A Winter Storm Warning continues through noon Wednesday as winter weather is beginning to affect the area this evening. So far, we’ve seen some freezing drizzle primarily in the US-17 coastal corridor and points east, with trace accretion reported in places like James Island, Mt. Pleasant, and even at my home in West Ashley. Some bursts of sleet have been reported to be mixing in at times, particularly around Johns Island. Ice pellets have also been reported at the airport, and so we officially have a trace of snow so far today in North Charleston (sleet and snow are functionally considered the same accumulation in the historical climate record).

A special evening weather balloon release continued to indicate a pocket of warmer air aloft that is contributing to primarily freezing rain and sleet so far. The atmospheric column should continue to cool, though, and a changeover to all snow is still expected overnight into early Wednesday morning. By the time all is said and done, many spots should have between 3-5″ of snow. Areas closer to the coast may see accumulations impacted if more sleet falls, while others who stay in the snow longer could see upwards of 6″. This is a pretty stark upward revision from previous forecasts, but thus far all we’ve seen this storm do to our west is overperform. We’ll see how things shake out. Regardless of how much falls, we can still expect some tough road conditions tonight into Wednesday morning even after snow ends. The best course of action is to stay put tonight if at all possible, leaving roads open for essential and emergency workers.

The weather story will continue to be the coldest air of the season and an attendant threat of winter weather, especially Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Regardless of what ends up falling at your location, it’ll be quite cold, and you’ll need to put your cold weather plans for your home in place each day through the weekend.

Arctic air will be spilling into the area for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, bringing the first of several cold days to the Lowcountry. This one will at least come with some sunshine, but even despite that, highs only peak in the low 40s after an upper 20s start. Factor in the wind chill and it’ll feel closer to 20° in the morning, and like the 30s for the balance of the day. Layers will be necessary on Monday and for the next several days as the cold airmass takes residence.

Showers will be ending by early Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the area later in the day, the forerunner to a much colder Arctic airmass that will arrive overnight Sunday into Monday, setting up a period of impactful winter weather starting Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures on Sunday will be as warm as they will be for the forecastable future, with highs peaking in the mid-60s early in the afternoon after a start near 50° before falling off post-frontal passage later in the afternoon. We’ll get some peeks of sun as we head through the afternoon and early evening before sunset as much cooler and drier air filters into the area behind the front.

We remain on track to have a relatively quiet but cold day of weather on Monday before winter weather in the form of freezing rain and snow starts to affect the area beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. I’ll have a more in-depth look at this with Sunday evening’s post as we start to get more of the high-resolution data in, but long story short, we’re quite possibly going to see the most impactful winter weather in the area since 2018 this week. Stay tuned!

We have a rainy day on tap for Saturday as a complex storm system sweeps across the eastern half of the country. We’ll start the day in the upper 30s to around 40°, but warm to around 60° in the afternoon as warm, humid air moves in ahead of the storm system’s cold front. We’ll stay in the rain for a fair bit of the day after daybreak, though there will be breaks at times as well.

Showers depart early in the day on Sunday, which will be the warmest day in the forecastable future as highs top out in the mid-60s ahead of the cold front. Said front should swing through by evening, and we’ll start to see a sharp change in the airmass after that as Arctic air spills into the region from the northwest. Lows on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day bottom out in the upper 20s, heading to only the low 40s despite plenty of sunshine.

Friday will offer one more quiet day before an extended unsettled period kicks in starting this weekend, culminating in possible winter weather for the middle of next week.

We start Thursday in the upper 20s to low 30s across the metro, but temperatures will ultimately end up a few degrees warmer than Wednesday under mostly sunny skies. This will be the second to last day of generally quiet weather before an unsettled period begins this weekend and lasts into next week, which will turn very cold and perhaps somewhat interesting winter weather-wise, too.

There’s not much to write home about weather-wise for the rest of the work week as generally quiet conditions continue through Friday before turning more unsettled over the weekend.

We start Wednesday right around freezing as a dry front comes through, which will help hold highs down to the low 50s in the afternoon despite plenty of sunshine. Winds turn a little more westerly on Thursday, and after a subfreezing start, we’ll warm to the mid-to-upper 50s in the afternoon under plenty of sunshine. We’ll keep this going for one more day on Friday, with lows right around the freezing mark and highs in the mid-50s with plenty of sun.

After a dreary Monday the 13th, we’ll see much more sunshine on Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds across the area. Our run of cooler-than-normal temperatures will continue, but it won’t be quite as bad; lows bottom out in the low 30s, just under freezing, and warm to the mid-50s in the afternoon. You’ll still probably need a jacket, but the bitterness of the cold will come down a notch.

Below-normal temperatures will continue for much of the upcoming week before a bit of a reprieve over the weekend (albeit with rain).