I hope everyone got to enjoy this fine Mother’s Day weekend, because we are getting back to storms for a good chunk of the upcoming week. We start Monday on a dry note, but shower and storm chances will increase as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast states toward the East Coast. We start Monday in the low 60s, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon with clouds on the increase ahead of shower and thunderstorm chances later in the day.

The latest forecast update from the Space Weather Prediction Center calls for G4-G5 geomagnetic storming overnight, with the peak of the activity expected right around sunrise (alas) as another round of G5 conditions is expected.

As of 9PM, the geomagnetic storm index is, well…G-Zero. It is expected to ramp back up, but weaker than last night when the storm remained at G5 levels for much of the evening. This will mean that it’ll be a later night for aurora-watchers here in the Lowcountry, and that y’all will indeed have your best chance at seeing something if you are in a dark place and using a camera. We just cannot expect that we will see aurora to the degree we saw it last night, and it may not even be close. And by the time the expected G5 conditions kick in, we’ll be getting into dawn, and that will end the chance for us to see aurora here. Sunday evening’s forecast right now doesn’t look too favorable here with generally G3 conditions at best as the storm dies down, so if we’re going to see any additional aurora, it’s going to have to be tonight.

If you are going to stay out a while tonight, pack a hoodie — lows dip into the upper 50s under clear skies. Good luck, aurora-hunters!

Well, last night was something else — you just don’t see aurora this far south every day, and the degree to which we saw it was so incredibly rare. The fact that many of you were able to see it with the naked eye speaks well to the strength of the storm: a G5 event, according to the Space Weather Prediction Center, which hasn’t happened since October of 2003.

The geomagnetic storm continues over the weekend. However, it probably peaked last night. G3 conditions are forecast for tonight, which would preclude most of us from seeing aurora unless we were in a dark place with a good view of the northern horizon using a camera with a wide-open aperture. Clouds will not be an issue tonight as fair-weather cumulus will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. If anything, you might want a hoodie if you’re going to go looking! But once again, I want to set expectations very carefully: we just cannot expect a repeat of last night’s display tonight. G5 geomagnetic storms are incredibly rare, and that’s the strength we need for the kind of display we saw yesterday here in the Lowcountry. (It’s not too late to head to the NC mountains, though!)

After a stormy Thursday that, aside from a report of quarter-size hail in Goose Creek, was generally benign for the Charleston metro, a couple more rounds of unsettled weather arrive Friday before a beautiful weekend.

We get off to a warm start on Thursday — expect lows to only bottom out in the low to perhaps mid-70s with highs topping out in the low 90s and humidity making it feel closer to the upper 90s. The main weather story, though, will be the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms moving through Thursday afternoon and into the evening. These could pack strong and potentially damaging wind gusts along with large hail. Exact timing is still unclear, but there is a risk these could coincide with the commute, so we’ll want to watch them closely. Stay close to reliable weather sources throughout the day for updates.

We reached 90° on Tuesday, the third 90° high of the year and the first time since April 20, when we reached 91°. We turn even warmer for Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridges over the area. Wednesday will feature highs in the low-to-mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. Heat indices won’t get too out of bounds, but it’ll still feel a touch warmer than the air temperature will indicate.

High pressure remains in control to start Thursday, sending us to the mid-90s in the afternoon with heat indices in the mid-to-upper 90s possible. A storm system will approach the area, though, and this will help ignite showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening. Given the moist, unstable, and decently sheared environment, a few of those storms could turn strong or severe. We’ll keep an eye on how things evolve further to our west Wednesday as they’ll inform the situation locally on Thursday. Stay tuned.

Showers and thunderstorms feature prominently in the forecast on Friday as a cold front moves through. A couple stronger storms still can’t be totally discounted in this scenario, though the risk looks lower than Thursday at this point. Temperatures will be governed by clouds and rain, topping out in the mid-80s. Once the front gets through late Friday/early Saturday, cooler and drier air moves in for what should be a rather nice weekend!

We may contend with a storm or two in the morning, but the weather story for Tuesday will be the return of the 90s in the afternoon. It’ll be a warm start with lows around 70°, but as the ridge aloft builds in, highs top out in the low 90s. If there’s one bit of good news here, it’s that it’s not summer-humid just yet, and dewpoints should run in the mid-60s, keeping heat indices reasonably in check. Cloud cover will be diminishing throughout the day as well, so expect plenty of sunshine as we get into the afternoon and evening hours.

The upcoming week will be on the warm side as ridging aloft builds in, sending mid-week temperatures well into the 90s and perhaps into record territory.

First, though, we deal with another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms for Monday. Temperatures on Monday start once again in the upper 60s to near 70°, warming to the mid-80s as one last upper disturbance makes its way through. We should see thunderstorms fire up around or a little after midday and generally remain scattered in nature. A few heavy downpours will be possible, and a strong storm can never be totally discounted near where boundaries collide — and on the flip side, some of y’all might not see any rain at all. (That time of year!)

Expect another round of scattered showers and storms on Sunday. Most of us could see rain at any point in the day. The best chances start closer to the coast in the morning and migrate inland during the afternoon, much as we saw on Saturday. It’ll be muggy, too: lows will barely get below 70°, while highs top out in the mid-80s as dewpoints continue generally in the mid-60s.

Once again, Sunday is not a washout threat, especially as you get closer to the coast. However, you’ll want to make sure your outdoor plans have a solid indoor backup. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!

A periodically unsettled weekend lies ahead as high pressure aloft gives way to a few disturbances rippling through the area. After another mild start in the mid-60s, Saturday will feature primarily isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms driven by the seabreeze. Temperatures will head into the mid-80s in the afternoon between any storms that fire. Overall, severe weather is not expected, but you’ll still want to take lightning into account for any outdoor plans you may have.

Sunday could feature perhaps slightly better coverage of showers and thunderstorms, but there is still no expectation of a total washout. Lows will bottom out just in the upper 60s, warming back to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Once again, you’ll want to make sure you’ve got a solid indoor backup for your outdoor plans, but don’t cancel anything, either. Just remember the old adage: “When thunder roars, go indoors.”