Hot weather continues to start the week before yielding to more numerous showers and thunderstorms starting mid-week. (It’ll still be hot and humid, though.)

The weather story of this Fourth of July holiday looks to be the first big heat episode of the season across the Lowcountry. After highs in the low 90s on Saturday, air temperatures should top out in the mid-90s on Sunday, with heat indices running above 105° in the afternoon thanks to dewpoints in the low 70s. There will be a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two on the inland-advancing seabreeze in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us will stay rain-free — and hot.

The weekend forecast basically screams “first weekend of July in Charleston.” Morning lows bottom out in the mid-70s, while highs reach the mid-90s each afternoon with a few showers and storms possible along and ahead of the seabreeze. Humidity will be on the increase throughout the weekend. Heat indices on Saturday top out around 100-101°. On Sunday, the dewpoints head into the mid-70s and sends the heat index to around 106° in the afternoon. By virtue of it being July 2nd, there will not be a heat advisory as the criteria heads up to 110° on July 1, but anything past 105° is dangerous heat, and you should take the appropriate precautions.

The only potential fly in the ointment could arrive late Saturday/early Sunday as a thunderstorm complex rounding a ridge of high pressure approaches the area. It should be weakening, but a couple models suggest that it could hang on to bring some overnight/early morning rain. These are hard to pin down beyond a day or so, so stay tuned to forecast updates. For now, though, the going forecast for isolated PM thunderstorms looks solid.

Here comes real summer: Humidity begins to increase Friday as winds go more southerly at the surface, and will continue to build heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday top out in the mid-90s once again, and with dewpoints just shy of 70°, expect heat indices to approach 100° in the afternoon. We could see a shower or storm in the afternoon to evening hours along the seabreeze (and possibly as a result of a decaying convective complex headed toward the Carolinas), but most of us should stay dry.

Similar weather is on tap for Saturday, but with dewpoints a few clicks higher, expect heat indices to top out around 102° or so. Once again, we could see a shower or storm in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us should get away with the day rain-free.

By Sunday, dewpoints will top out in the mid-70s, and this combined with solid mid-90s temperatures could drive heat indices near 110°, which is the Heat Advisory threshold after July 1. A stray shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but the odds favor dry weather for now. We’ll want to keep an eye on potential thunderstorm complexes rounding a ridge of high pressure that’ll be making gradual eastward progress toward the area, so stay tuned to forecast updates as these are hard to catch beyond a day or so.

After the first 95° reading of the year on Wednesday, we’ll likely repeat that on Thursday, with plenty more 90s to come as we head into the holiday weekend. Downslope flow should once again keep dewpoints in the mid-60s, thus keeping heat indices in check as well. Expect partly cloudy skies — and as always, a shower can’t be totally discounted — but overall expect a rain-free, warm day.

The 90s stick around for the rest of the week with quite a bit of sunshine as high pressure at the surface and aloft builds into the area. Downslope winds will mix dewpoints out into the 60s each day, so it won’t be as humid as it could be in late June. The heat index on Wednesday, in fact, should only top out a degree or two warmer than the high. Air temperatures will top out again in the mid-90s on Thursday, but a little more humidity will make it feel closer to 97-98°. By Friday, winds will go more southerly and dewpoints will stay more steady in the low 70s, which should yield heat indices around 100°. Heat will continue to accelerate heading into the weekend, with the first Heat Advisories of the season possible as we bring in July. Hydrate regularly and be sure to use sunscreen if you’re spending time outside, especially during the peak of the afternoon.

A cold front will move through and stall out nearby on Tuesday, allowing drier air to mix into the area. This will largely suppress cloud cover and will help drive temperatures to the mid-90s in the afternoon; fortunately, the drier air mixing in will also keep dewpoints reasonably in check, so heat indices will only top out around 96°-98° or so.

A few thunderstorms will still be possible very early Tuesday morning, but widespread severe weather does not look to be an issue. Still, there’s a small chance you could be woken up overnight, especially the further north you go.

We open the week with the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms, and get much warmer thereafter as we say goodbye to June and welcome in July, with the first heat advisories of the season possible by the weekend.

Sunday will be a much more traditional warm and somewhat muggy June day across the Lowcountry than we’ve felt for much of the month, really. We start the day in the low 70s before temperatures warm into the low 90s under mostly sunny skies. Kick in some humidity and it’ll feel closer to 95° in the afternoon at peak heating. It looks quite unlikely that a shower or storm will develop, though it can never be totally ruled out in the summertime. Suspect it’ll be another day full of Instagram stories from the beach. Use that sunscreen as the UV index will be a solid 10.

Weather much more becoming of June arrives this weekend as the upper low continues to pull away and we get a break in the action. We return to the 90s each day this weekend, with only a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. Sunday could be even warmer, with highs approaching the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies. While a stray storm can never be totally ruled out, it’s looking like the vast, vast majority of us get Sunday in rain-free — some welcome drying out time after the soggy week that was.