Thursday could feature a few showers and storms brushing the coast as low pressure tries to organize along a stationary front that’s been lingering offshore for the past few days. It’ll otherwise be a fairly standard warm June day — lows in the low 70s yielding to highs around 90° in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Dewpoints in the upper 60s will help keep heat indices from getting too far out of hand, thankfully.

The rest of the work week will generally trend warmer and stay mostly rain-free, especially the further inland you are. Expect generally partly cloudy skies Wednesday, though we’ll see a disturbance swing through later in the day that’ll add some high cloud cover to the mix. Expect highs to top out in the upper 80s to around 90° after a start around 70°.

The aforementioned disturbance in association with the stalled front nearby could kick up some stray showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, especially near the coast. Most locations inland of 17 could have a brief window for a storm or two Thursday morning, but the vast majority of us should get the day in rain-free. Temperatures get a little warmer, with a low 70s start yielding to highs in the low 90s.

The disturbance and associated low is out of here by Friday, yielding a warm and mostly sunny day. Once again, we start in the low 70s, warming to the low to mid-90s in the afternoon. We’ll keep this warming trend going into the weekend, with upper 90s possible on Saturday.

It’s a low bar to clear, but Tuesday will be much quieter than Monday was weather-wise as drier air noses in from the northeast. This should be enough to keep storms, much less significant cloud cover, at bay for a day. We start the day in the upper 60s to around 70°, warming to about 90° in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. Unfortunately, we’ll need the good weather for some cleanup after severe storms brought large hail and damaging winds to the Summerville area on Monday evening.

After highs topped out in the mid-90s on Sunday, we’ll see temperatures back down a little bit toward normal heading into the upcoming work week as a front crosses through and stalls out nearby, potentially bringing a somewhat unsettled Monday. Showers and thunderstorms could be in the area during the morning hours, but the better chance for rain arrives in the afternoon and evening as more forcing arrives. Temperatures start in the mid-70s, heading to around 90° under a mix of sun and clouds.

We’ve got quite a warm weekend ahead with plenty of sunshine. Thankfully, humidity will not play a major role as dewpoints mix out to the 50s on Saturday and the low 60s on Sunday. In fact, Saturday could be one of those days where the heat index is actually lower than the air temperature at times as relative humidity values will head down to around 35% during the height of the afternoon.

Sunday may end up as the hottest day thus far in 2024. The forecast high of 98°, if it verifies, would be the warmest day since August 14, 2023, when it was also 98°. Thankfully, we’ll keep dewpoints in the low 60s, which will keep heat indices below 100°. Still, 98° is plenty, plenty hot — if you’ll be outside, make sure you’re taking breaks and staying hydrated. Don’t forget the sunscreen, too, especially if you’re headed to the beach — it’s prime UV season, after all.

Despite the heat, thunderstorm chances will be nil — just too much dry, sinking air for afternoon thunderstorms (much less a robust cumulus field!) to develop. The next rain chances arrive Monday, and we could stay somewhat unsettled heading into next week as a front stalls out nearby.

Mother Nature will come out throwing heat this weekend — thankfully coming along with lower dewpoints than we typically see in summertime. A “cold” front swings through during the day Friday, and while the airmass will trend drier, it’ll still be quite warm — highs in the mid-90s are expected. Thankfully, the drier air keeps heat indices within a degree or two of the air temperature. Sunshine will be in abundance, with the dry, sinking air keeping cloud cover at a minimum.

We’ll keep this going into the weekend. Saturday will be the “cooler” of the two days, but still plenty warm with highs reaching the low to mid-90s under mostly sunny skies. Sunday turns a little warmer and a touch more humid, with highs solidly in the mid-90s under mostly sunny skies once again. The next shower or thunderstorm chance arrives Monday afternoon as dewpoints continue to climb heading into next week.

Scattered thunderstorms return to the forecast on Wednesday afternoon, once again focusing inland along and ahead of the seabreeze. It’ll be another mild start around 70°, warming to near 90° in the afternoon. Dewpoints around 70° will help drive heat indices to around the low to mid-90s.

Thunderstorm chances peak Thursday ahead of a cold front. Expect scattered to numerous storms to develop ahead of the seabreeze first as temperatures head to the mid-90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Heat indices should crack 100° in the afternoon, so if you have outdoor plans, be ready to move those indoors. Thunderstorm chances will approach the coast later Thursday evening into the overnight as the front draws closer, and a stronger storm or two can’t be totally discounted. Be alert to quickly changing conditions if your Thursday night includes some out and about time.

The front clears the area Friday. It won’t get cooler, but the dewpoints will be dropping throughout the day, so while highs top out in the mid-90s once again, we shouldn’t see the heat indices we saw on Thursday. A stray storm might be possible in the afternoon, but all in all we should see plenty of sunshine and a rain-free day for many.

Warm and muggy conditions can be expected for the rest of the work week, with some periods of thunderstorms possible especially Wednesday and Thursday.

Tuesday starts around 70° and warms to near 90° in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible, particularly further inland near the I-95 corridor. Not everyone will see storms, and the Charleston metro area in particular should be clear of any unsettled weather by evening in the wake of the seabreeze.

Disturbances aloft working with ample instability will maximize shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. The best risk for storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather isn’t expected, though storms could pack some gusty winds where outflow boundaries collide. Temperatures Wednesday top out once again near 90°, while we turn even warmer on Thursday with highs in the low to mid-90s. Given dewpoints in the low 70s, we could get close to heat indices around 100°.

A front approaches the area on Friday, but drier air will be working its way in, so while temperatures will be similar to Thursday (low to mid-90s), dewpoints will be trending lower. This should also keep the thunderstorm risk a little more at bay, leading into a generally quiet weekend.

Humidity continues its slow climb on Sunday as onshore flow from the Atlantic gradually sends dewpoints higher. Most of us should stay rain-free, though some guidance does show the potential for a few showers to brush coastal areas in the morning. There’s also the risk for a few popup storms generally near I-95 in the afternoon, but the vast majority of the Charleston metro stays rain-free.

Temperatures head to the mid-80s after a mid-60s start. As alluded to earlier, dewpoints will continue to creep upward, generally remaining in the low 60s. This’ll yield relative humidity values generally in the 45-50% range — still far from horrendous, but you might notice a little more sweat.

Welcome to the 2024 hurricane season, everybody. From now through November 30, we’ll keep one eye out on the Atlantic basin for whatever spinny mischief may try to get going. The outlook for this year is for an incredibly busy season thanks to flat-out hot water well into the Atlantic and the expectation that we’ll be in La Niña, which tends to relax shear over the Atlantic and turbocharges the environment for tropical cyclone formation as a result. Of course, the outlook only shows how many storms will probably form; it’s not an indicator of how many of those will make landfall, much less where they may do so. It only takes one storm to make a season memorable for all the wrong reasons, too.

The good news to start the season is that tropical cyclone development isn’t expected for the next seven days. We didn’t even have any preseason activity this year for the first time since 2022. However, as we all know, tropical cyclones can spin up on a dime, so it’s important for us all to be prepared. To paraphrase John Philpot Curran, Thomas Jefferson, and others: the price of living in Charleston is six months of tropical vigilance.