At 8am, Dorian resumed forward motion for the first time in 18 hours — moving NW at 1. It remains a strong Category 3 hurricane with max winds of 120 MPH.

Now that the storm has started moving again, we should be able to finish forecast fine-tuning later today.

What to do today

Finish storm preparation today. We are still on track for adverse weather to move in Wednesday, with the bulk of tropical storm and possibly hurricane conditions starting Wednesday evening through much of Thursday. Bring in loose items, secure personal property, and give the disaster kit one last look. Give extra attention to things like batteries for flashlights; with the bulk of the worst conditions currently timed overnight Wednesday into Thursday, overnight power outages are likely.

Watch for flooding around the noon high tide. Moderate flooding may close roads downtown. Be ready to use alternate routes.

If evacuating, leave today. Weather heads downhill tomorrow and you just won’t want to drive through it. If you’re not leaving, just get ready to stay put for a couple days as Dorian brushes us.

Next update

The next track and intensity forecast update arrives at 11am. Confidence is increasing in the forecast track and subsequent impacts, and I expect a warning of some type to be hoisted with that advisory.

Hurricane Dorian continues to sit stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island, lashing the island with its eyewall (as it has for much of the day). As the storm has remained stationary, it has weakened somewhat, but remains a dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 130 MPH as of the 11 PM advisory.

At the 5PM advisory (which came out about 20 minutes early — thanks, NHC!), Dorian was found to have totally stalled out just north of Grand Bahama Island, which continues to take a lashing from this Category 4 storm. An eyewall replacement cycle has caused the storm to lose some intensity, but it’s not much consolation when the storm still packs maximum sustained winds of 145 MPH. The storm is now completely stationary after showing some signs of a northward jog earlier in the day. Until we can see a more substantial turn, uncertainty around the specifics of Dorian’s track and impacts on our area remains rather high.

Dorian is now a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 MPH. It continues a very slow westward motion — 1 MPH. There are no significant changes to the track. Keep doing what you’re doing to prepare. I do suspect that hurricane and storm surge watches will be issued later tonight. Stay tuned…

Hurricane Dorian continues to pose a significant threat to the South Carolina coastline this morning. We are awaiting the beginning of a turn to the north or northwest; this should happen at some point today, hopefully freeing the people of Grand Bahama from the eyewall of Dorian sooner rather than later. Where and when this turn happens is key to the forecast evolution down the road, so please keep in mind that there are elements that are still low-confidence.

As of the 5am advisory, Hurricane Dorian remains a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 MPH. It has essentially stalled out, crawling to the west at 1 MPH. It is expected to very slowly start moving more northward today. Impacts for the Lowcountry — storm surge, strong winds, very heavy rain — are becoming a little clearer, but everything hinges on when the northerly turn happens. More later this morning.

At 5PM, Hurricane Dorian was over the Bahamas, packing incredible winds of 185 MPH (with gusts to 220 MPH). It continues an ever-slower westward motion of 5 mph. The storm is expected to nearly stall out on Monday as steering currents weaken, then it is forecast to make a turn to the north sometime late Monday or Tuesday.

The situation with respect to Charleston has not yet changed, and preparations for hurricane conditions on Wednesday and Thursday should be ongoing.

At 4 PM, Hurricane Dorian tied the third-strongest hurricane on record, the 1924 “Cuba” hurricane, in the Atlantic basin by pressure with a barometer reading of 910 millibars. Max winds are estimated at 185 MPH with gusts to 220 MPH. It is lashing the Bahamas with extreme wind and storm surge as it continues to slow down. We are watching intently to see when the storm will turn north. (The sooner, the better.)

The storm continues to pose a threat to the Southeast coast, including Charleston, for the middle of next week. Preparations for hurricane conditions should continue in the Charleston area, with the risk for greatest impacts Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

The next full track and intensity forecast will be out at 5PM.

We in #chswx continue to monitor Hurricane Dorian’s progress in the southwest Atlantic. As of 5am, Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 85 MPH and was moving NW at 13 MPH. On the forecast track, it makes landfall somewhere along the east coast of Florida as a major hurricane on Labor Day.

Tropical Storm Dorian formed over the weekend, fighting dry air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. It has a highly uncertain road ahead of it, but it may be something to watch as we get into next week.