Thursday: Another hot day before turning unsettled this weekend

Heat peaks on Thursday before a cold front affects the area this weekend, bringing more widespread unsettled weather to the area starting Friday.
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Heat peaks on Thursday before a cold front affects the area this weekend, bringing more widespread unsettled weather to the area starting Friday.
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The weather story this week thus far has been the extremely warm and muggy mornings. This morning was no exception — downtown has, thus far, only dropped to 84° while the airport’s low is 80°. If these lows hold, they would break the record warm low temperature downtown and tie it at the airport. These warm lows will continue for the rest of the work week, which will not allow much relief from the mid-90s heat during the day.
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Tuesday looks similar to Monday, with temperatures warming into the low-to-mid-90s in the afternoon after another sultry start in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat indices inland will run in the low 100s, but may push 108° as we get closer to the coast and the higher-dewpoint air. Southerly winds will continue to be breezy, with gusts pushing 30 MPH at times midday.
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The week ahead will continue to feature warm and muggy conditions, with an uptick in rain chances as we get over the hump toward the weekend.
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Midsummer heat and humidity will not relent this weekend with temperatures continuing to run above normal courtesy of Atlantic high pressure pumping warm and moist air into the area while high pressure remains resident aloft for a few more days.
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Heat and humidity continues for Friday and the weekend with high pressure aloft the main weather driver. Atlantic high pressure will continue to drive high dewpoints into the area, and that not only will drive heat indices well into the 100s, but it will keep us quite toasty at night, too. Expect lows in the upper 70s each day, perhaps not dropping below 80° closer to the coast and downtown.
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High pressure rebuilding aloft will bring more sunshine — but more heat, too. We’ll start Thursday in the mid-70s inland to upper 70s near the coast. From there, plenty of sunshine will drive highs into the mid-90s. Dewpoints will be fairly juicy — generally in the mid-to-upper 70s — and this will drive heat indices well into the mid-100s. Closer to the coast as well as in downtown, dewpoints near 80° will help drive the heat index up toward 108° for at least a brief period. Heat Advisory criteria is a heat index 108°-112° for two hours or more, and we certainly could be close in the coastal corridor. Regardless, be sure you’re taking frequent breaks in the shade with plenty of water if you’re working outside.
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The pattern turns a little more settled as high pressure builds back in aloft. As a result, we will see more sunshine as the week progresses, though with that will come warmer temperatures, too, which could push Heat Advisory thresholds in spots.
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Showers and thunderstorms will feature prominently in the forecast on Tuesday as they develop around a stalled boundary lingering to the south. Periods of heavy rain will be possible, and an area or two of freshwater flooding can’t be totally ruled out. However, severe weather is unlikely, and this will largely be a beneficial rainfall event. Even better, highs should peak below 90° for the first time since June 24. So, even though there will be rain, it’ll be awfully nice to not be baking.
The main flooding concern arrives with the evening high tide; minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible between 7-10 PM. We’ll need to monitor where the rain is carefully; any rain that coincides will cause issues downtown.
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After a week of consecutive heat headlines, whether they be Heat Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings, a front dropping in from the north — and the accompanying unsettled weather — will take the edge off the heat for at least a few days.
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