We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.
More showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday afternoon as a warm and humid atmosphere remains firmly in place across the area. Temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-90s before storms start to kick up after convective temperatures are met. Shear is weak and instability is about average, but there will still be plenty of moisture to wring out of the atmosphere, so expect frequent lightning and heavy rain with the stronger of Thursday’s thunderstorms. There will be the risk for storms to anchor a bit and rain a lot in one spot as westerly flow aloft fights against an inland-moving seabreeze. (Daniel Island knows all about this, with several stations on the island recording 2-3″ of rain in a couple hours’ time.) A damaging wet microburst or two can’t be discounted either especially near where outflow boundaries collide. Once again, keep an ear out for warnings and take it easy on the commute.
One more round of coastal flooding is possible with the Thursday night high tide at 11:43 PM. Expect water levels between 7.1-7.3′ to produce some minor flooding generally between 9 PM-1 AM. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be issued. From there, the astronomical influences of the full moon will wane further, and while water levels may get close on Friday night, we should be done with this round of king tides.
Hot weather continues to start the week before yielding to more numerous showers and thunderstorms starting mid-week. (It’ll still be hot and humid, though.)
The weather story of this Fourth of July holiday looks to be the first big heat episode of the season across the Lowcountry. After highs in the low 90s on Saturday, air temperatures should top out in the mid-90s on Sunday, with heat indices running above 105° in the afternoon thanks to dewpoints in the low 70s. There will be a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two on the inland-advancing seabreeze in the afternoon, but the vast majority of us will stay rain-free — and hot.
The weekend forecast basically screams “first weekend of July in Charleston.” Morning lows bottom out in the mid-70s, while highs reach the mid-90s each afternoon with a few showers and storms possible along and ahead of the seabreeze. Humidity will be on the increase throughout the weekend. Heat indices on Saturday top out around 100-101°. On Sunday, the dewpoints head into the mid-70s and sends the heat index to around 106° in the afternoon. By virtue of it being July 2nd, there will not be a heat advisory as the criteria heads up to 110° on July 1, but anything past 105° is dangerous heat, and you should take the appropriate precautions.
The only potential fly in the ointment could arrive late Saturday/early Sunday as a thunderstorm complex rounding a ridge of high pressure approaches the area. It should be weakening, but a couple models suggest that it could hang on to bring some overnight/early morning rain. These are hard to pin down beyond a day or so, so stay tuned to forecast updates. For now, though, the going forecast for isolated PM thunderstorms looks solid.
A cold front will move through the area early Sunday, which will cap highs in the low 80s — well below normal for early June in the Lowcountry. We’ll see a mix of sun and clouds as high pressure wedges in from the northeast, but rain is not expected with the drier airmass filtering in. It’ll be a little breezy — gusts 20-30 MPH will be possible out of the northeast, especially at the beaches and on elevated surfaces such as the bridges.
The main weather concern for Sunday revolves around coastal flooding. A water level over 8′ is expected once again with Sunday evening’s high tide, which peaks around 9:10 PM. This will produce major coastal flooding once again, closing numerous roads in downtown Charleston and potentially causing disruptions on barrier islands as well. This degree of flooding is extraordinarily rare for June, with only three major flooding events on record — once in 1982 and twice in 2009. Be ready to use alternate routes if you are out and about Sunday evening.
This weekend’s forecast is looking pretty good by 2023 standards, and will certainly be a far cry from what last weekend looked like. Saturday will be the warmer of the two days with highs topping out in the mid-80s in the afternoon. A few showers will be possible along the seabreeze, but those should be few and far between. A cold front moves by overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning, which will usher in some cooler and drier air that’ll keep highs capped around 80° in the afternoon under a mix of sun and clouds. Watch for some breezy conditions in the wake of the front on Sunday, with gusts near 30 MPH possible particularly on elevated surfaces and at the beaches.
After an unusually chilly weekend, we’ve got a really nice start to the new work week coming up as cool, dry high pressure continues its hold on the area. We’ll still see a series of chilly starts through Wednesday, with lows in the mid-40s each morning. Highs gradually moderate through the period, peaking in the upper 60s on Monday, low 70s on Tuesday, and mid-70s on Wednesday under plenty of sunshine. Winds on Monday will still be a little on the breezy side, with occasional gusts to 30 MPH possible.
Thursday will represent one more rain-free day with a little warmer weather as highs peak near 80°. Low pressure advancing northward out of the Gulf will help usher showers and maybe a few thunderstorms into the area on Friday (though a total rainout looks unlikely). The overall airmass turns warmer, with lows in the 60s Friday morning offering a sharp departure from the last several days. Highs top out in the mid-70s with shower and thunderstorm activity likely tempering warmth. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm remain possible Saturday into Sunday, though with far less coverage than Friday. Highs top out in the low 80s each day this weekend after starting in the mid-60s.
After a chilly, raw day across the area in which we tied the record cold high temperature, the rain comes to an end Sunday morning and we begin to dry out. Cloud cover will hang tough for much of the day, though we should get some peeks of sun late. One of the main weather stories for this Easter Sunday will be the continued chill; high pressure continuing to wedge into the area will keep highs in the mid-50s after starting in the mid-40s. If the NWS forecast high of 57° verifies, it’d be the second consecutive day tying a record cold high temperature.
The second weather story of the day will be the gusty northeast winds and the potential for major coastal flooding with the late night high tide. Winds will be brisk, sustained 15-20 MPH with gusts approaching 30 MPH at times, with even higher gusts possible at the coast and on the higher bridges. The persistent northeasterly wind will also drive tidal departures up over 2′, potentially pushing the 11:04 PM high tide up to around 8′, which is major coastal flooding territory. Fortunately, we’ll be done with the rain, and that will keep the flooding issues confined largely to tidal areas. Still, numerous road closures are possible late Sunday, and you’ll want to keep that in mind if you have late-day travel plans around downtown.
Well, this certainly will not go down as one of the better Easter weekends, weather-wise, as high pressure wedging into the area keeps temperatures well below normal for this point in the year while also keeping showers a prevalent part of the forecast. Don’t count on much, if any, sun on Saturday as scattered showers in the morning and early afternoon turn more steady heading into the later afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures really won’t move much — we’ll start around 51° and only head up to about 54° as a chilly northeast breeze and the rain reinforce the cold air damming regime that’ll be in place.
Showers will continue well into Sunday, but will gradually become a little more scattered as the plume of deeper moisture shunts offshore. The wedge will remain in place, but a somewhat thinner cloud deck and less rainfall should allow temperatures a fighting chance to approach 60° in the afternoon. It’ll be quite breezy — winds will generally run about 20 MPH with higher gusts, especially near the coast. Regardless, you’ll need rain gear for Easter sunrise services.
