Wednesday promises to be another warm day across the Lowcountry ahead of a cold front. A dearth of moisture will lead to mostly clear skies despite the front, and with winds picking up out of the west due to a tightening pressure gradient (30+ MPH gusts are possible), we will need to keep an eye on the risk for wildfire danger tomorrow given continued dry conditions across the area. Highs will top out in the low 80s with heat index values running potentially cooler than the air temperature with very low humidity expected. (I don’t get to say that often around here!) The aforementioned cold front will move through the area in the evening, bringing a wind shift to the northwest and a relatively quick cooldown. Cool advection will help knock Thursday morning’s temperatures down into the mid-40s, a tad chilly for this point in April.
Saturday continues to be our next best hope for significant rainfall across the area. It’s looking pretty good for that, too, with perhaps even some thunderstorms getting into the mix as well in the afternoon and evening hours. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, be looking at indoor options.
We’ll see increasing cloud cover on Tuesday as high pressure slips offshore, allowing for a little more moisture return off the Atlantic. Temperatures will also run a few degrees cooler than we saw today, but we still should remain relatively comfortable.
It looks as if we get much, if not all, of Tuesday in rain-free. A couple of the models continue to come in with some shower activity Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, but it’s unclear if this is overdone. Any rain that falls would be relatively light, but we’ll take whatever we can get. Otherwise, our next substantial rain chance arrives this weekend, most likely Saturday night. More on that as we get through the week.
After yesterday turned out to be quite a stunner, we have more good weather in store for today. Temperatures will head into the upper 70s with partly cloudy skies throughout the day. Cloud cover will come and go as debris clouds from showers and storms to our south encroach into the area at times, but we look to remain rain-free.
Our dry stretch of weather likely continues into Tuesday at a minimum. Our best chance of rain this month — and it has been a dry month, with only a trace of rain at the airport so far — may not arrive until later Saturday. More on this later today.
A cold front will sink into the area during the day on Thursday, cooling us down and kicking off scattered showers across the area from about mid-morning into the evening. It won’t rain all day or all the time, but be ready to don the rain gear as the day goes on. One thing you’ll notice is that we will run a few degrees cooler in the afternoon — this cooldown will persist into next week, but won’t be too heinous.
Rain chances will take a break on Friday before returning to the area on Saturday, which is increasingly looking somewhat wet. Shower chances will persist into the weekend and perhaps into the first part of next week. Temperatures will remain on the cool side of normal throughout.
After a dry cold front swings through tonight, we’ll start Tuesday comfortably cool with lows in the mid-50s. By the afternoon, we’ll be back in the low 80s with low humidity. All in all, another nice Tuesday that you probably wish was a Saturday.
As we get into Wednesday, a cold front will make its approach to the area. We could see a few showers in the evening, but rain chances are generally low (20-30%). Thursday looks mostly dry and about 5-6° cooler with temperatures in the mid-70s. We stay cool and partly cloudy on Friday and into the weekend, with some slight rain chances from Saturday to Monday.
There’s really not much to say about tomorrow other than it’s going to feel pretty good outside with high pressure at the surface and ridging continuing to build aloft, putting the kibosh on any cloud that even thinks about getting going. Highs in the 80s with low humidity and full sunshine will make you wish it wasn’t Tuesday. This great stretch of weather continues Wednesday with a few more clouds. Thursday looks dry, but clouds will thicken back up as the day goes on ahead of our next storm system, which brings shower and storm chances into the area for Friday. But for now, soak it in as you can! Before you know it, we’ll have six months of humidity.
It was a busy weather evening, with numerous reports of hail inland from the coast, a lot of lightning, and a lot of heavy rain. The storms will give way to a cold front swinging through overnight, and by Thursday morning, we will begin to see quite a cooldown. We’ll go from a high of 82° on Wednesday to highs struggling into the mid-60s for Thursday. (No fooling.) It’ll be breezy in the wake of the front, too. However, the sun will be out, and the early April sun angle will feel pretty good when balanced with the cooler air temperatures.
A cold front will approach the area from the west throughout the day Wednesday, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing later in the day as the front gets closer. A couple showers or storms can’t be ruled out in the afternoon well ahead of it, but the best rain chances will start early in the evening through the overnight. One or two storms could turn strong with gusty winds and hail, especially for those of you who are further inland. However, widespread severe weather is not expected.
We’ll be at the apex of this week’s temperature rollercoaster with highs topping out around 80° in the afternoon. Afterward, it’s a much different story…
We’ll put scattered showers into the weather mix for tomorrow as a trough of low pressure sets up offshore, perhaps allowing a little rain to head up into our neck of the woods primarily in the morning to midday timeframe (with slight chances in the afternoon). Temperatures will warm into the lower 70s in the afternoon.
Tuesday night, a warm front will lift north of the area, which will prevent temperatures from falling much below the low 60s as we get into Wednesday morning. Highs will top out in the low 80s on Wednesday afternoon, with the risk of a few thunderstorms coming along for the ride as we are well into the warm sector of our next storm system. A couple strong to severe storms are not out of the question, either, so we’ll want to watch that potential. After the front gets through, the bottom falls out of the mercury, but at least the sun stays out into the weekend!
After two days of record warmth, we look once again to approach record highs ahead of a cold front. The NWS forecast high of 87° is one degree off the record of 88° set in 2017 — it’ll be close.
We are already seeing a few downpours pop off in the I-95 corridor near St. George and Holly Hill this morning. However, the better rain chances arrive this afternoon and evening as a line of thunderstorms ahead of a cold front approaches the area. I’d expect thunderstorms to be approaching the I-95 corridor around 4-6 PM, with the line — perhaps in a more broken, weakened state — moving through the Charleston metro area by early to mid-evening. Our risk for severe weather today is low, but not necessarily zero, as a couple storms could still produce damaging wind gusts as they move by (especially if they arrive early enough to interact with the seabreeze circulation). Water temperatures remain generally in the mid-60s, which should lend a stabilizing influence as the storms approach the coast.
As always, keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day as arrival time estimates are fine-tuned and we see how trends evolve with the strength of these storms.
@chswx is community-supported, hype-averse weather information, preparedness tips, and alerts for the Charleston, SC Tri-County area (Berkeley, Charleston, Dorchester counties) by Jared Smith.