Memorial Day across the Lowcountry, while not nearly as springlike as last year’s, will feel appropriate as the unofficial start of summer. We’ll start the day in the low 70s away from the locally warmer coastline, heading into the upper 80s to near 90° away from the beaches by afternoon before the seabreeze rolls through. Temperatures at the beaches will top out in the low to mid-80s, making for a really good day to get some sun. (Just mind the high UV index and apply sunscreen liberally!)
There’s a tiny chance we could see a shower or storm in the morning as a little energy ripples on by, but that risk is rather low. The better — albeit still slight, all things considered — chance for showers and maybe a thunderstorm comes in the afternoon as we reach peak heating along and ahead of the seabreeze. Winds are onshore throughout a good bit of the atmosphere as surface high pressure remains offshore and a 585-588 decameter ridge remains centered over eastern North Carolina, so this should allow for the seabreeze to make good movement inland throughout the afternoon, limiting the risk for any thunderstorms near the beaches especially after 2PM. With limited to no wind shear to work with, thunderstorms will be pulse in nature and thus pop and subsequently collapse. All this to say, though, that the risk of any one location seeing storms is quite low — just be sure to have an indoor backup plan in case it’s needed briefly. Remember: When thunder roars, go indoors!
Temperatures will fall into the mid-70s in the evening, and any showers should be long gone by the time Nduduzo Makhathini takes the Cistern stage at Spoleto tomorrow night.
Finally, don’t forget to take a pause tomorrow to honor those we’ve lost in combat and their families. That’s why a lot of us are off, after all.
Thursday looks to be another warm and somewhat muggy day as onshore flow keeps humidity up a notch or two. Temperatures will top out a little warmer than they did today, ending up around on the higher end of the mid-80s away from the coastline; factor in the humidity and we’ll see heat indices running in the low 90s. We look to stay rain-free, though, as drier air aloft stays in place for one more day.
We remain warm and muggy on Tuesday as we remain on the warm side of a stalled frontal boundary to our north. Storm coverage should be a little lower for the afternoon, generally driven by daytime heating and the seabreeze, but a few spots may still yet get some heavy rain and even some gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though. Highs in the afternoon top out in the upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s.
Later in the evening, the aforementioned frontal boundary should get a bit of a move-on as low pressure heads eastward across North Carolina. Some of the convection-allowing models push the front into the area as early as 9-10 PM, accompanied by showers and maybe some thunderstorms. We’ll see how this ultimately pans out. Regardless, we should see the front — and some slightly drier air — at least temporarily poke into the area for Wednesday, stalling out over or just south of the Tri-County. Wait and see, but for now, we’ll continue to take the shots for beneficial rainfall, as long as the extra-curricular activity remains to a minimum.
The hottest weather thus far in 2022 looks to arrive on Thursday. We’ll start the day in the upper 60s and warm well into the mid-90s in the afternoon. The record high of 96°, set in 1996, will be challenged under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. Heat indices could run close to 100° in the afternoon, so be sure to hydrate and take breaks accordingly.
As a series of mid-level disturbances ripple through the area, there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms to fire off and move through in the late afternoon and evening hours. IF storms can fire — and this is a big IF — they could be on the strong to severe side. The thermodynamics certainly look good for storms to produce damaging wind gusts and large hail, but it remains to be seen if they can get going thanks to a strong cap on the atmosphere. Gonna be a game of wait, see, and watch the satellite and radar in the meantime.
A cold front will sink south of the area very early Tuesday morning, ushering in a slightly cooler and drier airmass for the next couple days before the heat pump really kicks up starting Thursday.
Of course, by “slightly cooler and drier” I mean “it won’t be 90° with a dewpoint in the mid-60s in the afternoon,” so keep that in mind as you set expectations for what Tuesday will feel like. But, indeed, it should feel a little better than Monday did. With a slightly drier airmass, the afternoon cumulus field should be a little bit more scattered, allowing for more sunshine. Highs top out in the mid-to-upper 80s thanks to northeasterly flow developing across the area, coolest at the immediate coast.
