is certainly within reach and will be watched closely. Overall, expect temperatures 10-15° above normal across the area. Rain chances are nil as a lack of triggering mechanisms at the surface and ridging aloft will put the kibosh on any airmass showers that try to form. The only potential weather hazard looks to be some patchy fog in the morning. If you’re headed outdoors for a physically distant walk, be ready to sweat a little!
Of note: The vernal equinox will occur tomorrow night at 11:50 PM. This is a rather early start to astronomical spring as it is, but meteorologically, it’s been spring for a few weeks now. (We’ll give you this one, Phil.)
A warm front will lift north of the area tomorrow, bringing with it another round of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Temperatures will run even warmer — mid-70s appear likely in the afternoon, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Watch for fog in the morning if you have to commute.
Tuesday will bring some scattered showers, primarily in the morning, as a disturbance swings through the area. Said disturbance will help usher out the high pressure wedge that’s been in place for the last day or so, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 70s in the afternoon. We may see some peeks of sun toward the end of the day, but expect copious amounts of cloud cover to add a little gloom to a socially isolated St. Patrick’s Day.
Today’s forecast looks a lot different than the NWS forecast that was published Friday evening. (Pesky, stalled frontal boundaries will do that to you.) We’ll see a warm front lift north of the area, allowing temperatures to surge back into the mid-70s this afternoon. Showers should stay few and far between for a fair bit of the day, but an uptick in shower chances will arrive this evening as a disturbance aloft moves through the Carolinas, helping to bring the front back to the south of our area as a cold front. Plan for rain gear late this afternoon into this evening if you must be out and about, but please be sure to limit any unnecessary travel — not necessarily because of weather, but because we all need to do our part in helping to limit spread of the novel coronavirus so we can #FlattenTheCurve and give our health workers a fighting chance.
Temperatures head back into the 80s tomorrow under partly cloudy skies. We may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm kick off in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us look to remain dry throughout the day. Best chances for any rainfall look to be closer to I-95 than the Charleston metro area, but we’ll want to see how the mesoscale details sort themselves out as this pattern has a bit of a summer-like feel to it.
While 83° is rather toasty for mid-March — a normal March 13th tops out around 69° — it’s not a record. That dubious honor goes to March 13, 1990, when the high temperature at Charleston International Airport reached 88°.
Well, at least the weather’s going to be decent on Thursday. Partly cloudy skies will allow temperatures to once again approach 80°, and the lack of any triggers for convection makes any rain chance negligible.
While these temperatures are well above normal — a high of 69° and low of 46° mark a more typical March 12th based on 1981-2010 averages — the NWS forecast high of 78° is not a record. It’s not even close, in fact. The record high for March 12 is 89°, set in 1973. Now, if we don’t get cooler than 62°, we’d tie or break the record warmest low temperature for the date, set in 1985. So, while it’s rather warm, it isn’t unprecedented to get even warmer this time of year.
Another warm day is on tap for Wednesday, with highs topping out in the mid-to-upper 70s across the area (away from the locally cooler coastline, anyway). Most of the day looks dry, but some showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two will be possible in the afternoon as an upper disturbance swings on by. Not expecting anything too crazy, but there may be some raindrops near the commute, so that will be worth watching.
The South Carolina Tornado Drill, weather permitting, will take place at 9am Wednesday. The National Weather Service will send a test tornado warning that will cause NOAA Weather Radio to sound a tone as if a real warning were occurring, but this warning will not go out over cell phones or other alerting systems. (I’ve got a tweet queued up for 9am as well.) Use this time to practice your tornado safety plan! If you participate, tag me in a photo on your favorite social media platform and I’ll share it!
Despite more cloud cover on Tuesday, expect temperatures to once again top out in the low-to-mid-70s as southerly surface flow remains in place. There’s a slight chance of a shower or two as disturbances pass to our north, but the vast majority of us get through Tuesday high and dry.
We have a soggy Thursday ahead as a strong upper-level disturbance drives low pressure through the Gulf Coast states along a stalled front. Said disturbance will arrive with copious amounts of moisture to produce heavy rainfall, perhaps on the tune of 1-2″ on top of the 3/4-inch rainfall we’ve already received across much of the area on Wednesday. This may cause some concerns about localized flooding, particularly this afternoon near high tide. (More about that in a sec.) Rain will come to an end across the area Thursday evening as low pressure heads northeast, turning winds to the northwest and drying us out.
Temperatures will remain in the mid-to-upper 50s on Thursday as we look to remain in the cool sector of the storm for the duration of the event. While there could be some wobbles in the position of the aforementioned front, it’s expected to remain south of the area.
