Author: Jared Smith

Jared Smith founded @chswx on Twitter in 2008 as an experiment in disseminating weather data through social media. Somehow, it caught on, and he kept doing it.

The week ahead: Mostly quiet; first freeze possible mid-week

/ November 26, 2023 at 5:31 PM

After a very chilly and raw Sunday in which the high temperature didn’t (as of this writing, anyway) reach 50°, temperatures make a brief rebound for Monday in the wake of a front as high pressure builds in. Diminishing cloud cover and northwesterly winds will help temperatures rebound to the low 60s on Monday, which will feel positively wonderful. Temperatures will then drop into the upper 30s for Tuesday morning as the cooler high pressure begins to settle in over the area. Temperatures will only reach the mid-50s on Tuesday despite ample sunshine. Radiational cooling conditions improve tremendously as winds go light and skies go clear Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and this will allow temperatures to get down to freezing for the first time this season in many spots in the metro, particularly inland. Highs will head to the mid-50s once again with full sunshine.

From there, high pressure begins to move away, turning nature’s heat pump back on as winds go more southerly. We’ll get off to another frosty start Thursday morning before warming to the low 60s in the afternoon. Friday will be even warmer, with lows in the mid-40s (closer to normal for this point in the year) and highs in the low 70s in the afternoon. We’ll keep this warmer weather going into the weekend, with lows well above normal for Saturday and Sunday, albeit with some shower chances as mid-level disturbances swing through from time to time.

Sunday’s forecast: Morning coastal flooding, then evening showers

/ November 25, 2023 at 8:19 PM

Sunday will feature more in the way of cloud cover as another disturbance affects the area. High pressure wedging southward will help keep things on the cool side as northeasterly winds continue to blow into the area. We start the day in the mid-40s and may not reach 60° in the afternoon thanks to the cloud cover. We should stay rain-free for the morning through early afternoon; from there, showers may begin to develop and move across the area. The best chance for showers will be in the evening as low pressure to the south makes the closest approach. Rainfall should generally be on the light side, but a few pockets of heavier rain certainly can’t be ruled out. Rain should clear the area by Monday morning as high pressure builds back into the area.

The other weather concern for Sunday will arrive early in the morning in the form of coastal flooding. Favorable northeasterly winds and astronomical effects the upcoming full moon will drive water levels into minor to possibly moderate flood stage around the 6:44am high tide Sunday. Salt water may close some roads as water levels approach 7.4-7.6′. If you have early-morning travel plans around the edges of the downtown peninsula, especially on the west side, prepare to reroute around flooded and closed roads.

Weekend forecast: Cool, with showers returning late Sunday

/ November 24, 2023 at 7:10 PM

We’ll stay chilly over the weekend as high pressure wedges south into the area, keeping north and northeast winds in place throughout. Temperatures Saturday generally start in the mid-40s before warming to just the low 60s in the afternoon under partly cloudy skies, with clouds increasing as we get later in the day as another disturbance starts to draw closer. Increased cloud cover with the wedge hanging on tight will keep temperatures from getting too far above 60° in the afternoon on Sunday. We should get the daylight hours in rain-free, with showers on the increase as the aforementioned disturbance and associated surface low pass by overnight into early Monday.

The main weather concern will be the risk for coastal flooding early each morning this weekend thanks to the upcoming full moon and northeasterly winds, which are very favorable for piling up water in our neck of the woods. The water level forecast has increased for Charleston Harbor Saturday morning, and we now could look at 7.3-7.5′ with high tide around 6am, capable of closing some roads. Expect a repeat around Sunday morning’s 6:46am high tide as northeasterly winds persist, with water levels likely high enough to produce moderate coastal flooding (7.5-7.7′). Stay tuned for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Friday & the weekend: A few showers give way to generally quiet and cool weather

/ November 23, 2023 at 9:55 PM

We’ll get Black Friday off to a bit of a cloudy and perhaps showery start as a disturbance ripples through the area, kicking up some patchy rains for a few hours Friday morning. From there, rain will depart and clouds will gradually break some, and we should end the day with some sunshine. We start Friday in the upper 40s and warm to the low 60s.

High pressure wedging southward will keep Saturday on the cool side under a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures start in the mid-40s but may not crack 60° in the afternoon given the cool high pressure wedging into place. Sunday will represent the coolest start of the set with lows in the low 40s expected. However, we’ll warm to the low 60s in the afternoon as the wedge begins to weaken in advance of another disturbance for Monday. Still, high temperatures will run on the cool side of normal, so sweaters may be advisable.

