Our solid start to October continues on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures continuing with high pressure in control. The only potential issue will be the risk for moderate coastal flooding with high tide just before noon; there could be travel disruptions as some of y’all look to grab lunch, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on. Otherwise, though, it’ll be another very nice day.

Rain will generally be a non-factor in our weather starting Thursday (except for maybe some brushes near the coast) heading into Friday and the rest of the weekend. We start the day around 65° with some cloud cover in the area. A northeasterly breeze courtesy of high pressure wedging into the area from the northeast will continue to keep temperatures down to about 80° at warmest in the afternoon with cloud cover hanging around. We should see some sun break through at times as well, though.

The main weather concern will be coastal flooding at times of high tide, and it could be somewhat disruptive to the morning commute in particular. High tide around 7:30am will top out around 7.9′, which is the high end of moderate flood stage in Charleston Harbor. The evening high tide should reach even higher, with water levels around 8.1′ expected around 8pm. Watch for road closures as you commute Thursday morning and then again a little later Thursday evening, particularly if downtown is in your plans.

We have one more day of the upper 80s in store before changes arrive in the form of a wedge of high pressure building in from the northeast for the rest of the week. Tuesday starts in the upper 60s inland to perhaps mid-to-upper 70s closer to the coast. Highs then head into the upper 80s once more, and with dewpoints edging up into the upper 60s, it’ll feel closer to 90° or so. From there, clouds will increase and a few showers should break out in the afternoon, though nothing over-the-top is really expected. There may be a rumble of thunder late, but overall, not expecting much in the way of lightning. Shower chances continue into the evening, and really for much of the rest of the work week from there.

Rain-free conditions come to an end Thursday as we should see some scattered showers from time to time courtesy of developing low pressure well offshore. We’ll get off to a much warmer start than the previous couple days, with lows across the metro in the upper 60s to around 70°. Expect a scattering of showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder throughout the day, coming ashore within onshore flow. A few heavy downpours can’t be ruled out. Highs top out in the low 80s.

We’ll get close to coastal flood stage with Thursday afternoon’s high tide, forecast to peak around 12:41 PM, thanks to the increasing northeasterly flow, which tends to pile water up quite efficiently, so we’ll need to keep an eye on that in case some salt water works into the area.

We have another pretty day ahead for Tuesday (weather-wise, anyway). Temperatures start out quite nicely, with much of the metro starting in the low 60s. Some spots further inland could bottom out in the upper 50s, while places closer to the coast will generally feel warmer lows in the upper 60s. Temperatures head to the mid-80s in the afternoon. Dewpoints will mix down to the mid-50s except perhaps at the immediate coast, sending relative humidity values south of 40% once more. Overall, no complaints in the weather department.

After a fairly glorious day of weather Saturday, Sunday will make a 180° right back into more unsettled territory as high pressure moves offshore ahead of a cold front. A wave of low pressure will develop back in Georgia, helping to drag a warm front across the area in the morning. We’ll see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity possibly as soon as mid-morning, but the most likely time for rain will be in the afternoon hours through about sunset. Heavy rain will be possible, with the potential for rainfall in the 2-3″ range for some locations. Isolated flooding will be possible as a result. Additionally, the aforementioned surface low pressure looks to track inland of the area, and could enhance some low-level shear. If instability can develop — and that is a big if — a strong to severe storm or two will be possible, and there may even be a couple rotating cells. We’ll keep an eye on this, but the risk for severe storms generally remains low especially given the rain-cooled air. We start the day in the upper 60s, but highs only top out in the low 80s given the risk for widespread rain in the afternoon.

After this passes, it looks like we get off to a solid start to the work week (weather-wise, anyway), with mid-80s highs, comfortable low 60s dewpoints, and ample sunshine.

A cold front will slip offshore early Thursday morning, but we won’t quite be feeling it just yet as some showers and thunderstorms will still be possible as moisture lingers across the area during the day Thursday. Highs top out once again in the upper 80s before showers and a few storms fire. Instability isn’t great and severe weather is not expected, though some heavy rain will yet be possible at times. The best chance to see a shower or storm looks to be in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Tuesday’s forecast will once again feature a seasonably warm and humid airmass that’ll give rise to some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, generally along and ahead of the seabreeze. We start the day in the low-to-mid-70s. Some fog may be around as we start the day, so be ready for possible visibility reductions particularly as you get further inland. Highs top out around 90° in the afternoon before a few storms fire, which will cool things off for some of us. A couple strong storms are possible, but don’t expect a widespread severe weather issue.

Sunday should have a similar flair to Saturday with scattered storms and sunshine mixing in afterward. Like Saturday, we could see a few storms possible in the morning before gradually pushing inland during the day. And like Saturday, we should also see some decent sunshine kick in as well, with highs approaching 90° in the afternoon. Overall, not expecting a full rainout anywhere, but a few spots could see some heavy downpours with a quick inch of rain or so possible (much like parts of West Ashley and North Charleston saw this morning!)

We have one more rain-free and rather warm day coming up on Thursday. Expect highs to once again top out in the mid-90s under partly cloudy skies, with some humidity mixing in to drive heat indices to the upper 90s to around 100°. It’s worth noting that the NWS forecast high of 95°, if it did indeed come to pass, would tie the daily high temperature record set in 1941 and then tied in 1947 and 2019. (For reference, last year’s high on September 7 topped out a degree shy of the record.) Ridging will weaken throughout the day, but much of us should expect to get the day in rain-free. I don’t know that I’d totally rule out a shower or storm closer to I-95, though.