A storm system will approach the area overnight into Sunday, bringing another round of rain chances to the area primarily tomorrow morning into early afternoon.

We get a good break from the gray skies on Saturday as we find ourselves between storm systems. The lull will bring us a nice, seasonable day, with lows in the mid-40s followed by highs in the mid-to-upper 60s, right in the ballpark for where we should be at this point in the year. The only fly in the ointment will be the risk for minor to moderate salt water flooding around the 9:29am high tide.

Clouds build back up Saturday evening as the next storm system makes its approach to give us another round of rain for Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area throughout the day, allowing temperatures to top out in the mid-70s despite showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two in the area. The best chance for rain will be in the morning through the early afternoon hours. Expect the front to get through by evening, which will shut off the rain and dry out the air. Winds will be a little breezy with sustained winds approaching 20 MPH with higher gusts.

Sunday will mark the end of this king tide cycle, with minor flooding possible with the 10:28am high tide. A few downpours will be possible with the storm system moving by on Sunday, and we’ll want to watch for any to coincide with the mid-morning high tide.

Improving weather returns to start the new work week; the next shower chance will be mid-week, followed by seasonable temperatures to start December.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving Day! The next few days will be a “sunshine sandwich” — overcast and rain, followed by mostly sunny skies, followed by another round of overcast and rain. We will also continue to contend with coastal flooding with the morning high tides through Sunday.

We have a relatively mild Thanksgiving Day ahead as temperatures start in the mid-50s, about 10° above normal for this point in the year. Pesky cloud cover will remain pesky with the coastal trough lingering offshore, and a few showers will be possible before rain chances increase further after sunset as more moisture makes its way ashore. Overall, don’t be surprised to dodge a shower or two, but I suspect that a lot of us get a majority of Thanksgiving in rain-free.

Friday & the weekend: Periods of showers with a nice day in the middle

Shower chances will peak on Friday as a warm front moves by followed by a cold front moving in from the north overnight. Lows will approach 15° above normal with cloud cover and a moist airmass in place. The warm front will help temperatures reach the low 70s in the afternoon despite shower activity that’s expected to be in the area. (A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, either.) These showers will work their way out of here overnight with the aforementioned cold frontal passage.

Saturday should remain mostly dry with a mix of clouds and sun remaining in place. Temperatures will once again bottom out around 10°+ degrees above normal for another mild start followed by highs running right around 70° in the afternoon.

Showers return to the forecast Sunday as another cold front moves by the area. Once again, highs in the low 70s will follow a seasonably mild start to the day in the mid-50s. We should see showers begin to decrease later in the afternoon, paving the way for a cooler, drier, and sunnier Monday.

Coastal flooding remains a concern with morning high tides

This morning’s high tide peaked around 7.02′, which scraped minor coastal flooding thresholds. Expect additional rounds of minor to moderate salt water flooding around times of the morning’s high tide through Thanksgiving and the long weekend. High tide on Thanksgiving morning is forecast to peak around 7.5′, or moderate flood stage, around 7:43am. We should see similar results from Friday morning’s high tide which is predicted to peak around 8:34am. Minor coastal flooding is forecast for Saturday morning’s 9:29am high tide, while guidance indicates another round of flooding will be possible for Sunday morning’s 10:28am high tide. Stay tuned for Coastal Flood Advisories from the National Weather Service.

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Temperatures will continue on a warming trend as we head through Thanksgiving into the weekend. We’ll see periods of unsettled weather, too, but nothing too heinous to write home about.

Nicole’s roughest weather arrives tomorrow and will last through Friday afternoon before improvement sets in just in time for the weekend. Heavy rain, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and a few tornadoes are all on the table with this event. Here’s what to expect.

We have a busy few days of weather ahead of us as Tropical Storm Nicole makes landfall on Florida, perhaps as a hurricane, and then turns north and northeast to strafe the Carolinas with heavy rain, wind, and maybe even some severe weather.

An unsettled week lies ahead, particularly for those of us near the coast, as a possible tropical or hybrid cyclone develops and moves toward Florida around mid-week before recurving with a cold front later in the week. After that front gets through, below-normal temperatures will arrive by Sunday.

Even warmer weather is in the forecast for Friday and the weekend as high pressure at the surface slips offshore and winds turn southerly. Friday will still have a semblance of a fall feel, at least in the morning, as lows dip into the upper 50s ahead of highs in the upper 70s in the afternoon.

Thereafter, a more southerly component of wind begins to kick in, and we will begin to see temperatures (and humidity) kick up another notch. Saturday and Sunday will both start in the mid-60s — some 15° above normal — with highs reaching into the low 80s each afternoon. We’ll get close to record high minimums this weekend, but don’t anticipate breaching those. (The record high minimum for Saturday is 69°, and for Sunday is 71°, both set in 2003 during a record warm stretch.) Rainfall should be largely a non-issue, though a shower or two can’t be ruled out from time to time especially later this weekend as some upper energy interacts with a surface trough to our west.

The upcoming full moon and continued onshore flow will contribute to minor coastal flooding around times of high tide beginning Friday evening. More substantial coastal flooding will be possible as we head into next week as we watch for the potential for low pressure to develop in the western Atlantic, cranking the pressure gradient and northeasterly winds. This low could drive rain chances up in our neck of the woods as well, but the forecast extent of the rain still needs some finesse. Stay tuned this weekend for updates.

If you’re looking for a return to that fall feel that we had for a couple weeks in October, you may be waiting a little while: above-normal temperatures are favored through mid-month in the eastern third of the continental US. There are some signs that the pattern might change as we head toward Thanksgiving and beyond — stay tuned, though.

Weather’s looking good for Thursday as high pressure at the surface and aloft are in control. It will remain mild for November with temperatures running a few degrees above normal, especially in the morning. Expect plenty of sunshine with just a few passing clouds from time to time. If there’s one thing that might throw a fly in the ointment for an outdoors lunch, it’s that there will be a bit of a northeasterly breeze. Pin your napkins down appropriately and otherwise enjoy!

The only other weather concern will be the risk for some minor coastal flooding around the 5PM high tide. This could have commute impacts around Lockwood Dr. and the Citadel as salt water spills onto Fishburne and Hagood. If this is part of your evening commute, consider another route to avoid salt water splashing onto your car’s undercarriage.