The northeasterly winds combined with the recent full moon at perigee should further enhance the risk for tidal flooding with the evening high tide (peaks a little after 10 PM), with another round of moderate flooding likely between 7 and midnight. Be ready for some sporadic road closures once again as a result.
As foretold earlier, we’ll get one more day of comfortable warmth on Wednesday before a warm front lifts north and the heat pump turns on for Thursday and Friday. Expect highs in the mid-90s for the first time this year away from the coast then, with heat indices perhaps creeping into the upper 90s. Summer’s just about here, folks, whether we want it or not!
After a rather gorgeous — if not a touch windy — stretch of weather across the Lowcountry, rain chances return to the forecast for Thursday afternoon and evening as coastal low pressure drifts closer to the area. We’ll start to see an increase in cloud cover overnight into tomorrow morning, but the best rain chances should hold off until the afternoon. We may be contending with some showers for the evening drive, so be alert to that possibility. Temperatures will still run on the cool side as breezy north and northeast winds continue across the area; with the cloud cover and approaching rainfall, we shouldn’t see highs much warmer than the mid-70s.
Mother’s Day in the Lowcountry looks pretty outstanding, weather-wise, if not a touch chilly for this point in the year. A reinforcing cold front will come through overnight, helping to drop tomorrow morning’s lows to the mid-50s. Highs will only reach the low 70s despite mostly sunny skies as a trough lingers aloft. This is well below normal for this time of year — the normal high for May 8 is 82°!
We’ll continue this run of below-normal temperatures for a couple more days. Lows could bottom out in the upper 40s in spots on Monday morning before a warming trend begins. Even still, expect temperatures to run right at or just a touch below normal for much of next week. We have all summer to head back into the 90s each day, after all, so let’s get some more spring in while we still can.
Thursday looks to be the hottest day of 2022 thus far, with highs in the low 90s expected away from the coast. (It’ll be in the low to mid-80s at the beaches, making for a good getaway if you can get away with it.) Despite a cold front stalled nearby, expect a little too much dry air aloft to get much in the way of thunderstorm formation in the afternoon (though you can never totally, 100% rule out a stray storm in this kind of regime).
We stay hot heading into Friday, with another day touching 90° anticipated. We should see some more thunderstorms, though, especially as the front begins to work into the area in the afternoon and overnight into Saturday. The front will kick the summer-like weather out for a few days at least starting Sunday, with highs around 80° making for what looks to be quite a nice weather day to round out the weekend!
After Monday became the warmest day so far in 2022 with a high of 87°, Tuesday should come right back and at least match that with another round of warm and muggy weather. We’ll start the day in the mid-to-upper 60s away from the coast. (I wouldn’t be surprised to see temperatures not get below 70° in some spots at the beaches.) Temperatures will warm to the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies ahead of the seabreeze.
With high pressure still in play across the Lowcountry, afternoon shower and storm chances in the Charleston metro should stay at a minimum, but won’t be zero (as Daniel Island found out today with an absolute gullywasher). There will be a better chance of rain along and inland of I-95 where storms will have an easier time getting going thanks to surface temperatures approaching 90°. These storms should fall apart, though, as they move eastward toward the coast in the evening as sinking and cooler air behind the seabreeze circulation will help tamp out convection.
We continue to get warmer as the week goes on, with Thursday looking quite probably like our first 90° day of the year. A cold front could make Friday and the weekend a little unsettled, but will also restore some order to temperatures, bringing them back to early May norms by the end of the weekend.
Thursday continues where today left off, with a seasonably cool morning followed by a comfortably warm afternoon in the upper 70s, right where we should be at this point in April. Humidity will be low once again as dewpoints mix out into the low 40s, yielding relative humidity values approaching 25% during the peak of the afternoon. It’ll be another good day for an outdoor lunch or evening walk as a result — just make sure you’ve got some sunscreen!