Christmas weekend gets off to a nice start, but will finish on a rainy note as showers are likely on Christmas Day.

At least we get a nice Festivus in on Saturday. No grievances to air here, unless you’re a fan of cooler weather: We start the day in the low 40s and warm to the upper 60s, flirting with 70° under mostly sunny skies. Sunday will cooperate pretty well, too: lows in the mid-40s yield to highs around 70° (and likely warmer in spots) under partly cloudy skies, though clouds will be increasing ahead of our next storm system which begins to affect the area for Christmas Day.

Recent guidance has suggested a slightly earlier arrival time for rain than has been previously advertised. Showers could begin in the area around daybreak, and will become likely heading into mid-morning and beyond. Some of this rain could become heavy at times, though the risk for widespread flooding appears rather low. We will, however, want to keep an eye on the Christmas morning high tide as onshore winds could push water levels at least into the action stage of 6.5′. With that in mind, though, we are not expecting a repeat of last Sunday.

It will at least be a warm rain: we start Christmas in the mid-50s, some 15° above normal for December 25th. Temperatures will warm to the low 70s in the afternoon despite the rain. While it will be warm, we will be in no danger of matching 2015’s warmth, when we set not only a record high (80°) but also set a record high minimum (69°).

Unsettled weather continues into Tuesday and perhaps beyond, but there are some inconsistencies in guidance in the long range that still need to be resolved. Keep this in mind as you prepare for post-Christmas travel, and stay tuned to updates as the forecast becomes a little clearer.

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