Charleston Weather Blog

Forecast explanations, atmospheric science, and other cool weather-related stuff for Charleston, SC

Friday & the weekend: Unsettled start as heat builds back up

/ July 11, 2024 at 10:39 PM

We’ve got a couple fairly active weather days ahead as low pressure nudges a front back inland across the area starting Friday. Then, heat really starts to build in on Sunday, with a stretch of heat indices well into Advisory territory expected to last several days.

Guidance suggests we could get off to an early start to spotty showers and thunderstorms on Friday before coverage becomes more widespread as the seabreeze kicks in later in the day. Temperatures start in the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest near the coast, warming to the low 90s in the afternoon in-between storms. Factor in dewpoints in the mid-70s and it’ll feel closer to the low 100s. Many of us should see some decent rain; an inch of rain looks to be a good bet in many spots, with some spots receiving upwards of 2″ (and maybe even a little more where locally heavy rainfall occurs). Severe weather is not expected, but minor flooding could occur where storms train. As the sun heads down, expect coverage to decrease.

Storms will continue into Saturday as energy aloft and low pressure at the surface affect the area for one more day. They’ll be a little more scattered in nature, though many of us could see some measurable rainfall once again. After another upper 70s to low 80s start, temperatures head back into the mid-90s in the afternoon with some spots flirting with Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices 108°+) in between storms.

Sunday will turn even hotter, with temperatures heading into the upper 90s in the afternoon. Heat indices should venture into Heat Advisory territory, with fewer storms to cool some of us off as the pattern shifts back to a more traditional summertime setup with the Bermuda high to our east and the seabreeze pushing inland to kick off showers and storms. You’ll want to make sure you’re taking heat precautions if you find yourself out and about during the height of the afternoon. The hot temperatures look to stick around into at least the first part of next week, too, with heat indices perhaps approaching 110° at times with scattered afternoon storms to cool a few of us off.

Thursday: Spotty evening storms, still rather warm

/ July 10, 2024 at 7:57 PM

A stalling front will briefly usher in slightly drier air on Thursday, helping to keep heat indices below heat advisory levels, but it’ll still be plenty warm with air temperatures peaking in the mid-90s and heat indices in the mid-100s expected. We should still see a few showers and thunderstorms pop in the afternoon, but like Wednesday, coverage should be reasonably limited.

Read more »

Rest of the work week: Occasionally stormy pattern continues

/ July 9, 2024 at 10:33 PM

Another hot and potentially stormy day is on tap for Wednesday. We’ll start the day in steamy fashion once more, with upper 70s to start the day away from the even warmer coastline. We’ll warm to the mid-90s in the afternoon, and this combined with mid-to-upper-70s dewpoints will yield heat indices in Heat Advisory territory once again. We should see showers and thunderstorms initiate once again in the afternoon along and ahead of the seabreeze, though it’s worth noting that this evening’s convection-allowing models are showing a bit of a quieter day. We’ll see, though, as it’s often the small-scale influences that can help to drive development this time of year.

Thursday should be a little more active as a front stalls out to our west and a mid-level disturbance approaches from the east. Before storms fire, though, it’s another day in Mother Nature’s sauna with air temperatures in the low to mid-90s feeling like the mid-100s, perhaps flirting with Heat Advisory levels once again. Storms should be generally scattered to widespread in the afternoon and evening with heavy rain once again a possibility.

The aforementioned disturbance interacts with the stalled front to keep showers and storms in the area for a good bit of Friday, with coverage peaking in the climatologically favored afternoon and evening. This will keep temperatures from getting too far out of hand, with highs potentially falling short of 90° for the first time in over a week, though it’ll still be plenty warm. Heavy rain and maybe a strong storm or two remain the main concerns as we sit in a rather moisture-rich environment ahead of the stalled front to the west.