Coastal flooding could be an issue Saturday and Sunday mornings. Water levels around the 6am high tide Saturday could reach 7.2′, while moderate coastal flooding is possible with Sunday morning’s 6:46am high tide as water levels could peak between 7.6-7.8′. We’re approaching a full moon on Monday, but the bigger driver of coastal flooding will be NE winds kicking up near the coast thanks to a pressure gradient between high pressure building in over land and low pressure spinning up offshore. Stay tuned for possible Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

Thanksgiving Day: Seasonably cool with sunshine

/ November 22, 2023 at 9:13 PM

After some much-needed rain Tuesday and Wednesday, we get a day to dry out on Thanksgiving. Expect plenty of sunshine for much of the day (albeit with clouds increasing late) and some cooler and drier air as well — we’ll wake up to lows in the mid-40s that will yield to highs in the low 60s as generally light north winds blow in. Overall, it looks like a great day to get together with family for food and football, amongst other things.

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Wednesday morning thunderstorms yield to a quiet and cooler Thanksgiving Day

/ November 21, 2023 at 5:55 PM

A cold front will continue to approach the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing a line of showers and a few thunderstorms along with it that’ll arrive Wednesday morning. Some periods of heavy rain may be possible, and even a couple pockets of gusty winds won’t be out of the question, either. It’ll be one more warm and muggy start with lows bottoming out in the mid-60s. Highs head to the low 70s in the afternoon ahead of the front, which should get through late Wednesday. Once this happens, cooler and drier air will push in, and we’ll wake up to temperatures in the mid-40s on Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures will only reach the low 60s with continued cool advection under partly cloudy skies. Shower chances return on Black Friday as another disturbance moves across, but it won’t be quite as potent and rain shouldn’t be nearly as heavy, nor will it be a total washout. Expect generally similar temperatures to Thursday, so you’ll probably want longer sleeves with a bit of a water-resistant flair to them.

Tuesday’s forecast: Showers return

/ November 20, 2023 at 8:19 PM

Tuesday’s forecast will be unsettled at times with periods of showers ahead of a cold front that’ll advance through the area on Wednesday. It’s going to be a warm and humid day, with lows around 60-61° warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon. Shower chances will increase as we get into Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and some rumbles of thunder may be possible as well. We need the rain and it looks like we could get a fair bit of it in spots. A half-inch of rain seems to be a decent bet in many locations, with locally heavier amounts possible as well.

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The week ahead: Warm start, unsettled at times, but a seasonable and quiet Thanksgiving

/ November 19, 2023 at 11:40 PM

The week ahead will be unsettled at times as a couple disturbances, including a reasonably strong cold front, come by this week, which will bring more beneficial rain to the area (and maybe even a few rumbles of thunder).

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Weekend forecast: Lots of sun, warm Saturday, cooler Sunday

/ November 17, 2023 at 5:29 PM

Showers will depart overnight Friday, and we look to have a rather nice and warm Saturday ahead. We’ll start the day in the upper 50s and warm to the upper 70s in the afternoon with plenty of sunshine to be had. A cold front will then pass through Saturday evening with nary a whimper, just a gradual drop in dewpoints with temperatures to follow. We start Sunday in the low 50s — a few degrees warmer than recent forecasts — and warm to about 70° in the afternoon. Sunshine will once again be in abundance, and it’ll be another gorgeous (and more seasonally-appropriate) weather day.

Looking ahead: Showers will return to the forecast for the first half of Thanksgiving week with temperatures generally around or above mid-late November norms. From there, a strong cold front looks to sweep through, knocking temperatures down well below normal — thinks highs in the upper 50s to around 60° — just in time to make Thanksgiving Day feel like, well, Thanksgiving Day.

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Friday & the weekend: One more day of tapering showers, then turning nice

/ November 16, 2023 at 10:41 PM

Showers will gradually depart as Friday wears on thanks to low pressure moving away from the area. It’ll be an unseasonably warm day, with lows starting near 60° before temperatures top out in the low to mid-70s in the afternoon. We’ll see some breaks in the clouds between showers, so once again, we’re not expecting a totally gray, washed out day. The only other issue will be the potential for some minor salt water flooding around the 10:25am high tide; expect water levels to peak around 7′ or so, putting some salt water once again on Hagood at Fishburne and perhaps on Lockwood. Widespread flooding issues are not expected.

The weather improves just in time for the weekend. Clouds will be decreasing Saturday as deeper moisture departs. We start the day in the mid-50s before warming into the low 70s in the early afternoon. From there, a cold front will get through later in the day; expect a dry passage thanks to much drier air in place. Sunday will be noticeably cooler — expect lows in the mid-40s, some 10° cooler than Saturday morning — before warming to around 70° in the afternoon.

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