Heat and humidity will continue to rule the roost for Tuesday and for the next couple days as we stay within southerly flow at the surface and aloft, keeping the moisture pump moving right along. This will also lead to periods of storms. Guidance is hinting at another round of morning showers and storms near the coast as the land breeze develops before afternoon storms develop further inland. Coverage will generally be scattered in nature, and not all of us will see rain as a result. Highs top out in the low 90s after a start in the upper 70s; expect heat indices to get close to advisory criteria in the afternoon, perhaps approaching 107°.

I’m back…just in time for more rain. Showers and thunderstorms figure prominently in the forecast this week, especially in the afternoons and evenings, as the pattern generally keeps a trough in the east and a ridge in the west. This keeps us within southwest flow aloft, which keeps disturbances rippling through the area at times and the flow of moisture open from the Gulf. This, in turn, translates to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening as daytime heating kicks in and the sea breeze makes its inland trek.

After reaching 99° at the airport on Sunday — the warmest it’s been since May 29, 2019, when it was 101° in the midst of the Memorial Day heat wave — air temperatures make another run for the upper 90s on Monday after another steamy start in the upper 70s to low 80s as a deep-layer ridge stays in place. Given the moisture in place, heat indices should once again reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (108°) in many spots, especially in the Highway 17 corridor. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again Monday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the seabreeze, but with the ridge in place, coverage will be scattered at best. Much like Sunday, we can’t rule out a stronger storm where one does fire if it can realize the considerable instability that will be available to it. Additionally, storm motions should again be fairly slow, and with a juicy atmosphere, some localized flooding will be possible if a storm does fire and hang out for a bit.