Scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast for much of the day Tuesday. While it won’t rain all day at any one location, a shower or storm will be possible pretty much anytime especially beyond 10am. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, but severe weather is unlikely.

We start the day in the upper 70s to low 80s at the coast, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints in the upper 70s yield heat indices in the mid-100s (though just shy of advisory criteria), which will continue this stretch of uncomfortably steamy weather.

A surface trough and the seabreeze keeps shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast each afternoon for much of the upcoming week. We’ll stay on the steamy side, though, with temperatures generally in the low to mid-90s each afternoon and lows in the upper 70s inland to low 80s near the coast, where additional record high minimum temperature records could be broken this week.

The Fourth of July should be a generally quiet weather day across the area, featuring partly cloudy skies and generally near-normal temperatures (read: still fairly hot). We start the day in the mid-70s and will warm to the low-to-mid-90s away from the coast, which looks to run more into the upper 80s to around 90°. The heat index will run around 100° as dewpoints remain a touch lower than they have been (generally low 70s). You’ll want the sunscreen with the UV index expected to run close to 10 at the height of the afternoon. Ridging aloft will keep a lid on any thunderstorm activity, removing Mother Nature’s fireworks from the equation this go-around.

After a brief reprieve Tuesday, the heat is turning back up as we head into the Fourth and beyond. Winds stay onshore for one more day Wednesday, which will keep temperatures “only” in the upper 80s to low 90s. Mid-70s dewpoints, though, will make it feel like the upper 90s during the height of the afternoon. Ridging building in aloft will keep a lid on any shower and thunderstorm development.

We get a brief reprieve from the heat on Tuesday as the front that brought today’s deluge nudges just south enough for a little bit of cooler and drier air to work in, especially further inland. Mostly cloudy skies will be the rule as onshore flow persists throughout the day. We start the day in the low 70s, but dewpoints sneaking briefly back into the upper 60s could feel a little bit better than we’ve felt. Those dewpoints will start to creep back up, but the cloud cover and onshore flow keeps highs capped to the mid-80s. A stray storm can’t be totally ruled out near the coast; in fact some model data suggests a few downpours will be possible before sunrise. Wait and see on that, but most of us should get Tuesday in rain-free.

We will get the first week of July off to a very soggy start as a front stalls in the area, bringing a risk for numerous showers and thunderstorms on Monday evening (more on that shortly). While rain chances back off a little bit Tuesday and Wednesday as the front meanders and weakens, we will get at least a brief break from the advisory-level heat that punctuated the end of June. Rain will keep highs to the upper 80s on Monday, while onshore flow Tuesday helps to keep highs tamped down to the mid-80s. Warming begins again Wednesday, though, with upper 80s yielding to mid-90s on the Fourth of July. We’re in the upper 90s for Friday and the weekend with standard afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances expected.

It was a nice couple days of heat indices “only” in the upper 90s to low 100s, but we return to Advisory-level heat on Sunday as air temperatures in the mid-90s combine with dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to yield heat indices 108-110°. Once again, you’ll want to be sure your outdoor activities involve frequent breaks in the shade with plenty of water.

Those outdoor activities may become disrupted as we get into the afternoon and evening hours as thunderstorms begin to fire along and ahead of the seabreeze. Coverage should increase as the evening goes on as a disturbance aloft swings by. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible with some periods of locally heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning. A few stronger storms could produce sporadic damaging wind gusts, so be alert for possible severe weather warnings as well. Regardless of the severity of the storms, lightning makes every thunderstorm dangerous. If you can hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck by lightning, so move those outdoor activities inside if a thunderstorm approaches your location. Most of the activity should disperse as we get later into Sunday night, though some could hang around with the energy aloft and an approaching front.

We’ll want to keep an eye on Monday for the potential for some flooding as slow-moving showers and storms should fire on that aforementioned front as it stalls out across the area. I’ll have more on that risk tomorrow as more data rolls in.

The weekend’s forecast will feature continued summer heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

We’ll start Saturday in the mid-to-upper 70s away from the coast, warming to the low to mid-90s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be on the rebound after a slightly drier Friday, but heat indices should stay below the Heat Advisory threshold of 108° for one more day. That being said, it’ll still be plenty hot: it’ll feel like 103-105° at the height of the afternoon. The seabreeze will be the focal point for scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with additional storms firing off outflow boundaries. Some of us may see a storm to cool us off, but others will not. High-resolution guidance is pointing at areas along and west of 17-A for the best chance for storms.

More widespread storms are possible Sunday ahead of another “cold” front that’ll be moving in from the north. Ahead of this front and before storms kick off, air temperatures could head into the mid-90s. This, combined with an increasingly humid airmass, could send heat indices toward the upper 100s and, after a couple days off, another Heat Advisory. Many of us should see relief, though, as showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon through the evening via the seabreeze, outflow boundaries, and the approaching front. A couple storms could be on the stronger side with damaging wind gusts the main concern as well, so be aware of that possibility.

After some much-needed rainfall Thursday, we’ve got a few more shots at additional rain as we close out the month. In fact, the thunderstorm activity Thursday night will likely help keep temperatures and dewpoints down a little heading into Friday, with heat indices “only” in the low-to-mid-100s for many of us before thunderstorms fire in the afternoon. The early return from the late Thursday evening model runs suggests less storm coverage Friday than we saw Thursday, but some of us will still see another round of needed rain.

The active summertime pattern stays in place for Saturday into Sunday as well, with air temperatures in the low 90s combining with increasing dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 70s to prompt Heat Advisory-level conditions once again each afternoon before thunderstorms fire. Scattered coverage continues to be expected, with some of us getting luckier than others as far as rainfall goes. Some of the rain could be quite heavy at times, though, with minor flooding a possibility if it sets up in the more vulnerable locations. And as always, you can’t rule out a stronger or even marginally severe thunderstorm in the summertime; while there isn’t much to hang your hat on as far as organized storms, boundary and cell collisions can help bring down some strong wind gusts.

The meteorological status quo continues on Thursday: Heat, humidity, and a few storms in the afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly heinous on Thursday, with lows barely dipping below 80° away from the warmer coastline and highs getting into the mid-to-upper 90s in the afternoon. Mix in dewpoints in the mid-70s, and that’ll yield another day of dangerous heat indices in the 107-110° range. I’d be ready for yet another Heat Advisory to be issued for tomorrow.

A front sinking southward into the area combined with the usual seabreeze influence will help improve shower and thunderstorm chances for more of us tomorrow afternoon and evening. Pockets of heavy rain will be possible, and some gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm as well. A stray Severe Thunderstorm Warning certainly is in the cards, but widespread severe weather isn’t expected.