We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.

We may be past the autumnal equinox, but Monday clearly looks to have missed the memo as it brings back a bit of summer before temperatures fall back below normal later this week. Dry air will keep skies mostly clear, and a bit of shortwave ridging will help highs top out around 90° in the afternoon after starting the day in the upper 60s to around 70° at the coast. From there, though, changes will be afoot as high pressure anchored in New England starts to wedge into the area beginning Tuesday. This will drive high temperatures from the mid-80s on Tuesday to the low 80s by Wednesday, with below-normal highs lasting into the weekend. A trough developing offshore will help keep shower chances in play for much of the week, primarily in the afternoons, though it’s worth noting that we’ll likely get some sunshine in as well at times. Northeasterly winds will turn breezy as we head into the second part of the week, and this could drive some coastal flooding concerns through the weekend. Some of the guidance is spitting out some fairly high tides, but it’s also worth noting that this guidance isn’t really that awesome and often goes to extremes. Keep an ear out for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

We’ll continue to deal with the fringes of Tropical Storm Ophelia on Saturday, though the weather will be gradually improving as time goes on. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and cloud cover, and northwest to westerly winds will still be a little elevated. However, as the day goes on and Ophelia moves further away, we’ll see those winds slacken and some of that cloud cover begin to break a little. The cooler and drier air wrapping around Ophelia will keep temperatures on the low side, with highs topping out in the upper 70s after a comfortable start in the low 60s.

Ophelia will have exited the weather picture on Sunday, and we’ll see much more sunshine and, overall, a warmer day as a result. Expect highs to top out in the mid-to-upper 80s after starting the day in the mid-60s. Winds will have backed down to generally light speeds, too, making for a nice day to get outside a bit. Try to take advantage, if you can!

The weather for Friday and at least the first part of the weekend will be dictated in part by Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, which is forecast to become a tropical storm — probably named Ophelia unless an Atlantic wave develops faster than forecast — as it approaches the NC Outer Banks this weekend. We will stay well on the western periphery of the storm and only feel the occasional shower on Friday, with a gusty breeze for most of us. It will be a rough go at the beaches — probably not the best day to go with gusty winds, high surf, rip currents, and some afternoon coastal flooding around the 1:45 PM high tide. Erosion is certainly not out of the question as well. Highs on Friday top out in the low 80s.

Showers depart by Saturday as maybe-Ophelia moves northward away from us. We start the day in the low 60s with temperatures heading into the low 80s once again under mostly cloudy skies. We should see some breaks in the clouds develop particularly as we get later into the day, though. Winds will remain somewhat breezy, but not to the degree we’ll see Friday.

Sunday is the pick day of the weekend as far as outside stuff goes; lows in the low 60s give way to highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. Another plus to Sunday: Winds will have tapered off considerably, too, as maybe-Ophelia loses tropical characteristics around the Delmarva Peninsula.

Rain-free conditions come to an end Thursday as we should see some scattered showers from time to time courtesy of developing low pressure well offshore. We’ll get off to a much warmer start than the previous couple days, with lows across the metro in the upper 60s to around 70°. Expect a scattering of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, coming ashore within onshore flow. A few heavy downpours can’t be ruled out. Highs top out in the low 80s.

We’ll get close to coastal flood stage with Thursday afternoon’s high tide, forecast to peak around 12:41 PM, thanks to the increasing northeasterly flow, which tends to pile water up quite efficiently, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that in case some salt water works into the area.

The rest of the work week will turn somewhat unsettled as a coastal low spins up later this week into the weekend. Wednesday still looks good, though, with seasonable warmth in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. We could see a couple isolated thunderstorms pop on Thursday as onshore flow becomes a little more pronounced as a coastal trough sharpens nearby. Temperatures will start in the mid-60s and top out in the mid-80s in the afternoon.

Friday is when we should start to see winds begin to kick up at the coast as the pressure gradient between low pressure developing offshore and high pressure over New England begins to tighten. The stronger onshore flow as well as a scattering of showers and a few thunderstorms will keep highs in the mid-to-upper 70s. Yes, there is still a low chance that this system could attain some tropical characteristics, but it’s not something I’d be overly concerned with. Could make for a less-than-ideal weekend at the beaches, though. Stay tuned to forecast updates as we get closer to the weekend.

We have another pretty day ahead for Tuesday (weather-wise, anyway). Temperatures start out quite nicely, with much of the metro starting in the low 60s. Some spots further inland could bottom out in the upper 50s, while places closer to the coast will generally feel warmer lows in the upper 60s. Temperatures head to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will mix down to the mid-50s except perhaps at the immediate coast, sending relative humidity values south of 40% once more. Overall, no complaints in the weather department.

After an incredibly soggy day across the Charleston metro, featuring another round of downtown flooding and rain totals exceeding 4″ in some spots, we get a couple days to dry out to start the work week. We start Monday in the mid-to-upper 60s and top out in the mid-80s as dewpoints fall into the low 60s throughout the day, which will make it an awfully nice day for an emotional support lunch outdoors as we head back to work. We keep the vibe going into Tuesday, with a somewhat cooler start thanks to the lower dewpoints in the area. A few more clouds are expected, but otherwise expect another nice day. Winds go northeasterly on Wednesday and could bring a few showers or storms into the area, but otherwise, much of us should stay rain-free.

Things get weird starting Thursday and heading into the weekend. Models are in good agreement that low pressure will spin up nearby in something resembling more of a nor’easter setup than anything else. However, if it stays over water (which is still plenty warm), there’s a chance it could try to acquire some tropical characteristics. Right now, the forecast is for some periods of rain and some gusty winds particularly near the beaches, and regardless of whether the storm is cold-core, warm-core, or hybrid, the impacts should be relatively straightforward. Obviously, we’ll keep an eye on this, but for now, not seeing anything extraordinary here. Stay tuned to forecast updates in the meantime.

After a fairly glorious day of weather Saturday, Sunday will make a 180° right back into more unsettled territory as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a cold front. A wave of low pressure will develop back in Georgia, helping to drag a warm front across the area in the morning. We’ll see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity possibly as soon as mid-morning, but the most likely time for rain will be in the afternoon hours through about sunset. Heavy rain will be possible, with the potential for rainfall in the 2-3″ range for some locations. Isolated flooding will be possible as a result. Additionally, the aforementioned surface low pressure looks to track inland of the area, and could enhance some low-level shear. If instability can develop — and that is a big if — a strong to severe storm or two will be possible, and there may even be a couple rotating cells. We’ll keep an eye on this, but the risk for severe storms generally remains low especially given the rain-cooled air. We start the day in the upper 60s, but highs only top out in the low 80s given the risk for widespread rain in the afternoon.

After this passes, it looks like we get off to a solid start to the work week (weather-wise, anyway), with mid-80s highs, comfortable low 60s dewpoints, and ample sunshine.

Well, if you’re going to do outside stuff this weekend, Saturday’s probably the day to do it. It’s going to be a gorgeous day — low humidity, plenty of sunshine, and comfortably warm temperatures in the mid-80s after starting out in the upper 50s to low 60s across the metro.

High pressure will slip offshore late Saturday, and dewpoints will climb back into the 70s for Sunday ahead of a cold front. Expect showers and thunderstorms to become somewhat numerous Sunday afternoon into the evening as the front approaches the area. We could see some enhanced rainfall, too, courtesy of a wave of low pressure moving along the front. Temperatures should stay in the low 80s with the expected showers and thunderstorms. Generally, expect .5-1″ of rain across the area, with locally heavier amounts. Severe weather is not expected.