While we do have some rain chances in store this week, what we will be lacking (after Monday morning, anyway) is subfreezing cold. It’s been a very chilly start to February so far — in fact, this first week of February (Feb 1-7) ties 1951 for ninth coldest on record at the airport with an average temperature of 42.2°. We will thankfully break the cold snap this week as the upper-air pattern changes a bit, favoring a ridge trying to nudge in from the south that’ll keep the colder air bottled up to the north.

The last vestige of the really cold air will be felt Monday morning as lows fall to the low 30s across the metro (staying above freezing near the coast). Temperatures will then warm to the mid-50s as winds go a little more onshore — still below normal, but not as below normal.

Tuesday looks to be the best weather day this week. High pressure will nudge a bit offshore, switching wind directions out of the south and southwest, helping to contribute to the warmest day we’ve had in a few weeks. Expect lows to bottom out around 40°, warming to 70° in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

Unfortunately, the weather turns more unsettled beginning Wednesday as a cold front approaches the area, bringing some showers in the afternoon through the evening. It’ll be another warmer-than-normal day, with highs peaking in the upper 60s after an abnormally warm start in the low 50s. This front stalls out to our south Thursday into Friday, keeping clouds and showers around with somewhat cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. From here, there’s disagreements in the guidance suite on exactly how the pattern evolves, but the preponderance of the evidence suggests Valentine’s weekend will continue to feature periods of unsettled weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal.

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