High pressure to our north will be shifting offshore as Tuesday goes on ahead of a storm system moving through the Ohio Valley, allowing a warm front to push northward into the area during the day. Some of us may see a few showers as this warm front moves northward, especially later in the morning and closer to the coast. They’ll be relatively short-lived, clearing the area during the afternoon, and won’t amount to too terribly much rain for those who see any of it at all. It’ll be a mild day once again, with lows in the mid-50s warming to the mid-70s in the afternoon in the wake of the warm front.
Warm temperatures continue for Thursday, though a nearby front and some more cloud cover will likely preclude temperatures from getting too out of hand. Wednesday’s highs were close to records for the date: 82° at the airport was just a degree shy of the record of 83° set in 1942, while 80° downtown missed the record of 82° set there in 1958. Depending on where the front hangs up, we may yet make another run at records, but the preponderance of the evidence suggests that we’re going to stay in the mid-to-upper 70s on Thursday. The front won’t come with much moisture, so an uptick in cloud cover is about it.
After a near-normal day of temperatures on Monday, we’ll look for a similar performance on Tuesday. Temperatures will start in the mid-40s across much of the area (a little warmer near the coast, a little cooler further inland), and highs will peak around 70° in the afternoon with mostly sunny skies remaining the rule. Winds will be going more southerly during the day as surface high pressure begins to shift offshore. This will set us up for a few days of rather warm temperatures starting Wednesday.
A highly anomalous Arctic intrusion is arriving this evening, evidenced by gusty winds 25-30 MPH and plummeting dewpoints across much of the area as of 7PM Monday. Further north, some flurries were reported in the Charlotte metro area and as far south as Hartsville, SC. Here at home, the first freeze of the season will occur for the vast majority of us; ensure pets and plants are protected and safe tonight as temperatures will fall into the 20s. Wind chills could drop into the upper teens, prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for Dorchester County. (Layer up!) Despite full sunshine, temperatures may not crack 50° in the afternoon, owing to the strength of the Arctic blast. If these forecasts verify, new record low and record cold high temperatures will be set at the airport: the record low for November 11 is 29°, set in 1943, while the record cold high temperature is 54°, set in 1968.
Plenty of sunshine will continue on Tuesday as high pressure builds across the area from the west, keeping northeasterly flow in place which will keep temperatures on the cool side of normal and also help to elevate the morning high tide into minor flood stage. We’ll start the day in the mid-40s, warming to the upper 60s in the afternoon, which will feel quite comfortable with the sun out. The aforementioned northeasterly winds will run generally in the 5-10 MPH range, which will be enough of a breeze to make it feel a little cooler in the shade.
As mentioned, some coastal flooding will be possible between 5-8am as water levels peak in minor flood stage (7-7.2′) with the 6:11 am high tide. This may have limited impacts in the most vulnerable areas of the peninsula, primarily around the Hagood/Fishburne intersection as well as possibly on parts of Lockwood. Be ready to reroute around any closures.
A cold front will swing through overnight, scouring out the clouds and ushering in drier high pressure behind it. It’ll be great to see the sun, which will make highs in the mid-60s feel quite nice. We’ll have a bit of a westerly breeze in the wake of the front, so keep that in mind if you have any plans to dine al fresco, but otherwise, it looks like a really good day of weather across the Lowcountry.
More overcast is in store for Tuesday despite low pressure departing the area. The overcast combined with gusty northerly winds and a few lingering showers will keep us on the cool side in the afternoon, with highs only peaking in the low 60s after a start to the day in the mid-50s. Showers should taper off by evening, with a rain-free period expected until Wednesday afternoon.
Mother Nature’s apology for the nor’easter continues Thursday with another day of comfortable temperatures and plenty of sunshine expected. A weak, dry front moves by early in the day, and so we should see temperatures start and peak a little cooler than we did on Wednesday. Expect lows in the mid-to-upper 50s warming to the mid-70s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will swing around to the northeast and pick up a little bit, and this could drive some minor coastal flooding with the early evening high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is possible, but impacts beyond the most vulnerable locations downtown will be minimal.
A cold front will pass through overnight, bringing with it a chance for showers and maybe even some thunder as it moves by. Behind that front will be a significant airmass change as high pressure builds southwestward into the area. We’ll wake up to lows in the mid-60s, with temperatures climbing just to the mid-70s under mostly cloudy skies. It’s going to be quite breezy, with northeasterly winds gusting 30-35 MPH at times, especially near the coast.
The strong northeasterly winds will drive water levels in the harbor quite high on top of already high astronomical tides, especially during the day on Thursday (and for the next several days). High tide will peak around 10:06 AM around 8-8.2′ MLLW, which is comfortably in the major flooding threshold. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect and will likely be upgraded to a warning if trends continue overnight. Be ready for numerous road closures in downtown Charleston as well as salt water impingement onto roads on James and Johns Islands as well as Daniel Island. Moderate coastal flooding is expected with the evening high tide as well, with water levels peaking around 7.5-7.7 MLLW between 9 PM and midnight. This should be high enough for another round of road closures downtown, so be mindful if your travels take you there Thursday night.
We stay warm on Tuesday with another day of high pressure at the surface and aloft driving temperatures above normal across the area. We’ll start the day near 70°, warming to the mid-80s in the afternoon under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. A few showers appear possible near the coast during the morning and early afternoon hours, but otherwise, many of us should get a rain-free day in.
We will need to continue to monitor the risk for coastal flooding around times of high tide, especially during the morning, with minor to moderate coastal flooding likely between 6-11 AM. (High tide peaks around 8:23 AM.) When we get into moderate flood stage, we start to run into more widespread road closures downtown, and given the timing, commute impacts appear likely. Allow extra time to reach your destination if downtown is where you’re headed in the morning. Another round of minor coastal flooding will be possible generally between 7-11 PM, which may yet close a few vulnerable roads but should not get as high as the morning high tide.
