We’ll wake up to much cooler air on Leap Day as a cold front will be long-gone by Thursday morning. Temperatures will start in the mid-40s, warming only to the low 60s at best as high pressure wedges into the area. We’ll get some peeks of sun at times, but the mid-and-high cloud deck will prove formidable. It’ll be a breezy day as well, especially in the early going. By evening, we will start to see more in the way of low-level moisture return to the area, which could bring a few showers late Thursday.

We turn even warmer on Tuesday as high pressure moves further offshore and more warmer air is drawn northward. Temperatures start several degrees above normal, generally in the low 50s (and even warmer closer to the coast). From there, we’ll head well into the mid-70s in the afternoon despite an uptick in cloud cover compared to Monday as a disturbance moves by to the north. We’ll stay out of the rain, though. Winds will run a little on the breezy side as well, but nothing too crazy.

One more quiet day of weather lies ahead before a brief round of rain for Friday. Temperatures on Thursday start in the upper 30s — still running a little below normal for this point in February — but warm to the mid-to-upper 60s in the afternoon as southerly flow moderates the airmass a little bit more. We’ll start the day on the clear side, but clouds will gradually increase ahead of a cold front that’ll affect the area on Friday with the first shower chances in a few days.

We have a chilly night ahead as clearing skies and light winds allow for good radiational cooling conditions. This should allow morning lows on Tuesday to reach freezing for the first time since January 22, when we started the day at a frigid 23°. It won’t be quite as cold — freezing temperatures in the metro would be relatively short-lived — but with some light wind in the morning, it’ll feel more like the upper 20s as we get back to regular order after Washington’s Birthday. There will be plenty of sunshine, though, and that’ll help counteract some cooler air continuing to filter into the area, allowing highs to top out in the low 60s once again.

We got close to 70° on Wednesday, but we should reach it on Thursday with another day of mostly sunny skies under the influence of high pressure. We start the day around 40° and warm quickly to the upper 60s by midday, and will likely peak in the low 70s during the early part of the afternoon. Winds will shift to the southwest and will pick up a little in the afternoon, with speeds around 10 MPH becoming common later in the day.

The storm system that’s soaked us on Monday will lift away from the area on Tuesday, clearing us out but also producing a period of gusty winds overnight as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Watch for gusts 30-35 MPH at times, especially on bridges and overpasses, that will affect the area through the morning commute. We should see gusts calm down gradually as the day goes on, thankfully. Clouds will depart and temperatures will warm to the low-to-mid-60s after an upper 40s start, yielding a pleasant and seasonable mid-February day.

Sunday will be one last warm and largely rain-free day before shower chances arrive in the evening. Temperatures Sunday start in the mid-50s — 10°+ above normal for this point in the year — and head to the mid-70s as warmer and more moist air continues to surge into the area ahead of a storm system approaching from the west. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, though a few breaks in the clouds will still be possible especially in the morning.

By evening, we should start to see some shower activity begin to move in from the west. Guidance increasingly suggests that the best chance for showers Sunday will be found later in the evening and generally inland of 17-A. That being said, it looks like we get much of Sunday in without precipitation; just be ready for some rain as you head to and from any Super Bowl plans you may have.

We have another chilly start ahead on Thursday as lows drop to the low-to-mid-30s across much of the metro one more time as high pressure moves overhead. We’ll see mostly sunny skies for a fair bit of Thursday before high pressure begins to slip further offshore and cloud cover starts to increase later in the day. Temperatures will show signs of a subtle warming trend as we top out in the low to mid-60s Thursday afternoon, a few degrees warmer than we have been the past couple days. Overall, it’ll end up being a fairly climatologically typical February day after the cooler-than-normal start.

Showers have ended and cloud cover will diminish overnight, yielding a sunny Tuesday — in stark contrast to the dreariness that was Monday. However, high pressure trying to build in from the west will help to keep the gradient pinched as low pressure remains offshore, keeping north to northeast winds elevated throughout the day. Temperatures will start in the upper 30s, but the wind chill will make it feel more like 30°, so dress appropriately in the morning. We’ll warm only to the mid-to-upper 50s despite the sunshine, too.

The other issue for Tuesday will be the risk for some minor to moderate coastal flooding very early Tuesday morning. High tide around 4:32am is forecast to reach between 7.5-7.7′. While we fell just short of coastal flood criteria Monday morning, it certainly seems more likely that we’ll achieve flood stage on Tuesday. So, if you have early travels that take you downtown, be ready to reroute around flooded roads.

Our run of quiet weather comes to a brief pause starting Sunday as a storm system approaches the area. We’ll see cloud cover head up throughout the day, and showers will be increasingly possible as we get into the later afternoon and evening hours. Expect temperatures to start in the upper 30s to around 40°, with highs topping out around 60°. Northeasterly winds around the storm system will be increasing as the day goes on, and it could be a bit gusty by afternoon, so keep that in mind as well as you head out and about.