The weather for the Fourth of July weekend looks a bit on the unsettled side as low pressure — perhaps tropical in nature — spins up offshore and increases the risk for rain near the coast.

Independence Day itself looks okay with a bit of drier air working into the area in the wake of a stalling front. There’s still enough juice for a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the seabreeze in the afternoon, so be sure you have indoor alternatives to your outdoor plans just in case thunderstorms threaten. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices will run in the mid-90s to around 100° in the afternoon, particularly in the immediate wake of the seabreeze, so be wary of the heat especially if you are more vulnerable to it.

While storms so far on Wednesday were more off than on, more chances for rain arrive on Thursday with the heating of the day and a stalling front that will be in the neighborhood. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon — right on the line for what to expect from early July. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain and frequent lightning, and an isolated severe storm can never be ruled out this time of year where boundaries collide.

A cold front will draw nearer to the Lowcountry on Wednesday before stalling out, which will help kick up the risk for thunderstorms especially during the afternoon and evening hours. It won’t rain all day, but many of us should measure some rainfall as storms push across the area from west to east through late night. Temperatures in the mid-70s will warm to the upper 80s to around 90°. There’s a chance our 18-day streak of 90°+ highs will come to an end thanks to the proliferation of cloud cover, showers, and thunderstorms on Wednesday, but we will see. Regardless, expect a steamy and eventually stormy day across the metro; be ready for rain to cause some slowdowns.

Thursday is looking a little better, though some storms could linger midday. But drier air will be moving in, and we should see improving conditions by evening. It’ll be another warm day, with highs returning to the 90s in the afternoon after another mid-70s start.

The rest of the work week will turn increasingly stormy as a cold front encroaches on the area by midweek. A trough aloft will help drive the front close to the area — but not quite through — and contribute to an influx in lift and moisture that’ll bring us scattered to numerous thunderstorms, particularly on Wednesday.

Warm, humid, and occasionally stormy days lie ahead to close out June and bring in July. (Side note: It’s insane that we’re entering the second half of 2025!) Temperatures look to remain in the 90s each afternoon, and if the forecast works out, the current 16-day streak of 90°+ high temperatures should continue through a third and into a fourth week (23 days, to be exact).

A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday into Thursday, stalling out before it reaches us (of course). This will increase the risk for showers and thunderstorms for those two days in particular, and if there’s a period that could impact that 90° streak, this is it. Regardless, it’ll still be steamy and stormy.

The final weekend of June will have that classic end-of-June feel: lows in the mid-70s, highs in the mid-90s, and isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day.

A fairly standard summer setup will take shape for Friday and the weekend as high pressure in the Atlantic ridges westward across the area, keeping temperatures warm and humid with daily storm chances. We can generally expect temperatures to start in the mid-70s each morning, with temperatures warming to the low to mid-90s each afternoon as our run of 90° days dating back to June 14 continues. Dewpoints ahead of the seabreeze will mix out with some drier air aloft to keep heat indices from getting too far out of hand, with apparent temperatures running just 3 or 4° warmer than air temperatures. Still, if you have vulnerability to the heat, be mindful of too much strenuous activity during the afternoons.

We should see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms fire along and ahead of the seabreeze each afternoon. The risk for severe weather is very low, but there’s always the risk for a storm or two to briefly turn strong to severe especially where thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. Remember, all thunderstorms are dangerous because of the lightning they produce. When thunder roars, go indoors!

The high heat of the past couple days — we hit 98° again on Wednesday, just one degree off the record high — will let up on Thursday as high pressure aloft continues to weaken. Don’t misunderstand: it’ll still be plenty hot, but not to the Advisory-level thresholds we’ve hit recently. After a start in the mid-70s, likely in the wake of thunderstorms that are expected late tonight into early Thursday morning, temperatures in the afternoon warm to the low 90s. Dewpoints will mix down to around 70°, so heat indices should stay relatively tame, with a brief spike into the upper 90s possible as the seabreeze pushes inland. A few showers and thunderstorms could pop on the seabreeze, as is often the case this time of year, but nothing out-of-bounds is expected.

After reaching 98° today at the airport and 95° downtown, another very hot day awaits for Wednesday as air temperatures should once again make a run for the upper 90s in the afternoon, with heat indices once again peaking in the mid-to-upper 100s.

We will need to keep an eye on the skies on Wednesday afternoon and evening, though, as several of the high-resolution models suggest some sort of thunderstorm complex will develop in southern North Carolina and move southwest through the afternoon and evening hours. Plenty of instability will be available, and there will be a risk for these thunderstorms to produce strong, damaging winds. NWS’s current thinking on timing for any severe storms would be from 6PM-midnight, with the best risk for severe weather inland of Highway 17. We’ll keep an eye on this throughout tomorrow and will update as needed.

A very hot Tuesday is in the offing as high pressure at the surface and aloft remain in place, allowing temperatures to head into the upper 90s to around 100° across the area away from the coast, where temperatures should peak in the low to mid-90s. Regardless of where you are, heat indices should peak around 108-109° as well, prompting a Heat Advisory for the Tri-County area — the first of 2025 — that’ll go from 1-8 PM. If you are working outdoors during that period in particular, be sure you’re getting plenty of fluids and taking frequent breaks in the shade or, preferably, an air-conditioned environment. Be very vigilant about any children or pets in the car, too — it doesn’t take very long at all for temperatures to become very dangerous in cars, and we don’t want any hot car deaths. Look before you lock!

If a high of 100° verifies at the airport, it would be the first time since May 29, 2019 (the Before Times!) that the temperature at the airport reached 100° or higher. Triple-digit heat isn’t expected east of 17, including in downtown Charleston and at the beaches, but the closer proximity to higher-dewpoint maritime air will still send heat indices into the danger zone despite the lower air temperatures.

Looking for thunderstorms to cool you off? I wouldn’t count on it, though a stray storm can never be fully ruled out this time of year.