What’s clear about Monday is that, at some point, there will be a squall line with strong thunderstorms coming through the area. These storms will be capable of producing wind damage and could spawn a tornado or two along the leading edge of the line.

The degree to which this threat will materialize is going to be highly dependent on timing, and that’s where it gets tricky — but I’ll do my best to demystify it.

A dry cold front will swing through tonight, bringing temperatures down well below normal for mid-April for Friday and Saturday, dipping into the low 40s by Saturday morning. High pressure will bring pleasant weather into the area to kick off Easter weekend, but that high pressure system will slide offshore Saturday evening, giving way to a potent storm system for Sunday and Monday.

No, you suddenly didn’t wake up in June (though we would all understand if you felt that way): Temperatures will approach record levels on Thursday ahead of an oncoming cold front. Westerly winds will usher in more drier air, thankfully, so the humidity won’t be terrible as we approach our record high of 90° for April 9.

There is a small possibility that the remnants of a thunderstorm complex coming in from the northwest could bring showers to the area early Thursday. The official NWS forecast remains dry, highlighting only about a 10% chance of rain in the Charleston metro. Further west toward I-95, chances are marginally higher. Trends will be watched, but odds point to dry conditions in the short-term models.

Of note: A statewide burn ban is in effect, and weather conditions particularly in Berkeley and Dorchester counties will become prone to wildfire Thursday afternoon. Please, please, please do not burn — let’s not give our first responders anything else to deal with.

We’ve got another warm day on tap Tuesday as temperatures top out in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies. We’ll want to keep an eye on the skies in the afternoon and early evening hours for the potential for a few storms to work their way into the area; one or two of these could produce some strong winds and maybe some hail. Otherwise, we continue late-spring/early-summer-like weather.

Once again, we will need to watch for the potential for minor tidal flooding around times of high tide Tuesday (8:02am and 8:33pm). Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories if you have any essential travel tomorrow. (Otherwise, stay home.)

After a rather pleasant weekend, temperatures will begin to trend back above normal this week with chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs will be getting into the mid-80s by midweek, marking a return to that summer preview we were feeling toward the end of March. A cold front will move through the area sometime later this week, bringing a reduction in temperatures, but showers may yet stick around. It’s a fairly low confidence forecast looking toward next weekend with a fair bit of divergence in the models, so stay tuned for updates as things will undoubtedly need to be ironed out.

Did you like today? Excellent — there’s more on the way for Saturday as temperatures top out in the mid-70s once again under mostly sunny skies. High pressure will then slip into the Atlantic turning winds more onshore for Sunday, boosting humidity a little and providing for more partly cloudy skies, but comfortable temperatures in the mid-70s continue.

Only things to watch out for this weekend (besides coronavirus!):

• Weather conditions will be conducive to wildfires through Saturday afternoon. Postpone any outdoor burning so that things don’t get out of hand in an already stressful situation.
• Some minor tidal flooding may be possible with the Sunday morning high tide around 6:13am. As of this writing, the NWS forecast prediction is for tides to top out around 7′. This would cause some minor flooding in places such as Lockwood Blvd. and the intersection of Hagood and Fishburne streets near the Citadel and MUSC.

Otherwise, this weekend’s weather will be enjoyable even if the circumstances aren’t so hot. Try to get outside — it will be good for your soul.

We have a beautiful Friday coming up for outdoor social distancing activities: mid-70s with low humidity in the afternoon under sunny skies as high pressure has full control of the weather situation. It’s a great day to work from home in the backyard or perhaps have some outdoor home school lessons. (I promised The Dog that I’d throw him the ball this evening, so that’s how I’m going to take advantage.) Remember, beating COVID-19 isn’t just about six feet of personal space or avoiding crowds — it’s also about taking time to do things for your mental health as well. This weather should hopefully help in that regard.

The stratocumulus clouds are gone, and after the chilliest start since early March (mid-40s!), we look to have a really gorgeous day ahead with highs around 70° under sunny skies thanks to a broad area of high pressure across much of the eastern half of the continental United States. Just because we’re all in on social distancing doesn’t mean you can’t go outside. It’s good for the soul. Enjoy!

I knew it was coming, but the chill in the air was somewhat shocking as I went to read the rain gauge this morning! In the wake of yesterday’s storm system which, thankfully, had more bark than bite for our neck of the woods, April will start out significantly cooler with clouds gradually decreasing as the day goes on. You’ll want a light jacket as temperatures will only rise into the mid-60s this afternoon. Enjoy the brief return to #hoodieweather before above-normal temperatures re-establish themselves getting into next week.

UPDATE 6:18 PM: The tornado watch has been canceled.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for the Lowcountry, including the entire Charleston Tri-County area, until 9PM. We in #chswx continue to watch an area of low pressure strengthen as it heads eastward. While instability is lacking, wind shear is plentiful, and the approaching low pressure will only assist in ramping this up. Thus, the watch.