The forecast for the rest of the work week is fairly straightforward: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with temperatures gradually getting warmer (with dewpoints unfortunately following suit) as time goes on. Wednesday will feature one more cool start in the low 60s before warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will mix out to the low 60s, so it won’t feel too bad. They’ll start to climb into the upper 60s on Thursday, though, as highs reach 90° in the afternoon. With the additional humidity, expect heat indices to run a few degrees warmer. Friday continues the warming trend, with highs once again in the low 90s and dewpoints creeping up even further to the 70° mark making for another warm and muggy day.

While the rest of the work week looks to remain rain-free, slight shower and thunderstorm chances will figure into the forecast as we head into the Memorial Day weekend. It doesn’t look like a rainout, but you’ll want to have indoor backup plans in case thunderstorms threaten.

Finally, a programming note: I’m taking the next few days off for some much-needed downtime. Posts will be scattershot at best. As always, the latest NWS forecast is on the chswx.com homepage. See y’all next week!

We have another nice day ahead Tuesday. We’ll start the day in the low 60s once again, with highs topping out in the low-to-mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. It’ll be a touch breezy, with winds out of the northeast once again around 10 MPH, but this is what’s keeping us a little on the cooler side, so we’ll take it.

The only weather concern will be the risk for water levels peaking in minor flood stage again with the Tuesday evening high tide. Minor coastal flooding looks probable between 7-9 PM with water levels peaking around 7.1’. It’ll be enough to cover the more vulnerable roads once again with salt water, but it won’t be a widespread issue.

The weather turns quiet to start the new work week, and we’ll even enjoy slightly lower temperatures and a little less humidity for at least a couple days, too! Monday looks particularly nice with lows in the mid-60s warming to highs in the low 80s in the afternoon under mostly sunny skies. A warming trend commences thereafter, with highs in the mid-80s Tuesday followed by upper 80s Wednesday. 90s return on Thursday, and we stay around there for Friday and the weekend as well…alas, with a bit more summertime humidity in play, too.

Rain chances are quiet through Thursday as ridging aloft rules the roost. This ridging will give way to a few disturbances starting Friday and lasting into the weekend, which will bring some shower and thunderstorm chances primarily in the afternoons. There’s no washouts anywhere that we can see, though — just be sure to have a secondary indoor plan to go along with your outdoor plans as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Sunday. A stalled cold front will cut down on the surface-based instability, so severe weather is not expected, but there’s still quite a bit of moisture around and a mid-level trough hanging right overhead. This will be enough to kick up more showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rain the main concern. The NWS forecast is for generally around 1-2” of rain tomorrow, with isolated spots receiving upwards of 3-4” in the heaviest rains. A flooding threat could result, causing travel to become treacherous at times. We’ll want to keep an eye on this throughout the day — stay tuned.

Temperatures behind the front will top out just around 80° after a muggy start in the upper 60s. Highs will remain tempered by ongoing showers and thunderstorms as well. Stay dry!

After a warm but quiet day Thursday, unsettled weather starts to work back into the area beginning Friday and continuing over the weekend.

We start Friday in the upper 60s to around 70°, warmer toward the beaches. We should see highs peak in the mid-to-upper 80s despite increasing cloud cover ahead of a disturbance that’ll bring some slight rain chances into the area on Friday evening into the overnight. It is also possible we may see a stray shower or storm midday as a decaying thunderstorm complex moves across the area. We’ll monitor precipitation trends throughout the day; keep rain gear handy just in case.

Shower and thunderstorm chances tick up for Saturday. It doesn’t look like an all-day rainout, but there will be periods of unsettled weather throughout the day, so be on guard for outdoor activities having to come indoors due to lightning and maybe even a strong to severe storm or two with damaging wind gusts the main concern. Temperatures will stay warm and muggy: Expect lows in the low 70s to yield to highs in the mid-to-upper 80s once again in the afternoon.

A front gets through late Saturday, and that leaves us with a slightly cooler Sunday with highs reaching just the low-to-mid-80s. However, periods of showers and thunderstorms will still be possible, and a couple of those could still be on the strong side. Keep rain plans front-of-mind for your Sunday as well.

Thursday brings us a brief respite from the periods of storms that have punctuated the past few days as high pressure builds in. Temperatures start in the mid-60s, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will run a couple degrees cooler than they did on Wednesday, so it won’t feel quite as humid.

Expect generally quieter but warmer conditions for the second half of the work week as high pressure gives us a respite before another unsettled period commences Saturday.

Wednesday will feature a mix of clouds and sun that’ll help drive temperatures into the mid-80s in the afternoon after a start near 70°. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and early evening as a weak front moves through the area, and a strong wind gust or two can’t be ruled out in the stronger storms.

High pressure is the main weather driver on Thursday, yielding a fairly quiet and warm day across the Lowcountry. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s, warming to the mid-to-upper 80s in the afternoon with just some passing clouds from time to time. Friday should remain mostly quiet with temperatures once again starting in the mid-60s before yielding to mid-80s in the afternoon. High pressure will be departing ahead of our next disturbance, and there’s still some question as to how soon showers and thunderstorms arrive in the area as a result. So, for now, there’s a slight chance we could see some activity Friday night, but it’s more likely that unsettled weather holds off until Saturday.

Tuesday figures to be a fairly active weather day with a couple rounds of storms expected. The first one will be ongoing as we wake up and commute; periods of heavy rain will be possible within thunderstorms, so be ready for delays in the morning. One other twist will be in the form of a warm front that will lift north across the area as we get into mid-morning; this could enhance low-level shear enough where the environment might support a brief tornado (though this risk is fairly low all things considered). The first round of showers and thunderstorms should get offshore roughly around midday, and many of us will catch a break from the rain early Tuesday afternoon. Heading into mid-to-late afternoon, expect additional scattered showers and thunderstorms to fire across the area. There will be a damaging wind risk within the strongest storms, so you’ll want to keep an ear out for possible weather warnings. Storms will be possible well into the evening before chances head back down around midnight or so.

Temperatures Tuesday start on the warm and muggy side in the mid-to-upper 60s. Expect highs to top out in the low 80s given the expected showers, thunderstorms, and overall cloud cover.

I hope everyone got to enjoy this fine Mother’s Day weekend, because we are getting back to storms for a good chunk of the upcoming week. We start Monday on a dry note, but shower and storm chances will increase as a disturbance moves across the Gulf Coast states toward the East Coast. We start Monday in the low 60s, warming to the low 80s in the afternoon with clouds on the increase ahead of shower and thunderstorm chances later in the day.

The latest forecast update from the Space Weather Prediction Center calls for G4-G5 geomagnetic storming overnight, with the peak of the activity expected right around sunrise (alas) as another round of G5 conditions is expected.

As of 9PM, the geomagnetic storm index is, well…G-Zero. It is expected to ramp back up, but weaker than last night when the storm remained at G5 levels for much of the evening. This will mean that it’ll be a later night for aurora-watchers here in the Lowcountry, and that y’all will indeed have your best chance at seeing something if you are in a dark place and using a camera. We just cannot expect that we will see aurora to the degree we saw it last night, and it may not even be close. And by the time the expected G5 conditions kick in, we’ll be getting into dawn, and that will end the chance for us to see aurora here. Sunday evening’s forecast right now doesn’t look too favorable here with generally G3 conditions at best as the storm dies down, so if we’re going to see any additional aurora, it’s going to have to be tonight.

If you are going to stay out a while tonight, pack a hoodie — lows dip into the upper 50s under clear skies. Good luck, aurora-hunters!